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#1
08-09-2007, 01:29 PM
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Cards call up Ankiel
St. Louis cards call up outfielder Ankiel.
[ QUOTE ] Ankiel was hitting .267 with 32 homers and 89 runs batted in 102 games at Triple-A Memphis. He also struck out 90 times and had an on-base percentage of .314. Defensively, he had seven errors. [/ QUOTE ] Great story, but not one that is going to end well, methinks... 
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#2
08-09-2007, 01:30 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
It's about time, he's been tearing up the minors for two years now.
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#3
08-09-2007, 01:38 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
[ QUOTE ]
It's about time, he's been tearing up the minors for two years now. [/ QUOTE ] Don't you mean "creating mucho mucho outs"? That's good if he was still a pitcher, but not so good as a hitter. His OBP has been .295 in AA and .316 in AAA, what is it going to be in the Majors? Way below .300? Ankiel is 28 and in his prime so how much improvement does he have left?
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#4
08-09-2007, 01:44 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It's about time, he's been tearing up the minors for two years now. [/ QUOTE ] Don't you mean "creating mucho mucho outs"? That's good if he was still a pitcher, but not so good as a hitter. His OBP has been .295 in AA and .316 in AAA, what is it going to be in the Majors? Way below .300? Ankiel is 28 and in his prime so how much improvement does he have left? [/ QUOTE ] considering he only recently became a full-time hitter, I don't think you can use standard projections like that. also, his SLG this year was .570, that's pretty damn good. sure his OBP sucks, but a guy who a .270/.316/.570 guy has good value
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#5
08-09-2007, 01:45 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
Is he going to have a nervous breakdown the first time overthrows the cutoff man in a big game?
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#6
08-09-2007, 01:46 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
[ QUOTE ]
Is he going to have a nervous breakdown the first time overthrows the cutoff man in a big game? [/ QUOTE ] dunno, but I bet he has a gun!
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#7
08-09-2007, 02:38 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
[ QUOTE ]
sure his OBP sucks, but a guy who a .270/.316/.570 guy has good value [/ QUOTE ] But that's AAA numbers. What's the expected translation to the majors? If it's a 10% reduction he'd be .243/.285/.523. That provides what looks like a decent OPS (.808), except that OBP is probably worth 3x SLG. So his EQA is likely to be below league average. That's not good for a corner outfielder who struggles defensively. For comparison, Jack Cust is .263/.402/.521 this year in the Majors. Last year he was .293/.467/.549 in AAA. And if his hitting ever falls off he could never play the outfield for anyone. As soon as Piazza is moved Cust is a full time DH.
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#8
08-09-2007, 02:44 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
[ QUOTE ]
What's the expected translation to the majors? [/ QUOTE ] well, it's a difficult projection I think. he's been a full time OF for 2 years. so while you normally wouldn't be excited about a relatively 1 dimensional player making his MLB debut at 28, this is clearly an outlier case.
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#10
08-09-2007, 07:02 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] sure his OBP sucks, but a guy who a .270/.316/.570 guy has good value [/ QUOTE ] But that's AAA numbers. What's the expected translation to the majors? If it's a 10% reduction he'd be .243/.285/.523. That provides what looks like a decent OPS (.808), except that OBP is probably worth 3x SLG. So his EQA is likely to be below league average. That's not good for a corner outfielder who struggles defensively. For comparison, Jack Cust is .263/.402/.521 this year in the Majors. Last year he was .293/.467/.549 in AAA. And if his hitting ever falls off he could never play the outfield for anyone. As soon as Piazza is moved Cust is a full time DH. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not positive, but from what I have read about sabermetrics, this is way off.
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