in BB w/ AKo v SB re-re-raise

baltostar · #1 07-22-2007, 07:37 PM

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $50/$100
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $9063
UTG+1: $3585
MP1: $5800
MP2: $11146
MP3: $6747
CO: $2150
Button: $1507
SB: $1800
BALTOSTAR: $4595

Pre-flop: (9 players) BALTOSTAR is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
7 folds, SB raises to $200, BALTOSTAR raises to $600, SB raises all-in $1800, BALTOSTAR

Pokerfarian · #2 07-22-2007, 07:52 PM

insta-snap-calls

Coz · #3 07-22-2007, 07:59 PM

Call! We really need to cut down on the can I fold AK posts.

baltostar · #4 07-22-2007, 07:59 PM

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $50/$100
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $9063
UTG+1: $3585
MP1: $5800
MP2: $11146
MP3: $6747
CO: $2150
Button: $1507
SB: $1800
BALTOSTAR: $4595

Pre-flop: (9 players) BALTOSTAR is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
7 folds, SB raises to $200, BALTOSTAR raises to $600, SB raises all-in $1800, BALTOSTAR calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($3600, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $3600)

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($3600, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $3600)

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($3600, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $3600)

Results:
Final pot: $3600
SB showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BALTOSTAR showed A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Coz · #5 07-22-2007, 08:05 PM

You got unlucky with AK it happens to all of us. You wouldn't of posted this if villian flipped 88 and you flopped a boat right?

baltostar · #6 07-22-2007, 08:14 PM

The reason I posted is :

1. villain raised it up only 2xBB -- which can be a sign of trapping

2. after villain's re-re-raise, I'm getting 2:1 to call, so it's a tough laydown on pot-odds basis, but it's also well-indicated that villain is trapping

3. villain's M is 11.67 , hardly putting him into desperation mode , so there is little likelihood he is re-re-stealing

Pokerfarian · #7 07-22-2007, 08:25 PM

This is absolutely, no where near close to being close. Even if we gave his SB raise followed by 4-bet AI the way overly tight range of JJ+,AKs, and it's much much wider, it would still be a call.

baltostar · #8 07-22-2007, 08:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is absolutely, no where near close to being close. Even if we gave his SB raise followed by 4-bet AI the way overly tight range of JJ+,AKs, and it's much much wider, it would still be a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

With that range, I'm narrowly behind AKs, a bit behind JJ,QQ and well behind AA,KK ... making it a definite fold.

Pokerfarian · #9 07-22-2007, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is absolutely, no where near close to being close. Even if we gave his SB raise followed by 4-bet AI the way overly tight range of JJ+,AKs, and it's much much wider, it would still be a call.

[/ QUOTE ]
With that range, I'm narrowly behind AKs, a bit behind JJ,QQ and well behind AA,KK ... making it a definite fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.210% 31.39% 04.82% 128999604 19807962.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 63.790% 58.97% 04.82% 242337432 19807962.00 { JJ+, AKs }
2:1 odds, 36% equity ==> call
Much much wider range ==> super insta easy trivial call

baltostar · #10 07-22-2007, 10:02 PM

You've calculated my hand equity subsequent to his reraise. This gets into tricky territory, but I think the EV+ mantra is wrong in this regard: not every all-in decision should be evaluated in terms of pot:cost-to-call.

My initial re-raise partially serves as a cost of determining if he is trapping. Once established that he is trapping that cost must be mostly included in odds to call. So, it's more like 1800:1800 or 1:1.

One could argue that the 600 was the price to put him on a range and so now it should be strictly EV of my hand vs 2:1 pot odds ... but this is spurious logic.

Why? Because: Would you make plays all day long where you spend 7.5% of your stack to establish that you're in an EV=0 situation and then take the coin flip for 33% of your stack ?