Downswing discussion

[Apanage]

I do think handling downswings and knowing what downswings are possible is a very important thing to understand in Shorthanded limit
Therefore I make this post in this forum instead of in BBV.

I´m having my second 400BB downswing for the year.I´m still up 0.65 BB/100 though because I have huge upswings.

I found a post that Yoshi Yoshi made.If some of you were brave enough to post your biggest downswings and your winrate (bíg samples of course) it would be very helpful to me.
If you don´t want to share that information can you please look at Yoshi,yoshis graphs and tell me if these seems to correlate with your stats?


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Please do more simulations for more hands and bigger downswings. Thanks.

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OK I made some more disturbing graphs...

The first two are of the same type as before - one is the prob of 300BB from 1,000 to 100,000 hands again, the other is the prob of 500BB from 10,000 to 1 mil hands.



The next two graphs are a little bit different. They show the largest downswings you are likely to have over 100K and 500K hands respectively. For example, to read the first graph, first pick a random number between 0 and 100. If you are a 2BB/100 winner, and you pick 60 (meaning you are luckier than 60% of people), the graph says that your biggest downswing over the next 100K hands will be 325BB.



These graphs don't really show the outliers well. If you want to see the extreme cases, you can check out the raw data from the excel file, from which I made all the graphs. In particular, out of 10,000 1BB/100 winners playing 500K hands, 13 of them had a 1500BB downswing in their career.

Finally, note that all these graphs were made with an 18BB/100 STDEV. However, having a smaller or larger STDEV makes a pretty big difference. I didn't realize that before, so instead of remaking the graphs, here is a graph of a 1BB/100 winner comparing 3 different STDEVs.



Here is all the code: java code

All this graph-making was interesting, but also scares the crap outta me.

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[Robin Foolz]

my big downswings came when i was propping, had prolly no better than breakeven winrate, and in very tough games. of course, i was going to have huge downswings. so basically i can't provide you with any meaningful data.

however, this post which got very little attention may help you.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post4401541