Some extraordinary squeeze in level 3

[levAA]

Normally i don't like the squeeze in the early stages not very much - cause i think it doesn't work often enough to be +EV. But here a situation arises, where the button makes a mistake by not putting the short stack in the BB All-In.
So I think this is a nice "squeeze" situation.

Reads: button: TA - knows what he is doing
SB: started ultra-tight, but loosend up as his M went down

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

CO (t2750)
Button (t4510)
<font color="red"> Hero (t4870) </font>
BB (t690)
UTG (t2870)
UTG+1 (t1310)
MP1 (t1520)
MP2 (t1480)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Button raises to t300, <font color="red"> Hero calls t250 </font> , BB raises [t590 - All In] t100, Button calls t390, <font color="red"> Hero raises [t4620 - All In] </font>, Button folds.

[JavaNut]

Is this a squeeze play? I figured it to be a play where the player after your raise can't call because he has to worry about the player after him reraising and you could then rereraise.

But as the BB is already all-in a call is not going to be squeezed by a raise from BB, and as you are all-in yourself the button knows exactly what it is costing to play the hand.

How much does your EV in this hand improve by folding the button, compared to the risk of the button calling you with a hand that dominates you? The sidepot is empty, so you are HU with BB who are all-in. ATs is a good hand, but is it good enough for this risk? By calling you could get more from the button after the flop without risking almost everything when you know that when your all-in is called you are behind.

[levAA]

1.) this isn't a classic squeeze - therefore i put the quotes ("")

2.) as the button folds he already has put 690 in the pot - which lays there as dead money and this increases the EV dramatically

3.) ATs should be ways in front of BB range, who at this point could move in with nearly anything.

4.) What I like about this hand is the flat call first, as the BB could be expected to push and the Button to call this because of the pot odds. As he opend from the button with a standard raise I think I'm in front of his range too.

5.) I think specially the sidepot consideration makes the play here +EV. If I just call we have a situation where we have a main pot without a sidepot. In this situation I can't win anything (because of the large main pot). Any move postflop (with a large sidepot) forces the other one out - so basically it should be checked down even if you think you are in front, cause your risk-reward ratio is that bad.

[JavaNut]

Ad 2) Yes it is a nice big pot to win 3 * 690 but you don't take it down as with a normal squeeze play, you get one player out. One problem is that you are probably not dominating the BB with his range, so you might have improved from a 35% chance of winning the pot to a coin flip.

Ad 3) BB has a wide range, but he has not got first-in vigor, that narrows it down quite a bit eventhough he has no M to speak of.

Ad 4) Yes you exploit the error from the button who should have raised to the size of BBs stack. But you make yourself vulnerable to him correcting his error after BB goes all-in by calling his too small initial raise. A raise after BBs all-in to about 2,500 would give you a very tough decision. You are only risking t250, but your intention is to remove the button which removes your implied odds totally.

My objection to the play is that you risk 4,200 to be HU against the BB in a 2,100 pot when you know that if (and I agree that in many situations he will fold) the button calls. In that case you will be behind and often dominated.
I have no clear feeling how often the button will fold, if it is 25% of the time, 50% or even 75%. If he folds less than 50% of the time I would imagine that the play is -EV, because you loose so much more than you win.

Other players might have a much different opinion on this than me.

[JavaNut]

Did a little math on this under the assumption that

1) the button calls 60% of the time
2) you are 60-40 favorite vs BB if button does not call
3) button is 70-30 favorite when calling (did not bother to include BB in that calculation so I assume either you or button wins when button calls, consider the chance of BB winning counted into the 70-30)

2070 * .4 * .6 = 496,80
-690 * 0.4 * 0.4 = -110,40
-4510 * 0.6 * 0.7 = -1894,20
9710 * 0.6 * 0.3 = 1747,80

In all EV = 240.

Then your EV on a 4510 risk is 240. Personally I think that this is too much of a coin flip.

But again my numbers could be too pessimistic.

[levAA]

basically if the move is +EV its not a coinflip

in this situation i gave the button a smaller calling probability &lt;50%.

but to take your math +EV 240 is +EV 10% of your stack - this is huge.

i don't think you can pass those edges.

[NIX]

I like this play.

If stack sizes were bigger though, would you still try it? Since you didn't reraise initially, how often do you expect the Button to reraise the BB's push to knock you out?

[MJBuddy]

Last night I made this move semi-deep with a short stack in SB. 2 limpers in front of me with blinds 100/50, one behind me. SS jams 450. BB folds, open raiser calls, 1 fold, I jam KQ. Guy behind me folds, open raiser folds. Huge dead money KQ vs 9T.

[levAA]

[ QUOTE ]
If stack sizes were bigger though, would you still try it? Since you didn't reraise initially, how often do you expect the Button to reraise the BB's push to knock you out?

[/ QUOTE ]

as you see button gets pot odds of about 1:3 here - so i think he can call this only with premium hands.

i think i would try it until pot odds of about 1:2 or a little above.

i try this type of play only against a button, which i have seen doing standard raises from his position (as it appeared in this scenario). so i think i will get a re-raising push from the button in about 20-30%, while he is nearly forced to call with the gigantic pot odds.