SIA NFL Props

[NajdorfDefense]

Probably nothing, mathematically.

However, many many more coaches are willing to go ftw, given the statistical measures that have crept into NFL 'proving' it's often a good move, also some coaches like Herm are dying to show they have guts/faith in their team.
Also, I think kickers are just way more accurate so it's rare to see 3-4 missed FGs in OT like you might 15 year ago. More domes as well, etc.

However, even with all this, you're probably right. It's probably solid value.

[GuyIncognito]

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I am now officially a donk as well. I would bet the ones in bold:

+1400 Any NFL Rusher over 250 yards. I know this has happened at least twice in the last 7 seasons (lewis and dillon, maybe more people).

+400 Any kicker 60 yards or higher made field goal

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really rough calc on the one we differed on, going only since 1990.

17 seasons * 256 games/season = 4352 games

3 ties

P(tie in a given season) = 1 - (4349/4352)^256 = 16.1%

makes true line about +521

+1700 is way off from that...what am i missing?

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JAX and CAR joined in 1995, CLE in 1999, HOU in 2002, so the total number of games since 1990 is fewer than 4352. That's 37 extra seasons' worth of games, so 37*16 - (number of times these teams have played each other since 1995) games too many in your figure of 4352.

The "true" rate of ties is of course highly subject to error. For example, if the "true" rate is actually 1 tie since 1990, then the bet becomes unprofitable.

Also, the 2-point conversion did not exist from 1990-1993. Not sure exactly what effect this would have. It makes it easier to win at the end of a game, but also makes it easier for 2 FG + TD to equal 2 TD.

[NajdorfDefense]

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Either I'm getting better at this stuff or NajD is getting worse because I immediately liked the same 2 as Naj.

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It's SIA so no worries.

We all spotted Sen. Kennedy to get relected at -600 was good value at Bodog, right?

[MicroBob]

more scoring in general too isn't there?
Seems to make it a bit less likely that an OT will remain scoreless all the way through.

I know it's a small sample-size and all but perhaps looking at the more recent years to get a truer guage on "today's game" (whatever the hell that is) would be wise.

1 tie in the last 9 yrs.
0 ties in the last 4 yrs.

Even if we can assume just 1 tie every 9 yrs it sure looks like getting paid 17 to 1 for such an occurance ain't too shabby.

[MicroBob]

Will any NFL team score 55 or more points in a single game?
+1000

don't know how to research this specifically but just looking back at the results of a few teams in recent years I was able to find:

2003 - IND 55 - NO 21
2004 - CIN 58 - CLE 48

Also, last yr alone SD had games of 48-20, 49-41, 48-19, 40-7.
In 2005 they had 48-10, 41-17, 45-23.
GB had 52-3 in 2005.


Any value here?
I'd like to know how to search for this stuff a bit better. But my initial instinct is that 55 points in a game is more than a once in 10 yrs occurance.

[Bishop22]

Max bet?

[NajdorfDefense]

Like 88 to 100, some weird limits. I think they are moving them around or sumpin.

[Mediocre_Player]

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Will any NFL team score 55 or more points in a single game?
+1000

don't know how to research this specifically but just looking back at the results of a few teams in recent years I was able to find:

2003 - IND 55 - NO 21
2004 - CIN 58 - CLE 48

Also, last yr alone SD had games of 48-20, 49-41, 48-19, 40-7.
In 2005 they had 48-10, 41-17, 45-23.
GB had 52-3 in 2005.


Any value here?
I'd like to know how to search for this stuff a bit better. But my initial instinct is that 55 points in a game is more than a once in 10 yrs occurance.

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Bump this for any pimps that bet it at +1000 (sadly I didn't)

[NajdorfDefense]

LOL_Siapropaments. 3 weeks to win 10-1.

[Mediocre_Player]

for all the guys here who crush SIA: any concern that these guys would ever go busto? Or am i way understimating the number of degens betting the wrong side?