What are bets for? Long post

[levAA]

What are bets for?

After reading gobboboy's x-post about not betting for information http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=3#Post12347694 I was thinking about this issue.

I like gobboboy's thread cause he tries to simple things up, which is always a useful proposal as we all try to come to easier decisions. The problem is that poker is not an easy game and to every subject there are different views.

This intention to this thread is not to disagree with gobboboy. I agree with most of the points he made; but to bring in a different, maybe a more differentiated view to betting/raising.

So if we search the literature - what are there the main reasons to bet:

1.) Value
2.) Bluff
3.) Fold equity
4.) Feed the pot
5.) Steal the blinds
6.) Protect my hand against a possible draw
7.) Only chance to win a pot
8.) Get information
9.) And I am sure there are more reasons

Bets in different situations made for different purposes have also special names like c-bets, blocking-bets, value-bets, probe-bets and so on.

Where we all agree is that a bet should be done with a goal.

<u>Example: </u>
We play 9handed, equal stack-sizes $1500, we raise preflop 3xBB with 55 from the CO, button and BB call, flop is 578r, BB checks - we decide to bet.

So if we see bets only from the 2D-view as value and bluffing bets - this bet is clearly a value bet - as we hold a set, which is likely to be the best hand right now. But aren't there more aspects for this bet?
Another aspect could be - we want to protect your set against a possible straight draw. Or we want to feed the pot as our goal is to get all the chips in the middle with the best hand. Or we want to get information what our opponents holdings might be - can we milk the cause they have a flush draw? Does anybody have a hand that already beats us? So while we all agree that to get information is not the main reason to bet here it's something like a side-effect. But unless we don't have a lock this information can get more and more important as the hand continues.

Let's analyze the 2D-approach to betting further:

.) Value bet

Therefore we need a hand that we think is the best.

<u>Example:</u>
Table full of donkish limpers; 3 limpers, we complete with Ts8s in the SB, BB checks, flop is A88r. As the table is loose and any Ax might call/raise us we decide to bet. This can be seen as a value bet, the informational part is minimal.

Same hand on a table full of pros. Sklansky, is playing UTG. We know that he sometimes limps with AA in early position. Now the same hand can turn and suddenly our bet from the SB gets a more informative character, cause if we get raised by UTG we have to consider we might be beaten. Still we all would see this as a value bet.

.) Bluffing

Therefore we need a hand that we think is not the best, but there is a good chance that we can chase off a better hand by betting.

<u>Example:</u>
We raise from UTG 3xBB with AK, all fold to the blinds, which both call. Flop is QT4r. SB checks, BB makes it half pot-size. From the playing so far we think BB has hit middle pair. We raise.

The intention here is also clear - we have presented strength before the flop and use that to chase off BB, forcing him to fold the better hand. But this bet has of course also some informative character. Assuming we are all deep stacked, we raise 3xBB bet and he 3-bets. Here we get the information we have to fold, cause he will probably have at least top pair. Or BB calls our raise, here we also get an information that is vital for us when we continue the hand.

So still nothing different to the points gobboboy has made - he is advocating that you should not make a bet for information alone.

While I think that making a bet for only one purpose is some kind of academic thinking I will show you that there a clearly some bets where the information-gain is the first and main reason to bet.

The difference between a value bet and a bluff is the probability I give my hand to be best or not. So we all know to assign ranges for the possible hands of our opponents, than we (or pokerstove after the tournament) calculate if we are likely to be best and then we decide how to continue.

And here is the first problem, which we encounter everyday. Hand reading is not an exact science and there are lots of situations in everyday play, where we are simply not sure yet, where we stand.

<u>Example:</u>
First hour of a big tournament, blinds are 20/40, stack sizes at our table all around 3000. We don't know very much about our opponents, but the table has been somehow tight. We raise 8h9h from CO-1 and get called by button and BB. Flop is Ah9s7d, giving us middle pair and a backdoor straight and flush draw. BB checks. We bet 2/3 pot-size.

What kind of bet is this?
Let's make it step by step:

We have to assign ranges for button and BB. We know they are playing tight. They have both just called and not reraised, so we exclude the high PP, as well as AK and AQ (I know it might be wrong to exclude AQ here, but this is only a theoretical example). They both play tight, so we exclude all unsuited connectors without KQ, and all suited connectors lower than 89s. We are still very deep so we think they will call with TT-22 to mine for a set (while they reraise with JJ+). Further we ad unsuited Aces AJo and ATo, and the suited aces AJs-A8s. Finally we ad the high suited one gappers KJs, QTs and KTs.

So here is their range: TT-22,AJs-A2s,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,AJo-ATo,KQo - to simple it up we give both villains the same range.

So again the same question - what kind of bet is this?

All the math geniuses have calculated it already - by definition it's a value bet:
Board: Ah 9s 7d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.356% 36.87% 01.49% 3511866 141529.00 { 9h8h }
Hand 1: 30.822% 29.26% 01.56% 2786808 148916.50 { TT-22, AJs-A8s, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo-ATo, KQo }
Hand 2: 30.822% 29.26% 01.56% 2786808 148916.50 { TT-22, AJs-A8s, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo-ATo, KQo }


But as we have said - hand reading and range assignment is no exact science - if we add for example all suited aces to their range (cause they all love to mine for the nut-flush in the early stages) and some unsuited aces down to A7o it looks like this:
Board: Ah 9s 7d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.838% 28.71% 01.12% 4608984 180464.00 { 9h8h }
Hand 1: 35.081% 33.38% 01.70% 5358818 272322.00 { TT-22, AJs-A2s, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo-A7o, KQo }
Hand 2: 35.081% 33.38% 01.70% 5358818 272322.00 { TT-22, AJs-A2s, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo-A7o, KQo }

Our bet gets a bluff immediately.

So I agree that in an academic way we can divide all bets in value-bets and bluffs, but in real poker there are many twilight zones, where we can't say exactly where we stand, there should be room for bets, made mainly for information.

This is more true in cash games, where we find more often situations, where a bet can be made to protect you from a big loss on a later street, but also in tournaments to come to an easier decision and let a hand go or don't invest any more money on it. Of course it is a possibility to simply let all these uncertain situations go, but then we might miss some chances to make money.

Lev

[Crash0veride]

excellent post. Cross post? I'd really like to see what Gobbo, Ansky, and some other respected posters have to say.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
excellent post. Cross post? I'd really like to see what Gobbo, Ansky, and some other respected posters have to say.

[/ QUOTE ]

They also have access to this forum.

[Crash0veride]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
excellent post. Cross post? I'd really like to see what Gobbo, Ansky, and some other respected posters have to say.

[/ QUOTE ]

They also have access to this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is also true, yet I never really see to many of their posts here anymore

[sapsuckah]

Great post Lev, and thanks for all the thought and work that went into this.

I agree that there are shades of meaning to any bet, but I see gobbo's point that -- at their core -- all bets are either value bets or bluffs. As I read down your list, I found myself putting all of them into one bucket ot the other.

But the other day I was thinking about this subject while driving to my weekly live game. So just after I concluded that I agreed with gobbo about the value/bluff thing, I end up playing my tourney and getting HU vs a terrible player.

She was an easy read -- she'd minraise any bet with top pair or better, she'd call with any kind of draw, and she'd fold if she missed the flop. So it wasn't long before I was making bets entirely for information. Regardless of my cards, I'd bet every flop and I'd know exactly how to play the hand based on her response to my bet.

So I stand corrected, I guess. While I believe that gobbo's right for the most part, there are exceptions. And if there are exceptions, then maybe Lev is onto something...

Cliff's notes: I have no idea.

Matt

[SengioKang]

i agree bets are everything... it can win a hand w/ lowly holdings like "the hammer" (72) ... or get you into trouble with flopped sets (and troubling kickers). anyone who's read supersystem and how to play AA by limping then reraising someone who comes over the top preflop is at a loss in tourneys i feel (as supersystem is primarily cash game strategy) just like on the A88 flop... is there any chance that someone can have TT, believe it's good, chase and turn a 2 outer??? that's poker... also, some people could think that their "value bets" are really value bets and not bluffs... or vice versa.... but that's all cuz poker is a game of imperfect information... but i digress...

anyways, the value of betting is tremendous, especially if you have a sense of logic to react to opponents actions. and i think not betting gets you no value on your good hands when you finally do decide to bet them. i was reading negreanu's blog the other day and basically it was "if you never make an obviously stupid play" i.e., that you play great and make no mistakes... "it will hurt you in the long run" and brunson pretty much said the same thing... to get action you have to give action and that is what betting does. and it is a basic business principle... to make money you have to spend money.

[ChipSpeak]

Nice post Lev, well thought out and articulated.

[levAA]

[ QUOTE ]
Great post Lev, and thanks for all the thought and work that went into this.

I agree that there are shades of meaning to any bet, but I see gobbo's point that -- at their core -- all bets are either value bets or bluffs. As I read down your list, I found myself putting all of them into one bucket ot the other.

But the other day I was thinking about this subject while driving to my weekly live game. So just after I concluded that I agreed with gobbo about the value/bluff thing, I end up playing my tourney and getting HU vs a terrible player.

She was an easy read -- she'd minraise any bet with top pair or better, she'd call with any kind of draw, and she'd fold if she missed the flop. So it wasn't long before I was making bets entirely for information. Regardless of my cards, I'd bet every flop and I'd know exactly how to play the hand based on her response to my bet.

So I stand corrected, I guess. While I believe that gobbo's right for the most part, there are exceptions. And if there are exceptions, then maybe Lev is onto something...

Cliff's notes: I have no idea.

Matt

[/ QUOTE ]

Matt,

I don't think it that betting for information is an exception. If we were all able to read hands most precisely, there would be no need to make those bets - and by fact the better I get at this art, the less I need to make bets for information.

Maybe there will be a time when I don't need it anymore, cause I have enough notes or knowledge an my opponents and am perfect at reading. But right now come to situations, where I need some more clues where I stand, and therefore a bet is sometimes the right method to get them.

I also think checking and looking what your opponents do gives you information, but sometimes not the information you need - like in the last example - if the player behind me bets i can't decide for sure if he plays an ace, another nine or tries a steal.

Betting for information should have the purpose to win you more money on a later street, or to prevent you from loosing money on a later street - and therefore it can't be put in the value:bluff scheme very good.

Lev