X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse

[DcifrThs]

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Don't confuse the CPI with the 'core inflation' measure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Core_inflation
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The older preferred measure of inflation in the United States was the Consumer Price Index. This is still used as the indicator for most other countries, and is presented monthly in the US by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index tends to change more on a month to month basis than does "core inflation". This is because core inflation eliminates products that can have temporary price shocks (i.e. energy, food products). Core inflation is thus intended to be an indicator and predictor of underlying long-term inflation.


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Except of course, by removing the products that supposedly have short term volitility but are also very inflationary in the long term, you bias down the resulting number.

Not to mention goods substitution, which has got to be the craziest bunch of [censored] Alan Greenspan ever came up with.

"Well, as prices of the things in the basket of goods increase, the rational consumer will substitute other, cheaper goods, so we should too in our calculations."

No, that's not intended to falsify the inflation numbers AT ALL . . .

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yea, they didn't come up with that after study after study proved that inflation was upwardly biased or anything. they clearly had the sole intention of biasing the inflation figures downward. and it isn't like that's the only source of upward bias (i.e. not substituting) or anything either...

if you'd like i can find and cite the studies that don't come from the federal reserve board or any govt agency or think tank.

Barron
NOTE: i'm not saying that the fed or other federal agencies/govt's aren't downwardly biasing inflation, only that they didn't form a cabal to get together and decide to do it willy nilly. they had a chioce: an upwardly biased inflation figure, or a downwardly biased inflation figure. they chose the latter for whatever nafarious reason you assign them.

[T50_Omaha8]

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So all those holding them have a depreciating asset. At some point, the rats are going to desert that ship. This will precipitate the sell-off of USD, and their international value will literally plummet (imho of course).

[/ QUOTE ] This is where your logic fails.

The dollar is not a depreciatING asset. It is a depreciatED asset. This is why the value of the dollar jumps up and down, over and over again, countless times throughout the day.

If the dollar is expected to go down, investors will sell their dollar assets, and the dollar will go down.

You are thus claiming that you have some information that is not reflected in the market value for the dollar, or that you have a more accurate assesment of a dollar's value than anybody else.

Kudos, if that's so. You'll be a wealthy man soon.

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Incorrect huh...... think about what you said here in 3, 5, 7 years. A loaf of bread with be ~7 bucks..... Gas will be ~7 bucks a gallon...

[/ QUOTE ] I only hope that you do the same.

[The once and future king]

The Fed has simply reduced the price of America.

[Mr. Now]

Boro,

I agree CPI and Core are both statistical swindles. The macro effect of these swindles is lower wage growth in the blue-collar brackets.

Employers cite the authority of gov't-generated stats, to rationalize low-to-no annual increase in wages. This creates a huge latency between real inflation and resulting wage pressure.

Employers love the CPI and Core numbers. (Especially Core)

[Mr. Now]

Barron,

I believe you might be off a little here. The prime recipients of the benefits of any currency dilution are the gov't issuer and the 1st-tier in-the-club, no-bid contractors such as Halliburton, Blackstone, and other huge gov't contractors.

All of these spend diluted dollars at pre-dilute prices. As such, they are huge winners in a rigged game.

To state that they flipped a coin on the up-down bias of the numbers (CPI and Core) may be off a little bit.

Nash, in his game theory work cites collusion as super-rational. Given this, it is hard to argue your coin-flip position IF you believe dilution, especially the currency dilution happening now, is fully intentional.

[Mr. Now]

Staples go up in dollar terms after the diluted dollars percolate from the govt to the person buying eggs and milk.

This has absolutely nothing to do with speculation and everything to do with more dollars in effective circulation.

"The speculator's greatest and truest ally is underlying conditions." - Livermore

That about sums it up when it comes to the dollar -- and gold.

If you were responsible for the currency and had plans to convert to a new one (like the Amero) you would scoop out all the value before you made the trade.

Wake up
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...rby062806.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amero#_note-amero

Its coming. First the dollar must be 'adjusted'.
Which is exactly what is happening, now. (Read the Wikipedia article to see why.)

[DcifrThs]

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Staples go up in dollar terms after the diluted dollars percolate from the govt to the person buying eggs and milk.

This has absolutely nothing to do with speculation and everything to do with more dollars in effective circulation.

"The speculator's greatest and truest ally is underlying conditions." - Livermore

That about sums it up when it comes to the dollar -- and gold.

If you were responsible for the currency and had plans to convert to a new one (like the Amero) you would scoop out all the value before you made the trade.

Wake up
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...rby062806.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amero#_note-amero

Its coming. First the dollar must be 'adjusted'.
Which is exactly what is happening, now. (Read the Wikipedia article to see why.)

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the amero isn't happeneing. i don't know where you fall on the "fed is evil" spectrum, but if you are anywhere near ACists and the like, you should be the first on the line of people who think the amero would never happen.

in order for that to occur, the monetary policy of mex, can, and usa would be linked. no way the evil fed would ever share (no matter how small of a share) its ability to set monetary policy nor give up the money it makes off seignorage.

that is from the perspective of the "cabal of the fed" group.

Barron

[dethgrind]

I'm planning an expensive trip to Europe next year and I'm currently saving at 4.5% in dollars. Is there anything I can do to protect against a possible dollar collapse? Can I open a savings account in euros while living in the U.S. and get a 4 to 5% return?

[Nikla]

So what is a realistic dollardrop? I see Peter Schiff predicts a 50% drop at a minimum. I'm stuck with alot of dollars due to taxproblems and have experienced a 12% drop against my currency in the last 4 weeks. Do I get out now and take the loss or is there any merit to holding on looking for a rally? All comments are much appreciated.

-Nikla

[kimchi]

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I'm planning an expensive trip to Europe next year and I'm currently saving at 4.5% in dollars. Is there anything I can do to protect against a possible dollar collapse? Can I open a savings account in euros while living in the U.S. and get a 4 to 5% return?

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