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#41
05-10-2007, 11:47 AM
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Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
like they said, your postflop game must be awful. just play straight up and bet when you have the goods. ppl at 25NL don't fold.
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#43
05-10-2007, 12:09 PM
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Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
[ QUOTE ]
All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be. [/ QUOTE ] Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial. Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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#44
05-10-2007, 12:28 PM
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Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be. [/ QUOTE ] Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial. Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Maybe he likes 25NL. Anyway, suppose he played 1 million hands of 25NL, just for kicks. The is a virtual certainty of several 9k downswings. Or, maybe he has not moved up because his last 9,000 hands have been a downswing, which could as I said be entirely because of adverse variance - bad luck. You 2% number is absurd.
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#45
05-10-2007, 12:44 PM
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Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be. [/ QUOTE ] Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial. Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Maybe he likes 25NL. Anyway, suppose he played 1 million hands of 25NL, just for kicks. The is a virtual certainty of several 9k downswings. Or, maybe he has not moved up because his last 9,000 hands have been a downswing, which could as I said be entirely because of adverse variance - bad luck. You 2% number is absurd. [/ QUOTE ] Do you know anything about statistics? Here there are 18K hands, not a million. A standard deviation of $1.50 per hand is pretty average on 25NL. In 18K hands, the SD is (square root of 18K) * $1.50 = $200. OP has lost over 2 times the SD. That means that the chance that his actual winrate is >0, is less than 2.5%. Edit: Cliffnotes: IMTHEWORST LOSES.
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#46
05-10-2007, 12:51 PM
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Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
[/ QUOTE ] Do you know anything about statistics? Here there are 18K hands, not a million. A standard deviation of $1.50 per hand is pretty average on 25NL. In 18K hands, the SD is (square root of 18K) * $1.50 = $200. OP has lost over 2 times the SD. That means that the chance that his actual winrate is >0, is less than 2.5%. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#47
05-10-2007, 12:53 PM
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Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
[ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] cliffnotes included to clarify.
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#48
05-10-2007, 01:05 PM
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Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be. [/ QUOTE ] Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial. Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Maybe he likes 25NL. Anyway, suppose he played 1 million hands of 25NL, just for kicks. The is a virtual certainty of several 9k downswings. Or, maybe he has not moved up because his last 9,000 hands have been a downswing, which could as I said be entirely because of adverse variance - bad luck. You 2% number is absurd. [/ QUOTE ] Do you know anything about statistics? Here there are 18K hands, not a million. A standard deviation of $1.50 per hand is pretty average on 25NL. In 18K hands, the SD is (square root of 18K) * $1.50 = $200. OP has lost over 2 times the SD. That means that the chance that his actual winrate is >0, is less than 2.5%. [/ QUOTE ] lol. 18k hands is NOTHING. You are basing your 'statistical model' on a vastly inadequate sample size. Repeat: OP could be a loser by chance alone. What are the chances of that? Who knows, the sample size is way too small to mean anything.
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#49
05-10-2007, 02:42 PM
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Re: i got crushed by 25NL (GRAPH!)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] All I see is a an approx. 9,000 hand downswing. There is a substantial chance this is just variance and OP is actually a long-term winning player. The again, it might not be. [/ QUOTE ] Statistically there's an about 2% chance this is a winning player (assuming $1.50/hand SD blah blah). That's not substantial. Also, what a waste of time to play 18k hands on micro stakes and end up losing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Maybe he likes 25NL. Anyway, suppose he played 1 million hands of 25NL, just for kicks. The is a virtual certainty of several 9k downswings. Or, maybe he has not moved up because his last 9,000 hands have been a downswing, which could as I said be entirely because of adverse variance - bad luck. You 2% number is absurd. [/ QUOTE ] Do you know anything about statistics? Here there are 18K hands, not a million. A standard deviation of $1.50 per hand is pretty average on 25NL. In 18K hands, the SD is (square root of 18K) * $1.50 = $200. OP has lost over 2 times the SD. That means that the chance that his actual winrate is >0, is less than 2.5%. [/ QUOTE ] lol. 18k hands is NOTHING. You are basing your 'statistical model' on a vastly inadequate sample size. Repeat: OP could be a loser by chance alone. What are the chances of that? Who knows, the sample size is way too small to mean anything. [/ QUOTE ] Yes it is a total mystery. the world will never know.
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