~~~ OFFICIAL YANKEES 2007 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS OR BUST THREAD ~~~

[shemp]

"what you don't seem to be understanding is that winning in the game in the 10th means not losing it in the 9th."

I specifically demonstrated how the difference between Proctor and Rivera's ability to extend the game is minimal. Maybe I understand it.

"somehow managers understand this concept when they bring out their closer for the top of the ninth in a tie game"

It's a fundamentally different situation.

[Karak567]

Shemp: Triumph et al are right. Listen to them.

[JaredL]

[ QUOTE ]
If you get through the 9th, a better situation has arisen. You have 3 outs and they have 3 outs, and there is some fraction of a run that you can expect to be ahead before they come to bat in the bottom of the 10th.


[/ QUOTE ]

But you will never pitch when it's 3 outs to 3 outs. You will pitch when either they have 3 outs to win or you have 3 to get 3 outs to win.

[ QUOTE ]

In the 9th, if they are 25% to score on Rivera and 33% to score on Proctor, bringing in Rivera will make a difference only ~8%, but you'll be in the afore described better situation for the 10th 67% if you go with Proctor in the 9th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say that you have a 50% chance to win if you come up in the top of the 10th. I thought it would be lower but just looked it up in The Book and it said .500. If you pitch Proctor you win (2/3)(1/2) or a 33.3% of the time. With Rivera you win (3/4)(1/2) or 37.5% of the time. So putting Rivera in is worth over 4% of a win. While I can't recall the numbers from stuff I've read on the closer, it's hard to imagine that in expectation he will be worth more than that tomorrow.

[onlinebeginner]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's go pitcher by pitcher :

Wang : Taken out in the 7th after 86 [censored] pitches. OH NO A LEFTY IS UP LETS TAKE OUT ONE OF THE BEST STARTERS IN THE LEAGUE SO WE CAN PITCH THIS REALLY OLD GUY FOR ONE AT BAT BRILLIANT!!

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought clemens was better than him? ONE OF THE BEST STARTERS

[GuyIncognito]

[ QUOTE ]

I specifically demonstrated how the difference between Proctor and Rivera's ability to extend the game is minimal. Maybe I understand it.


[/ QUOTE ]

The argument is that it's still greater than P(tight save situation arises) * (P(Rivera saves a tight game) - P(Proctor saves a tight game)).

[JaredL]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you get through the 9th, a better situation has arisen. You have 3 outs and they have 3 outs, and there is some fraction of a run that you can expect to be ahead before they come to bat in the bottom of the 10th.


[/ QUOTE ]

But you will never pitch when it's 3 outs to 3 outs. You will pitch when either they have 3 outs to win or you have 3 to get 3 outs to win.

[ QUOTE ]

In the 9th, if they are 25% to score on Rivera and 33% to score on Proctor, bringing in Rivera will make a difference only ~8%, but you'll be in the afore described better situation for the 10th 67% if you go with Proctor in the 9th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say that you have a 50% chance to win if you come up in the top of the 10th. I thought it would be lower but just looked it up in The Book and it said .500. If you pitch Proctor you win (2/3)(1/2) or a 33.3% of the time. With Rivera you win (3/4)(1/2) or 37.5% of the time. So putting Rivera in is worth over 4% of a win. While I can't recall the numbers from stuff I've read on the closer, it's hard to imagine that in expectation he will be worth more than that tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not considering who was up as I didn't watch the game so I don't know. That could heavily alter the win probability going into the tenth.

Also, the expected win value tomorrow needs to be more than the 4% figure using these assumptions because he will on average be available sooner if he throws today than if he were to throw tomorrow which cuts into the expected gain from having him available tomorrow.

[onlinebeginner]

btw i can't believe i jus read all this nonesense... be quite shemp... if you would like someone to explain to you why you are wrong, thats cool... but stop arguing when u have no idea what you are talking about...

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you get through the 9th, a better situation has arisen. You have 3 outs and they have 3 outs, and there is some fraction of a run that you can expect to be ahead before they come to bat in the bottom of the 10th.


[/ QUOTE ]

But you will never pitch when it's 3 outs to 3 outs. You will pitch when either they have 3 outs to win or you have 3 to get 3 outs to win.

[ QUOTE ]

In the 9th, if they are 25% to score on Rivera and 33% to score on Proctor, bringing in Rivera will make a difference only ~8%, but you'll be in the afore described better situation for the 10th 67% if you go with Proctor in the 9th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say that you have a 50% chance to win if you come up in the top of the 10th. I thought it would be lower but just looked it up in The Book and it said .500. If you pitch Proctor you win (2/3)(1/2) or a 33.3% of the time. With Rivera you win (3/4)(1/2) or 37.5% of the time. So putting Rivera in is worth over 4% of a win. While I can't recall the numbers from stuff I've read on the closer, it's hard to imagine that in expectation he will be worth more than that tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not considering who was up as I didn't watch the game so I don't know. That could heavily alter the win probability going into the tenth.

Also, the expected win value tomorrow needs to be more than the 4% figure using these assumptions because he will on average be available sooner if he throws today than if he were to throw tomorrow which cuts into the expected gain from having him available tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is this source that says when two teams enter the 9th (or 10th, 11, etc) they are both equally likely to win? Or is it based on the teams?

[JaredL]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you get through the 9th, a better situation has arisen. You have 3 outs and they have 3 outs, and there is some fraction of a run that you can expect to be ahead before they come to bat in the bottom of the 10th.


[/ QUOTE ]

But you will never pitch when it's 3 outs to 3 outs. You will pitch when either they have 3 outs to win or you have 3 to get 3 outs to win.

[ QUOTE ]

In the 9th, if they are 25% to score on Rivera and 33% to score on Proctor, bringing in Rivera will make a difference only ~8%, but you'll be in the afore described better situation for the 10th 67% if you go with Proctor in the 9th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say that you have a 50% chance to win if you come up in the top of the 10th. I thought it would be lower but just looked it up in The Book and it said .500. If you pitch Proctor you win (2/3)(1/2) or a 33.3% of the time. With Rivera you win (3/4)(1/2) or 37.5% of the time. So putting Rivera in is worth over 4% of a win. While I can't recall the numbers from stuff I've read on the closer, it's hard to imagine that in expectation he will be worth more than that tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not considering who was up as I didn't watch the game so I don't know. That could heavily alter the win probability going into the tenth.

Also, the expected win value tomorrow needs to be more than the 4% figure using these assumptions because he will on average be available sooner if he throws today than if he were to throw tomorrow which cuts into the expected gain from having him available tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is this source that says when two teams enter the 9th (or 10th, 11, etc) they are both equally likely to win? Or is it based on the teams?

[/ QUOTE ]

Page 41 of The Book, Playing the Percentages in Baseball. It's overall so it doesn't take team data into account much less things like who is up for each team.

I'm quite surprised as well and wouldn't mind someone checking to make sure I'm not an idiot reading the chart wrong even after quintuple checking.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm quite surprised as well and wouldn't mind someone checking to make sure I'm not an idiot reading the chart wrong even after quintuple checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm floored by that stat. And not that it approaches 4% of a win (obviously), but there is (I'm guessing) a much greater than 4% chance that a save situation will arise tomorrow.