All regulation is doomed to fail

[Cactus Jack]

Let's face a simple truth. We're talking about Prohibition, again. It cannot work. It never has and never will. The govt cannot legislate morality. They cannot stop the flow of drugs into the US. They can't stop drug addicts from using drugs. They couldn't stop rumrunners and gin mills. And they can't stop people from online gambling, whether it's sportsbetting, poker or bingo.

Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? Suddenly we're going to be taxed and regulated and everything will be as it was? Both of those sites have flourished since the UIGEA passed and Party and others turned tail and ran away.

If Party et al become regulated and the other sites aren't, but are more profitable for players, do you think the players won't go where they get a better deal? Example: Party has no rakeback. Full Tilt gives 30% rakeback. Where will people play?

As we remember, when sites started rakeback, there were many of us who stopped playing on Party, which didn't have rakeback for a long time. We made more money, even if there were many more fish at Party. There were enough fish at the sites that gave rakeback to more than offset the easier games. We played on Empire and the other sites which did, until Party gave rakeback and that ended the other sites. People will still make the determination of where they do better.

If there are regulations passed which will allow people to deposit legally, what makes anyone think they won't be able to use the same system, or another system, to deposit at the unregulated sites? Again, people will go where they get the biggest bang for their bucks, and does anyone think a regulated site will have more to offer than an unregulated? Will the regulated sites be allowed to advertise and the unregulated will not? No. Free speech. The unregulated sites will advertise the same.

Banks are insured by the FDIC. If some bank starts up that gives people 300% better interest-rate and a free toaster, how many people will say, "I'm not going there because they aren't a part of the FDIC"?

It's only a matter of time before this all goes away and it's back to business as usual. The WTO decision may hasten it, as the govt at some point is going to have to surrender, sooner or later. They can't stop people from doing what they want to do. Laws only work if people are willing to obey them.

Many of you aren't old enough to remember when the speed limit laws were lowered to 55 maximum. NOBODY drove 55. They bought crude radar detectors and it started a CB craze. 10-4, good buddy. Eventually, the govt gave up trying to enforce a law that no one obeyed. The same thing is going to happen here. It's just a matter of time.

What's even more likely to happen, eventually, is the end of all government as we know it. The Internet is what has allowed the global economy to work. It won't matter anymore where your bank is located, when you can move money around at the click of a mouse. It won't matter where something is made, or shipped or whether the company has a brick and mortar location, as the money comes out of your account in Switzerland for a product manufactured in Sri Lanka and shipped out of a warehouse in Papua by a company owned in Tai Pei. We won't care. It will be delivered to our door. It's already happening.

Online gambling is really the vanguard of changes going on in all areas of the economy. The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along. Eventually, it is going to break down all borders and traditional national identities. This is the first of many attempts at stopping the inevitable tide.

Don't worry so much. It's all going to work out in its own time. Spend time working on your game for the next boom. lol

Carry on. As you were.

CJ

[antneye]

Funny meeting you here.

I am studying real hard and doing better than ever.

Thanks for the moral boost.

[JPFisher55]

I hope that you are right Cactus Jack.

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line?

[/ QUOTE ]

i've thought about this a lot. obv. the answer is no, so wtf, that's y i don't really follow the legislation anymore. nothing is going to change.

[Grasshopp3r]

Let me also add, there will be other currency systems which will further erode the governments' ability to tax and spend. We all trust the value of the dollar in low inflationary times, but if inflation reignites, there will be even more incentive to move into alternative currencies.

[OMFGWTF]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line?

[/ QUOTE ]

If anything, if 'coming into line' means these poker sites can freely advertise on US mainstream media, it might be reason enough.

At the moment, poker sites have to jump through hoops (loopholes really) in order to advertise in the US. That's why you see all these .NET advertisements from Full Tilt. (as opposed to .COM) None of the ads actually talk about money, playing for real money, bonuses, etc.

If a gambling company, can put an ad during the Superbowl with a clear message saying: "Register with us and we'll give you a $600 bonus", well, that could be huge.

[whangarei]

[ QUOTE ]
If a gambling company, can put an ad during the Superbowl with a clear message saying: "Register with us and we'll give you a $600 bonus", well, that could be huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

That thought makes me strangely aroused ...

[MiltonFriedman]

"Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? "

Based upon personal conversations with poker site owners, ANY site which could get a US license would do so.

....

"The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along."

Cactus, you really misunderstand politics and the public's social order.

Sadly, "People" are willing to "go along" with almost any regulation because they are willing to buy into fear of free markets.

I agree that Internet commerce is defintiely a cross-border phenomenon of common interests. However, you dismis too readily other social bonds and forces in your belief that commerce is all-powerful.

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
"Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? "

Based upon personal conversations with poker site owners, ANY site which could get a US license would do so.

....

"The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along."

Cactus, you really misunderstand politics and the public's social order.

Sadly, "People" are willing to "go along" with almost any regulation because they are willing to buy into fear of free markets.

I agree that Internet commerce is defintiely a cross-border phenomenon of common interests. However, you dismis too readily other social bonds and forces in your belief that commerce is all-powerful.

[/ QUOTE ]

While they may say they'll get a US license, what they actually do will be seen at a later date.

I agree with you, Milton, on the herd mentality and the fear of change, but I believe more in inevitable social evolution. Change happens whether we want it to or not. Just a couple of years ago, Internet shopping was considered a novelty. This year, it could make or break some companies who are prepared or not prepared for the Christmas shopping season.

It wasn't long ago that people had a very strong fear of computers. Now, they sell them like refrigerators. Those of us with computer knowledge are well aware they are still computers which don't work like a microwave or VCR.

The govt has never lead anything. The govt has always been behind every curve of change. The only way they can lead is by finding a parade and trying to get in front of it. Al Gore's claim of inventing the Internet is a great example. The parade was going strong by the time he got in front of it, too late, I might add, because by the time he said it everyone knew it was a joke.

I think there will be more sites, more options, more of everything by '09. Whether there will be another boom is a different question. People's attention spans are pretty short, and another pretty girl will walk by in a few seconds. I'm not worried at all whether I'll be able to play legally or not. I didn't drive 55, and I've been known to fire up a bowl on occasion. Like everyone else, it's up to me to decide which laws I'll support and am prepared to deal with the consequences of violating the law. Funny thing is, the lawmakers know it, while the general population doesn't. It's why the laws actually work.

[Legislurker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"Do you honestly think that if the Frank bill passes tomorrow, Full Tilt and Pokerstars will come into line? "

Based upon personal conversations with poker site owners, ANY site which could get a US license would do so.

....

"The government is helpless against the changes. They can't regulate if people aren't willing to go along."

Cactus, you really misunderstand politics and the public's social order.

Sadly, "People" are willing to "go along" with almost any regulation because they are willing to buy into fear of free markets.

I agree that Internet commerce is defintiely a cross-border phenomenon of common interests. However, you dismis too readily other social bonds and forces in your belief that commerce is all-powerful.

[/ QUOTE ]

While they may say they'll get a US license, what they actually do will be seen at a later date.

I agree with you, Milton, on the herd mentality and the fear of change, but I believe more in inevitable social evolution. Change happens whether we want it to or not. Just a couple of years ago, Internet shopping was considered a novelty. This year, it could make or break some companies who are prepared or not prepared for the Christmas shopping season.

It wasn't long ago that people had a very strong fear of computers. Now, they sell them like refrigerators. Those of us with computer knowledge are well aware they are still computers which don't work like a microwave or VCR.

The govt has never lead anything. The govt has always been behind every curve of change. The only way they can lead is by finding a parade and trying to get in front of it. Al Gore's claim of inventing the Internet is a great example. The parade was going strong by the time he got in front of it, too late, I might add, because by the time he said it everyone knew it was a joke.

I think there will be more sites, more options, more of everything by '09. Whether there will be another boom is a different question. People's attention spans are pretty short, and another pretty girl will walk by in a few seconds. I'm not worried at all whether I'll be able to play legally or not. I didn't drive 55, and I've been known to fire up a bowl on occasion. Like everyone else, it's up to me to decide which laws I'll support and am prepared to deal with the consequences of violating the law. Funny thing is, the lawmakers know it, while the general population doesn't. It's why the laws actually work.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you that poker will go on. As long as net neutrality is in place and no lawmaker gets some crusade on over the internet. A boom again or no, all depends on an easy way to fund. The affiliate system is in place, tv advertizing is even more ramped up, and word of mouth is as strong as ever. I think a forgeign bank is going to have to win a case vs the DoJ or something. Make it easy to set up foreign accounts for people, and introduce them to tax avoidance 101.