UFC 76

[Tornado69]

Any links out there yet ? Anyone know the line on the Forrest/Shogun fight ? Anyone thinking -400 and below is a solid bet for Shogun ? Forrest strength is stand up but I don't see how he stands a shot against Shogun at standup.

[MikeyPatriot]

Did you even try going to the betting sites? The 76 lines have been up just as long as 75.

Jon Fitch -115
Diego Sanchez -115

Mauricio Rua -325
Forrest Griffin +250

Chuck Liddell -450
Keith Jardine +300

Courtesy of Bodog

[igetbadbeat]

Book maker

UFC 76: - ANAHEIM CALIFORNIA - $250 LIMIT -8:00 PM 32571 KEITH JARDINE - - +270
32572 CHUCK LIDDELL - - -330

8:00 PM 32573 DIEGO SANCHEZ - - +105
32574 JON FITCH - - -135

8:00 PM 32575 FORREST GRIFFIN - - +290
32576 MAURICIO RUA - - -360

8:00 PM 32577 THIAGO TAVARES - - +125
32578 TYSON GRIFFIN - - -155

[rsigley]

i like how bodog puts up ufc lines weeks before events, but can't put up ncaaf football lines til the day before most of the time

and baseball lines sometimes hours before the game starts

[Tornado69]

There's only 2 sites I bet on that I really follow/trust .. I would like to be able to transfer $ around to different sites but god damn neteller ruined that for me and I haven't really wanted to trust any other companies since then. Lines seem to jump really good the day or 2 before the fight anyone think Shogun might get under -300 ? To maybe -280 ? -250 ?

[DannyOcean_]

If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...

How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?

I believe the variance in these fights is much higher than any of us suspect, to be quite honest. I'd be all over forrest if he was above +300 the same way i was all over Kongo.

Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable. It's not like shogun cleanly picks people apart, he rushes in and loves to bang and brawl... It's a high variance method to use especially with another guy who loves to clinch/brawl.

Yeah... keep in mind that favorites are not always as huge as you think. MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better.

[MrFeelNothin]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...

How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?

I believe the variance in these fights is much higher than any of us suspect, to be quite honest. I'd be all over forrest if he was above +300 the same way i was all over Kongo.

Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable. It's not like shogun cleanly picks people apart, he rushes in and loves to bang and brawl... It's a high variance method to use especially with another guy who loves to clinch/brawl.

Yeah... keep in mind that favorites are not always as huge as you think. MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Shogun's style is especially high variance considering he has only lost once in the past 4 years.

Not saying laying that much chalk is good here, just disagreeing with that statement.

[jono]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough, but at -325 I'm all over this

[J.C. Alvarado]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you even try going to the betting sites? The 76 lines have been up just as long as 75.

Jon Fitch -115
Diego Sanchez -115

Mauricio Rua -325
Forrest Griffin +250

Chuck Liddell -450
Keith Jardine +300

Courtesy of Bodog

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi, I havent read the whole thread I read the first couple of pages and I'll read the rest later. I've been a UFC fan forever but I just recently got reeaally into it and into betting it (after I went to the Lidell v rampage fight). I think there's good value in a lot of fights, particularly in betting dogs when they're usually coinflip matches...ie Rampage, Congo etc....So, yea I'll be posting in these MMA threads often now to try and get some good bets in.

Anyway I was looking at the lines on bodog and its pretty sick...I reaally hope that I can go to bellagio tomorrow and see some better lines than these.

As it stands right now

I'm either not betting the Rua fight, or betting small on Forrest at +235, I'll bet a decent amount if I can get +300 on griffin or -200 on Rua which I doubt I'll get.

I'm probably not betting the lidell fight just cuz I like him too much and want to root for him...but I might get greedy and bet small on Jardine at +300

I'm betting a good amount on Fitch getting decent value on what I think will be a tough ass fight for Diego comming from a loss. +115 I think is decent, Even though Sanchez is sick I've always liked Fitch and anything can happen, and from the sounds of it (rogan and white's comments for the most part) the fight is more of a coinflip.

What do you guys think?

[trixtrix]

..uh, what?