Cost-benefit analysis of going pro, please help (VERY LONG)

[Gildwulf]

Dear El D forum,

This is my first OP in your forum and I wanted to come to the Wisemen of 2p2 for help on a major life decision.

I am strongly considering become a professional poker player in the next few months. Here’s why:

Some facts:

I am 22 years old and I have been playing poker since 2005. Last year I made a little over $100,000 US playing poker 15-20 hours a week. I primarily play 10/20-30/60 limit headsup, as well as 1/2-3/6 NL 6-max and a smattering of Sunday tournaments. For those who read BBV, I also play a mean heads-up grudge match. My current online bankroll is around $25,000 US pretaxes, but I have access to about $90,000 US in liquid investments and savings accounts. Most of this money are my investments and I have been saving it for a down payment on a house or my MBA, but I can begrudgingly take it out and count it as bankroll or a rainy day fund for living expenses.

I currently work as a public opinion research consultant at a small firm making $50,000 CDN per year right out of college with 100% medical and dental benefits and 15 paid vacation days. I have been working since September 2006 at this job.

After taxes, my salary comes to about $3,000 CDN a month, $800 of which I have been saving and the rest ($2200 CDN/month) goes to rent and other expenses (nice dinners, shopping, vacations, etc).

I live with my girlfriend in downtown Toronto, who works full-time as well at a non-profit firm. We live very comfortably and happily in a rented, 750 square foot apartment in downtown Toronto.

Why Do I Want to Go Pro?

In the last few months, I have a harder and harder time getting out of bed in the morning to go to work. Simply put, I feel I am reaching the limits of what I can learn at my current job and I will be ready to move on to something else in the next year.

My job on paper is an incredible experience and I am doing all kinds of things that kids right out of college shouldn’t be doing; client relations, advanced statistical analysis, I am responsible for my own projects and every once and a while my results make a difference in public policy. For example, a marketing campaign I planned is going to directly affect the upcoming Ontario election. As a political science major in college, this is what initially drew me to the job and the intellectual challenge can be there sometimes.

Why not just apply for another job? Part of the reason I am ready to move on is I am just unsatisfied with office life in general, not just my job. While my job looks great on paper, I sit at a desk doing data analysis from 9am until 6 or 630pm (sometimes later and weekends if there is a client deadline). I feel chained to my desk and often do not enjoy the repetitive tasks I am given by my boss. Sometimes they are interesting and exciting; other times they are not. I also work on short deadlines for clients that can be very demanding. This is stressful and I often don’t see the fruits of my labour, as it is client proprietary. Most of my day, from social interaction with coworkers to actual work I feel like I am going through the motions, like my heart isn’t in it.

The lifestyle of a poker pro appeals to me (like it would anyone). Being your own boss, setting your own hours; I don’t have to explain the strengths as everyone in this forum has probably considered it at some point in their lives.

In particular, quality of life is important to me. I imagine what my perfect day would be like, and it looks something like this:

Wake up around 1030, 11am. Work out. Play poker for a few hours. Meet my girlfriend for lunch. See a friend for coffee, read a book and play poker during the afternoon. Have a nice dinner with my girlfriend, play poker for another few hours and go out with friends for drinks. Maybe even take a cooking class or start a band.

Right now my schedule is something like: get up at 8am, work till 7 or 730pm. I take a 45 minute break for lunch but the rest of the day I am at my desk. I get home at 8 and try and work out. By the time I have dinner with my girlfriend it’s 10’o’clock. Then I try and squeeze as much poker as I can in before I go to bed and wake up exhausted the next morning. Luckily I haven’t had to work weekends lately, so I have time to catch up with friends and spend quality time then. But basically my life is work, girlfriend, poker, see friends once or twice a week, sleep right now. I don’t have time for music and barely have time to work out.

My nightmare is to wake up when I’m 35 and be stuck in an office job earning just enough to pay for my kids and mortgage with no way out, coming home exhausted and not having no energy or time to spend with my kids. I want outs for a comfortable, fulfilling lifestyle and I think I have one in poker. Or at least poker can provide me with the short-term capital to leapfrog into a life of security and fulfillment.


Why Should I Not Go Pro? (With counterarguments)

1) Lack of social activity (at job)/Isolation

Poker is, by nature, a socially isolating activity. In particular, online poker involves sitting in a room all day by yourself.

Counter-argument: although I work in bull-pen in current job, work is naturally isolating; data analysis, creating powerpoint presentation, writing reports, sitting in front of a computer all day. There is water cooler talk but it is not enough social interaction to really consider seriously.

Poker also involves sitting in front of a computer, but not all day. I don’t mind (in fact, I really enjoy) using a computer but I don’t want to be chained to my desk from 9am-7pm when it is a gorgeous day outside. Poker would allow me to play a few hours in the morning, work out, go have lunch with my girlfriend, play a few more hours in the afternoon, go for a walk and read outside, nap, etc. Forty hours a week (which is a lot for a poker pro) can be spread out much farther which is not the case at a job where you are stuck in front of a computer Monday-Friday (and sometimes weekends).

Other jobs may indeed provide more social interaction. My girlfriend’s job is in a young office and she almost feels like she’s hanging out with friends when she works. It’s entirely possible I just haven’t found the right job yet and I should just quit my job and find another one. The job I have though is a great job on paper and there are times I find it interesting and engaging. It is more the idea of being stuck in an office from 9am-7pm in front of a computer with limited interaction for the rest of my life that is driving me insane.

2) Poker is monotonous

Poker is monotonous, no doubt about it. Fold, fold, fold, raise, bet, fold, fold, etc. This is a serious concern that I need to address before I make any decision.

Nevertheless, I have made a point to diversify in poker and acquire multiple skillsets. I am an expert level limit holdem headsup player, but I also have excellent results at no limit six-max and limit six-max holdem and some decent results in tournament play.

I have also researched live games in Toronto and there is a 2/5nl or 5/5nl game running almost every night of the week, and a 1/2nl every night in 10 different places, as well as some medium-buy in ($40-60) tournaments every day and bigger tourneys ($150-$300) twice a week.

If I get bored of playing headsup, I can play six-max. If I get bored of six-max I can play tourneys. If I get bored of online play I can play live for a few weeks.

If I get bored of holdem, I can always try and learn Omaha or another game in an effort to be a more well-rounded poker player.

And if I get bored of playing, I can always watch videos on stoxpoker or cardrunners to analyze my play or talk hands with people on IM and count it as working.

Learning about poker excites me. Just in the past few months I have taken the game much more seriously and my play has improved by leaps and bounds. With enough dedication and study, I think I have the skillset to beat high-stakes limit games in a year and high-stakes NL games in two or three years. Right now my earn in cash games is somewhere between $50-$300/hour (limit HU variance is insane so I can only really ballpark it) and that works for me.

3) No contribution to society

I can’t really fight this one. Poker players are leeches on society. They take money from other people who earn it in “real jobs” or from other gamblers. There are definitely jobs that contribute more to society than poker.

However, when did it become a requirement for a job to contribute to society? Do Wall Street traders or tax lawyers or management consultants or VPs of Pepsi-Cola contribute to society? Yes, they contribute to the GDP and global markets and provide people with valued products. Do they make the world a better place? Probably not much more than that of a poker player who volunteers a few hours a week at a homeless shelter.

4) Highly variable income

This is brutal and something I am considering very carefully. No matter what you say about a desk job, having a paycheck every two weeks and not having to worry about rent is pretty sweet. Variance is cruel in poker and can be extremely stressful, particularly in the games I play (mid-high headsup limit holdem).

I have no counterargument to this. All I can say is that I have strong mental fortitude and the drive and ambition to succeed at whatever I do and hopefully this will overcome the stress of a variable income.

5) Lack of benefits/job growth

The lack of benefits is not a serious concern. My current job provides 100% medical, 100% dental, no RRSP/401k match and 15 paid-vacation days a year.

Ontario health coverage provides a basic plan and additional medical benefits would be a few thousand extra dollars a year.

Job growth is a serious concern. There will come a time, possibly a year or five years from now where I reach a ceiling in poker of how much I can improve. I might be making 150k out the door this year if I go pro (I would be surprised if I made less than 150k playing forty hours a week), but 5 years from now there is no way I can match friends in the financial or consulting environment or what I would earn with an MBA. Twenty years down the road I would be at a significant disadvantage if I did not diversify my income.

The obvious solution to this is to develop a business plan or exit strategy from poker in three to five years. Save up enough money to either start my own company, invest in a business (jazz club, franchise, etc) or investments or real estate. The goal of my business plan would be to turn active income (poker) into less active income (ownership of a business or rental units) into extremely passive income (investments, real estate paid off, jazz club running itself, etc.). I have yet to come up with this plan but it is in the works.

6) Closing doors/Resume gap

Going pro may close doors and put an unhealthy gap on my resume. At this point, though, I’m 22 years old with 100k in the bank with no mortgage, no kids and no set career path yet. If there’s a time to go pro, this is it. And if it doesn’t work out, I can say I traveled for a year if anyone asks.

7) Social stigma (parents, family, friends)

This is a minor concern and one I’m not really worried about. My Dad will most likely disapprove but I’ve landed on my feet before and I am financially set for the next couple of years. Even if he cuts me out of the will I’m still doing OK.

My siblings and mom will be supportive no matter what.

Most of my friends will probably think it’s cool. If they don’t or disapprove, who cares.

Most importantly, my girlfriend is on board and will support me in whatever decision I make. This is huge because we are in a long-term (2 ½ year) relationship, living together and we are at a point where we are making decisions for life together. She has even said she is willing to move to Vegas with me if that is where it takes us, although I think she has an alterior motive (Vegas is closer to Vancouver than Toronto, her home town).

8) Change in long-term poker market/Toughness of games/End of poker boom

This is the most powerful argument for not going pro; basically, the market is [censored] and there’s probably only another 3-5 solid years of poker out there online before all hell breaks loose.

First off, I’m Canadian with Canadian bank accounts. I still have access to Party Poker and other sites that have been banned from the US market. And if the US totally closes shop I will still be able to play.

I am currently improving as a poker player much faster than the market is improving, so I am pretty confident I will be able to beat the games in a few years if I continue to practice and study.

In five years I hope to be diversified enough that poker is only a small part of my investment portfolio. If I can book a few hundred thousands dollars a year for five years and invest it carefully in a business or index funds, and not blow it on something stupid, I will be set for a very long time.

9) Health and Fitness/Lifestyle

Sitting on my ass all day in front of a screen or at a card table drinking beer and eating fast food is not a healthy lifestyle.

Neither is sitting in front of your ass in front of a computer all day at work, though. And with the increase in free time from poker I will have more time to go for walks during the day, workout, and live a more active lifestyle. I just have to make sure I do this because it is very easy to fall into a sedentary lifestyle as a poker player.

10) Wasting my gifts/intellect

I am by most measures society has provided for us at genius or near-genius level of intelligence. I graduated high school with a 1530 SAT when I was 16 (I skipped 1st grade and started early) and started (and didn’t finish) an MA at UChicago when I was 20. I graduated from McGill University in an Honors program with a 3.94 GPA in my last two years. I scored a 99% percentile on my verbal GREs (750/750/6). I’m not trying to brag. I am just stating facts that suggest that there are a lot of doors open for me because of my natural abilities.

I also have excellent people skills, a good work ethic, a great sense of humour, and comparable research skills and experience (research assistant for three years, graduate-level methods training, a year of work doing quantitative data analysis in public affairs research) to a PhD-level political science candidate. In other words, I could very easily succeed in business or academia or in another socially accepted career.

There’s a strong case here that I would be “wasting” gifts that God gave me.

Conclusions

I don’t want to look back and my life and see missed opportunities. There’s an opening here. It’s risky, but I can take it. I think I have the discipline, intelligence and ethic to succeed at poker.

My initial plan is to stick it out at work for a few months, think it over some more, not burn any bridges, get advice from everyone I can, save up some more money and improve as much as I can as a poker player. By August I should have it figured out whether or not I will stay in this job for another year. I’ll sit my boss down and talk with him about my future with the company, and if I don’t see any real change in the work I am given or my attitude towards my job I will leave for greener pastures, most likely poker.

Thoughts?

[DING-DONG YO]

Awesome post Gildy.

Focus on 4, 5, 6 and 8. ESPECIALLY 8. You're a young guy and this is not the time to hitch your stars to the poker wagon.

[gumpzilla]

tl, sorta read, but this

[ QUOTE ]
While my job looks great on paper, I sit at a desk doing data analysis from 9am until 6 or 630pm (sometimes later and weekends if there is a client deadline). I feel chained to my desk and often do not enjoy the repetitive tasks . . . . Sometimes they are interesting and exciting; other times they are not. . . .This is stressful and I often don’t see the fruits of my labour

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds to me pretty much exactly like how a lot of the professionals here describe online poker after a few months. So I doubt that you'd be escaping from this particular aspect of things. I think it's just a harsh reality that no matter what you do, there are likely to be long stretches of boring ass grunt work that you've gotta put in.

Also

[ QUOTE ]
In other words, I could very easily succeed in business or academia or in another socially accepted career.

[/ QUOTE ]

probably depends on how you define success. I can't speak to business, but I'll say that easy success in academia isn't really something that happens. It sounds like you haven't been exposed to enough smart people to have a sense for just how many there are, and where you stand. Not that this is particularly relevant to anything, just felt like mentioning it.

Posts like this almost always sound like the person already has their mind made up. This one is no exception - I can't see you doing anything other than playing poker, for the short term. Well, good luck with that.

[Gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
tl, sorta read, but this

[ QUOTE ]
While my job looks great on paper, I sit at a desk doing data analysis from 9am until 6 or 630pm (sometimes later and weekends if there is a client deadline). I feel chained to my desk and often do not enjoy the repetitive tasks . . . . Sometimes they are interesting and exciting; other times they are not. . . .This is stressful and I often don’t see the fruits of my labour

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds to me pretty much exactly like how a lot of the professionals here describe online poker after a few months. So I doubt that you'd be escaping from this particular aspect of things. I think it's just a harsh reality that no matter what you do, there are likely to be long stretches of boring ass grunt work that you've gotta put in.

Also

[ QUOTE ]
In other words, I could very easily succeed in business or academia or in another socially accepted career.

[/ QUOTE ]

probably depends on how you define success. I can't speak to business, but I'll say that easy success in academia isn't really something that happens. It sounds like you haven't been exposed to enough smart people to have a sense for just how many there are, and where you stand. Not that this is particularly relevant to anything, just felt like mentioning it.

Posts like this almost always sound like the person already has their mind made up. This one is no exception - I can't see you doing anything other than playing poker, for the short term. Well, good luck with that.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make a good point about the repetition. I guess it would be a tradeoff of one type of repetition for another in exchange for more freedom/money/better overall quality of life.

I most certainly have not made up my mind yet. I just made a case for it and counterarguments and wanted to hear ELDF's thoughts. I'm going to take my sweet time making this decision over the next few months as it will impact my life in a big way.

As for the 'you think you're smarter than you are/haven't been around smart people', I have been surrounded by smart people my whole life. My Dad is the smartest guy I know (MD), my Mom has an MA from Columbia, my oldest brother has a PhD from McGill, my second oldest brother has a PhD from Harvard in biochemistry and my sister is getting her PhD from Harvard right now in public health.

McGill also has very smart people (highest entrance average in Canada) and when I was at UChicago (briefly) I had a lot of interaction with future professors/movers and shakers in the field.

The intelligence thing is pretty off-topic though and the only reason I mentioned it was to address one of the arguments I think people who know me would bring up (I have a lot of doors open, don't close them for poker)

[IWEARGOGGLES]

Zack,

Being a professional poker player is INCREDIBLY boring unless you travel the circuit.

My suggestion is to simply find another job.

And BTW, you won't put in the hours you want to. I can almost guarantee it.

God I need to get my ass back to school.

[The Yugoslavian]

Sounds like you already have made up your mind but just want to get all of your thoughts out in clear writing (always a v good idea IME). Plus, you are a huge part of the 2p2 community so you can also share your plans with everyone this way. But I doubt anyone will change your mind (nor should they be able to).

Also, you did such a thorough analysis, I can't really think of too much you may have missed, lol, [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

One thing you may want to consider further is how you will make sure you have the motivation to play 30-40 hours of expert poker a week. You will have a ton more free time without a job but you also won't have any necessary structure to your day. I could see it being very desirable after a month or two to just go do other easier, more fun activities all the time and never quite get around to playing as much poker as you originally planned.

Gl [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

Yugoslav

[jws43yale]

First thing that came to mind when reading this is you talking about makin $150k if you played 40 hrs a week. Sounds like you are a solid player, but I will tell you from experience it is nearly impossible to sustain those hours. I had a month where I tried it and it becomes miserable after awhile.

Onto your other points. I know the idea of online poker sounds amazing with the freedom it brings. But I think that the resume gap could be a big problem down the line. Hopefully poker will be legalized in the US and then you ability to make more money will increase, but who knows how likely the scenario is. With your grades it sounds like you should be able to get into a great business school. I know moving etc. would be tough with the girlfriend and all, but I think getting an MBA and playing poker might be your best bet. After four years of playing poker, you may not be able to get into the same type of school etc. I think you may be better off trying to get an MBA and playing while in school. You definitely will not be as busy as you would with your current job, and you would not be limiting your opportunities for the future. You could hopefully put away anotheer $100k on top of paying for school by playing and then have yourself set-up to get a great job or do something on your own. I doubt the poker situation will be worse in two years, so you can always go back to that after getting an MBA if you ultimately decide that is what you want to do.

I just don't recommend putting all your eggs in the poker basket for now and banking on your ability to live off that income or start your own business through it in the future. Unfortunately poker is no longer like it was two years ago, with people banking $300k-$500k a year. So unless you have a great plan for how you will diversify from poker in 4-5 years and support yourself, I would take the route of more education.

[unfoldable]

This is probably the first time i see someone asking "to go pro" who really understands what it means beforehand.
The rule of thumb is: When you have to ask if you should go pro the answer is NO. Maybe this time its a bit different.
For me, Nr. 2 killed the fun: playing LHE got just booooring really soon with no change in sight (i doubt that playing different forms of poker adds that much). Combine the monotony with not using my potential, running bad and my interest for so many other things and i simply couldnt do it. On the other hand i was older than you, prolly a worse player and made less money with cards.

[king_of_drafts]

I think you would do very well. Keep in mind that as you move up to higher and higher stakes the swings are going to be more and more brutal if you are playing shorthanded, particularly limit, but I think this may actually benefit you since you seem to have extremely good composure and judgment when facing heat (if BBV is a good representation).

The most important point imo is the fact that poker will likely have dried up a LOT compared to the games today pretty soon. I think 3-5 years is a good estimate. Right now we are living in a paradise. I used to feel like this "job" is miserable and painful, and that people with a steady paycheck have it good, but that's probably because I've never had a job and am pretty much spoiled. The people that will crush in 3-5 yrs like Aba crushes super tough NL games for millions are going to be the ones that work their asses off now, but if you love the game and to learn in general, it doesn't feel like work.

Whatever, I don't even have any real salient points to make other than I think you are in the perfect situation to go pro and that you are well-suited to it as an occupation

[gumpzilla]

Another thought: if you're making $100k in 15 hours a week, that seems like a pretty healthy chunk of money. Certainly enough for you to quit your current job, not to become a professional poker player, but perhaps to follow some other weird ambition that you may have that's not particularly lucrative. I understand you're a fairly serious singer; perhaps you could take a few months to a year to figure out if being a semi-professional musician is something that interests you. I toyed briefly with the notion of trying to do something in comedy when I graduated college; I think if I had an income stream like that on the side I would have thought about it a LOT harder.

EDIT: Basically, if you define success as doing something cool/interesting/that makes you happy instead of making a brazillion dollars, it might lead to a different outlook.