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  #1  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:51 AM
highstakesfish highstakesfish is offline
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Default AA raised pot on QTs9

PartyPoker Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> HandRecorder

Stacks &amp; Stats
BB (23/18/2.32/27)
Hero ($624.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises to $24</font>, BU calls $24, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, BB calls $18.

Flop: ($75) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#FF0000">Hero bets $60</font>, BU folds, <font color="#FF0000">BB raises to $176</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero ????

call and push any blank? fold? push?

what if i call and the turn comes Qo
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  #2  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:52 AM
DMoogle DMoogle is offline
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Default Re: AA raised pot on QTs9

What's BB's stack size? Also BTN's stats are fairly important here too.
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  #3  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:54 AM
highstakesfish highstakesfish is offline
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Default Re: AA raised pot on QTs9

600 is his stack and BU is a 18/10 nit
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  #4  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:00 AM
jk3a jk3a is offline
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Default Re: AA raised pot on QTs9

If btn is bad, bb's overcalling range should be bigger. He might not necessarily 3ball 99 here and would be more likely to call hands like T9s.

I really can't see folding now. Either call and shove good turns or shove now. I prefer the former. Reads on both players here would REALLY help.
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  #5  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:01 AM
DMoogle DMoogle is offline
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Default Re: AA raised pot on QTs9

TBH, folding here really isn't that bad. Your equity is usually just awful against his range in this spot. Although I don't think I could let go just yet... it's pretty close between folding and calling with the intention of re-evaluating on the turn.

Pushing is very -EV though, don't do that.
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  #6  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:05 AM
highstakesfish highstakesfish is offline
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Default Re: AA raised pot on QTs9

i call turn Qo he bets big (commit himself) -&gt; me ??

what on blanks with this action?
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  #7  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:15 AM
jk3a jk3a is offline
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Default Re: AA raised pot on QTs9

Board: Qh 9h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.197% 30.64% 00.56% 7279 133.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 68.803% 68.24% 00.56% 16214 133.50 { TT-99, AhJh, AhTh, KJs, KhTh, QJs, J9s+, T9s }

Yeah shoving sucks. Even IF you have 20% FE, you still need ~36% avg. equity against his calling range to make a shove neutral EV. So don't do that.

Qo is kind of an interesting card because there really shouldn't be many queens in his range, but I still fold because you still only beat a small part of his range. I'm def. shoving the 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn though.
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  #8  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:15 AM
DMoogle DMoogle is offline
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Default Re: AA raised pot on QTs9

Tough spot at first glance.

Most people just give up with a ruined T9 here, so we can probably safely remove that from his range. Q9 (probably not in his preflop range, but possibly) and QT (suited definitely in his range, offsuit not as often) are probably going to bet smaller to induce action from draws drawing dead and weaker hands in general. Probably the same with 99 and TT, but not necessarily as often since they're more vulnerable.

Most players are going to correctly c/c instead of c/r this flop with QJ, KQ, and AQ, so he probably doesn't have a queen all that often at all.

KJ is definitely in his range (as well as J8 occasionally), but there are a ton of draws that he'd play this way, and the queen is a scare card (although, as I said, I don't think he has a queen very often at all), which makes it more likely for his to semi-bluff a draw.

So shove.
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