Losing streaks

A_F · #1 08-22-2007, 09:50 AM

Limit players talk about 200-300BB downswings as something quite normal.
What is the equivalent for a winning, say 10% ROI, STT player?
Any general thoughts? Just trying to get a picture of the short term luck factor of the game.

taipan168 · #2 08-22-2007, 09:51 AM

I have had two 11 OOTM streaks and a two 30 buyin downswings and I haven't really played all that much (1300 tourneys). My overall ROI is 13%.

A_F · #3 08-22-2007, 09:55 AM

Thanks Taipan. Anyone out there with a larger sample size?

sixfour · #4 08-22-2007, 10:02 AM

Sharkscope's great for this sort of thing. Just looking at FTP it tells me I've had two 11, a 12 and a 13 game out of the money stretch (1800+ games, 14% ROI, actually nearer to 10% at limits that matter)

GtrHtr · #5 08-22-2007, 10:02 AM

I had a 30 bi downswing at the Party 55s. That was sweet.

Austiger · #6 08-22-2007, 10:28 AM

I had a 24 strt out of the money streak. Was ridiculous.

Quetzo · #7 08-22-2007, 10:28 AM

Not sure how many games I played, but probably around 15k at different sites and buy-ins and I had 22 straight OOTM and dropped 108 buy-ins at games I'm pretty sure I had around 10 % ROI.

108 buy-in drop was over about 1150 games, giving me a ROI of -12 %. First 40 buy-ins was at games where my ROI probably only were 4-5 %, but then I moved down and played Party $55 and this was 15 months ago when the games were really soft and I'm pretty sure my true ROI was close to 10 % and I dropped 90 buy-ins, but mixing in some $22 made the total drop only 108 buy-ins.

22 straight OOTM was October last year, just before Party banned US, so soft games and buy-in only $22 so pretty sure I was above 10 % ROI.

But this is just what happened to me, in theory it can be worce.

Austiger · #8 08-22-2007, 10:32 AM

Quetzo- 108 buyin downswings should just not happen to a winning player. I find it hard to believe that you were playing 10% ROI poker and just getting unlucky to the tune of 108 buyins.

estoysinblanca · #9 08-22-2007, 10:38 AM

14 OOTM streak at party..Brought my ROI deeply down to 5%

StregaChess · #10 08-22-2007, 11:07 AM

Is it possible that an OTM run of 20+ games variance is only a (minor) contributor to the situation?

At the $6.50's my longest OTM streak is around 21, at the $16's it is 7. I've play about 20% more games at the $16's than the $6.50. When a losing streak starts in the $6.50's I've pushed onward possibly even adding tables. I've never really taken the time to get in tune with why "I'm running bad." With the $16's I've taken more time to reflect, taken small breaks, drop tables and got back on track quicker.

However I'm really a low volume/recreational player so user mileage may vary for the rest of you. My main point is that if you are in the middle of a bad run it most likely is adding a cloud or two to your though process. Possibly a small break, even to get a cup of coffee and chill for 15 to 20 minutes would shorten the length of these downswings.