86s OTB on wet board

[Sardine]

Villain is 30/20/3.2 over 252 hands.

No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $53.35
BB: $103.70
UTG: $50.00
MP: $44.15
CO: $21.75
Hero (BTN): $50.00

UTG posts $0.50
Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">MP raises to $2.25</font>, CO calls $2.25, Hero calls $2.25, 3 folds

Flop: ($8) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $8.00</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero ?

what say you?

[You're No Daisy]

Take control of the hand and raise. He may have missed the flop altogether. Most flops miss most people and since he's aggressive I'll assume he's c-betting all flops. Also, what's your image like? Have you been TAG, nitty, or loose aggressive. If you've been tight, use your position. A raise might do the trick here.

AC

[oh well...]

Yeah, I think the play here is to raise this flop. Hopefully you take it down but if you don't hand plays much easier than if you had called. Folding is too soft obv.

[Sardine]

Some hands were mined, so I hadn't been on the table long. Therefore I had no image.

For those who say raise, how much, the pot is larger than normal....

[Nick C]

Well, here we see the hazards of cold-calling with the 86s in the first place (I'm not saying you should never do it, but it does have its hazards -- I mean, you flopped pretty damn well here, and I'm still not thrilled about the situation).

So . . . I'd imagine an immediate raise will take down the pot immediately a decent chunk of the time, with the problem of course being that a raise to even just $20 (barely more than a min-raise) commits you in a spot where, if you face a push, you have to call as probably something like a 7:3 dog (or maybe a little worse). Even if we just get called, we're still investing a big chunk of our stack as a dog, with dubious folding equity later in the hand.

Meanwhile, versus a hand you were about 50/50 with anyway (UI high cards), you will probably get a fold, and there's a decent chance you'll drive out a hand like TT too. But you are basically giving odds on your semibluff.

A semibluff-call is another option, and I think maybe it's the way to go. That way, you can try representing spades if one falls on the turn and Villain checks, and also your hand is nicely disguised so that if your actual draw does hit and Villain also has a hand, you're probably getting paid.

You'll lose the pot more often this way (versus an immediate raise), but unless Villain is a habitual 2-barreler postflop, you're are going to have more information on the turn, and that seems to me like a better time to decide how much you want to invest in the hand.

[Profish2285]

I think raising here is terrible to be honest. The villain just lead a post size bet into 2 others and you think hes weak? Do you have any read to make you feel this way? If he is an unknown I cant imagine raising here being +ev.

[oh well...]

[ QUOTE ]
I think raising here is terrible to be honest. The villain just lead a post size bet into 2 others and you think hes weak? Do you have any read to make you feel this way? If he is an unknown I cant imagine raising here being +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP isn't really donking here since he opened PF, but he is c-betting into 2 opponents. Regardless I hate a call here, I just don't see how that can be good. If turn blanks he can double barrel w/ air and we have to fold. Also, I think we can raise flop and fold to a shove. We're getting better than good odds but I'm sure we are crushed so often it might actually make it -EV. Also, folding on the flop is completely acceptable.

[Movelong]

100%AGREE TO FOLD HERE, -EV

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
MP isn't really donking here since he opened PF, but he is c-betting into 2 opponents. Regardless I hate a call here, I just don't see how that can be good. If turn blanks he can double barrel w/ air and we have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have a draw that will hit about 1 in 6 on the turn, and if Villain really has a strong hand, we should have good implied odds. What cuts into those odds somewhat is that sometimes we'll hit our straight on the turn but the board will become 3-flush and give Villain a flush (occasionally) or a redraw to a flush (more frequently).

As compensation, there will be those times when Villain was c-betting A-high or pocket deuces on the flop and will check-fold the turn (this cuts into the implied odds I was talking about, I know, but on the other hand we'd want to call the flop with 32o if we knew Villain's plan was to c-bet the flop and then check-fold the turn). Hopefully Villain will slow down on the turn more often than he'll two-barrel big with air or play stack-a-donk with a monster, but in any case, my thinking is that calling the flop is probably slightly profitable.

I mean, even if we were just checking behind on a turn blank, that would increase our chances of hitting our hand enough that if we knew that turn check were coming, our flop call would be reasonable. (Plus, if we do get checked to on the turn, this increases the chances that we have pair outs.)

I don't know. This seems to me like one of those spots where we probably can't call for implied odds alone, but once you throw in a little stealing equity later in the hand, we probably can call.

[Sardine]

At the time, I figuired I would raise/commit myself as the villain was fairly aggressive and could be continuation betting a fair amount. Given the villains aggression and the fact that he could think I was drawing to flush, I was also thinking the chance of getting a 'free' river was lower than usual, as Villain could reason a double barrel being good too. So at the time, I didn't like call option. Although Nick C made some great points, and I think this line should be considered.

Firstly, what I didn't rationalize during the hand was Villain was firing on textured flop with 2 opponents behind him. This should decrease the likelihood this is a cb w UI overs and increase likelihood Villain has a legit hand as mentioned by Profish.

Secondly, if the board was rainbow, I like a raise alot more. If villain has a real hand he is more likely to call a wet, textured board like this vs. a dryer board. So my folding equity isn't as high as usual.

If you agree with the later 2 points, it would appear we should lean toward call or possibly even fold if Villain is going to barrel again. Agree?