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  #1  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:15 AM
brad2002tj brad2002tj is offline
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Default Hand from WSOP Circuit Event

Event #1 in New Orleans $300+40

We are in the money with about 30 people left. Hero has luckboxed his way to 34,000 (about double average) chips and just moved to a new table, has no reads.

Blings are 500/1000 with 100 ante (I think).

All fold to hero in cutoff with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Hero raises to 4,000. Big blind, with a stack of 27,000 thinks for a moment and call.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, Hero?

Assume hero bets 6,000, and BB min re-raised to 12,000. Hero?
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  #2  
Old 11-28-2007, 02:17 AM
Kostas Kostas is offline
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Default Re: Hand from WSOP Circuit Event

I think three of the four hands you have to be most afraid of are unlikely because you would have most likely been reraised preflop (AA, KK, or AK). I think the most likely hands are K9 - KJ or any mid/low PP. The only 4 I think he could possibly have is A4.

So i think youre beat with a bigger AK about 10% of the time and A4 maybe 10% but youre way ahead 80% of the time.
He could be completly trying to bluff you off a continuation bet also.

I would probably shove here and force him to make the decision but that may be to spewy.

If you call what would the plan be on the river if he shoves? Checks?

I'm curios as to what actually happened in this hand and opinions from others.
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  #3  
Old 11-28-2007, 08:08 AM
EroTheMad EroTheMad is offline
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Default Re: Hand from WSOP Circuit Event

Without a read, top pairs but not TPTKs are hard to play. We can say bet-3bet all in he may show you AA or A4 or AK or something. We can say fold, he can shove you KT.

It's all about what you're expecting from tourney, go for the first? Move up the ladder? If you wanna go for the first, you should play this hand like you have the nuts with non A turn river.

Board: 4s 4d Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.630% 55.66% 00.97% 27554 478.00 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 43.370% 42.40% 00.97% 20990 478.00 { 88+, AKs, A4s, AKo, A4o }

I think 88+, AKs, A4s, AKo, A4o are likely minraising hands here? We're ahead of this range and if we put KJ,KT, to villains range we're way ahead. But it seemed to me that if he minraises the most likely hands are 88+ or AK. And we're still ahead of his range.

Board: 4s 4d Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.031% 63.88% 01.15% 26562 478.00 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 34.969% 33.82% 01.15% 14062 478.00 { 88+, AKs, AKo }



Edit : If i bet 6k here and he minraises to 12k i call and re-evaluate on river. I have position on him.If he has the guts to fire double barrel, then so be it, i fold there. Because i'm master of short stack. With my position i can cause his blind some serious damage on later rounds.


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  #4  
Old 11-28-2007, 08:54 AM
fuzz66 fuzz66 is offline
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Default Re: Hand from WSOP Circuit Event

PUSH!
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  #5  
Old 11-28-2007, 08:57 AM
EroTheMad EroTheMad is offline
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Default Re: Hand from WSOP Circuit Event

[ QUOTE ]
PUSH!

[/ QUOTE ]

Which hands are calling? Hands that beat us. Which hands are folding? Hands that we beat. So?

On second thought, with this kind of hand i don't want big pot, if i check here he'll bet like ~7k on turn maybe then we can call and there may be like ~14k bet on river. It looks like it's hard to keep the pot small in this situation. Do you want to use 25k of your stack on this hand? From villain's view we may try to steal and then cbet after his check. But he doesn't know us, we're new to the table, and we don't know if he's agressive donk or not. I didn't like this spot very much, though pokerstove says we're ahead of his range here. I lost couple of tourneys on CO,button,sb,bb realationship with KQ top pair, so i don't really like this spot.

My best play here is bet 6k, if 12k raise comes, call, if RRAI comes fold.
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  #6  
Old 11-28-2007, 11:43 AM
IcarusJam IcarusJam is offline
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Default Re: Hand from WSOP Circuit Event

You're stack is double avg with 34 BB's, i think this factors in greatly.

9,400 effectively in the pot on the flop if it's 9 handed, and my math isn't messed up.

30k vs 24k. I fire half, if he min raises re-eval turn.

Hard not to try and get it in here imo.

Why did you post he took a second to call? Tell, reverse tell?
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  #7  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:19 PM
brad2002tj brad2002tj is offline
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Default Re: Hand from WSOP Circuit Event

You guys are correct as usual. I was later criticized by a friend for not thinking enough about the hand. I insta pushed after his raise and he called showing 45s. At the time I was thinking it was cooler but I think I just lost my head a little. I tilt-pushed the next two hands with kqs and ended up doubling up twice, so all was well that ended well.
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