How bad can a player run in sit & goes ? - Page 5

Lori · #41 11-25-2007, 12:10 AM

Filter out pots under 6000 and see if that's where the majority of your losses are. If you lost 100k chips on 70 hands of 6000, that's probably just 'normal' bad luck.

SongheJe · #42 11-25-2007, 12:10 AM

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It's also possible you lost several huge pots, which would bring you back into the realms of the realistic by lowering the sample size.

You should probably try the same thing for pots over 6000 chips or something.

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I can set the upper size and it's 13.500. I consider all 9-handed sit & goes possible allins. So average pot is about 1600 chips in this sample.
However, the correct thing would be to evaluate the ICM and not the chips, and it's my intention to implement it.
For now I have the data just on chips.

Lori · #43 11-25-2007, 12:13 AM

What I mean is that your sample could be:

270 small pots: break even
70 large pots: lose lots

in that example, you haven't really had 340 hands of bad luck, just 70.
Averaging it doesn't work because it inflates the sample size and makes you look like you've had a sustained bad run (assuming the guess that you've run bad in big pots is corret), rather than just a 'standard' bad run.

Edit: ICM would still carry the same problem that some hands will be more important than others.