400nl - Big decision with 2nd pair

Nick Royale · #1 07-31-2007, 01:32 PM

400nl, villain is 39/12/2 and has a 24% raise c-bet over a 500 hand sample. Villain has $375 and I cover.

Hero is in MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raise it up to $16, villain calls from SB.

Flop (pot: $34): J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero bets $22, villain raises to $62.29, Hero calls with the intention of pushing over any bet on a non diamond/A/Q turn.

Turn (pot: $156): Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain bets all-in, $299.

1) Call or fold?
2) What do you think of hero's plan when he calls the flop?

AAismyfriend · #2 07-31-2007, 01:47 PM

I don't really like it vs this guy, as his stats make him look loose/passive. Players like this are more likely to cold call with draws. How has he played draws in previous pots? If you've seen him do this with a draw than your line is fine, and you should call the turn, but without that read I'd just dump it on the flop.

Nick Royale · #3 07-31-2007, 01:53 PM

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I don't really like it vs this guy, as his stats make him look loose/passive. Players like this are more likely to cold call with draws. How has he played draws in previous pots? If you've seen him do this with a draw than your line is fine, and you should call the turn, but without that read I'd just dump it on the flop.

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I've not played many hands vs villain, but he's raising 24% of the c-bets, and that number is probably even higher hu. I can't see how a player raising as much on the flop would not raise a fd, his range is probably huge.

88jayhawks · #4 07-31-2007, 02:06 PM

im not sure how much i like just calling on the flop. what was your back up plan when the A or Q came off on the turn?

if villain is playing loose/passive, why not get it on the flop so you don't have to guess if your hand is good on the turn?

also, what are you beating now on the turn? chopping with K-J and beating J-10, J-9 is possible.

Nick Royale · #5 07-31-2007, 03:01 PM

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im not sure how much i like just calling on the flop. what was your back up plan when the A or Q came off on the turn?

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Well, I hadn't figured it out at the time, but I'd probably push over a bet on a Q but fold if he bets an ace. Lots of his fd-combos is AdXd so I don't think I can play for stacks. Calling a not too big bet with the intention of folding the river might be an option though.

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if villain is playing loose/passive, why not get it on the flop so you don't have to guess if your hand is good on the turn?

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If I thought villain was loose/passive I wouldn't plan to get it all-in because in that case I'm probably crushed by his range when he c/r the flop. To me it seems like he's aggressive postflop, both from judging his realatively high AF and his extremely high raise c-bet. When there's a big diff between vpip and pfr, 2 in AF is high. Raising 24% of the c-bets is extremely high and if it's accurate he must raise just about any piece of the flop when HU (assuming he's more passive multiway which seems likely).

My assumptions is that a player like this raises the flop with a fd 100%, TP very often and air/low pairs frequently. The reason I called the flop is because I'll think he'll bet the turn with a fd/TP and I hope a call on the flop will make him follow up with a lower pair/air a decent portion of the time. These are assumptions made from the his stats, not from watching him play.

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also, what are you beating now on the turn? chopping with K-J and beating J-10, J-9 is possible.

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When pushes the turn I'm hoping he has a fd, probably with at least 1 overcard to the board or a gut shot/oesd. It seems like he wouldn't overbet this huge with sets/QJ and lower two pairs seems unlikely given his preflop call. My main concern is QdXd.

BearHustler · #6 07-31-2007, 03:02 PM

1) fold
2) I think it's fine.

Isura · #7 07-31-2007, 03:04 PM

calls. And I'm generally calling on any turn here against this guy. Still I prefer 3-betting flop

Nick Royale · #8 07-31-2007, 03:04 PM

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1) fold

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You think he'll bet 2xpot with a set or QJ?

Nick Royale · #9 07-31-2007, 03:09 PM

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calls. And I'm generally calling on any turn here against this guy. Still I prefer 3-betting flop

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As I see it the problem with calling is if the turn is a diamond or A and he'll keep betting air/worse pairs and we'll have to fold the best hand. The problem with re-raising is that we don't let him keep bluffing air and he'll probably fold worse Qs/pairs meaning the only value we get from re-raising the flop is vs FDs.

BearHustler · #10 07-31-2007, 03:10 PM

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1) fold

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You think he'll bet 2xpot with a set or QJ?

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Or maybe KQ, Q7, even J5.

Yeah, he raises way too many Cbets, so I think your turn plan is good. Turn card and his bet sucks though.

I mean, if he 1) raises 1/4th of all your Cbets and 2) follows up with a push every time he's called, don't worry about this fold, you'll get his money anyway.