$11 NLTRN - Simple Medium Pair

[zacd]

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
SB: t1575
Hero: t1425

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">SB raises to t90</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t270</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in t1575</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero calls all-in t1155</font>.
Uncalled bets: t150 returned to SB.

I get into this situation all the time and I never know what the correct action is. Half the time I fold, half the time I call. Is the right way to figure this out to analyze their hand range and see what pokerstove says?

So for example I would expect this villain to be on 77+, AJs+, AQo+ (although I doubt he would shove so quickly w/ AA/KK so maybe more like 77-QQ).

According to PokerStove I'm a 45/55 dog to his range, so I should fold right?

[jay_shark]

You already have money invested in the pot and so if pokerstove says that you're a 45:55 dog , then you need to win at least 45% of the time to show a profit . You're getting pot odds of (1425+270):1155 ~ 1.467:1 which means you just need to win 1/(1+1.467)= 40% of the time to show a profit .

You MUST call !!

[xSCWx]

I call here and end up racing pretty much every time. It kind of sucks because coin flips don't beat the rake, but I guess the donks that show up with 44 make up for it.

[vodoo]

what about calling here?

Its just me, i dont like to put so many chips in with only 99.

[xSCWx]

[ QUOTE ]
what about calling here?

Its just me, i dont like to put so many chips in with only 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been doing this lately to avoid these situations. If it was rake-free I'd shove this all day.

[jay_shark]

Let me elaborate even further . You want to be able to at least cover your rake expenses when considering a call .

It would actually be incorrect to call if you would win exactly 41% of the time , since you need TRUE pot odds of
(1425+270):1155*1.025 ~ 1695:1183.875 ~1.431:1 which means you need to win at least 1/(2.431) = 41.13%

[jay_shark]

I've also showed in the past that calling with a 53% edge on the first hand is akin to folding the hand and winning the sng as a 60 % winner 15 minutes later . This means that even if you're a great player , you should almost always take an edge that is being offered to you . If you can marginally cover the rake , it is almost always correct to take it .

[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]
I call here and end up racing pretty much every time. It kind of sucks because coin flips don't beat the rake, but I guess the donks that show up with 44 make up for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually you do cover the rake , just not directly .

Even as a 45/55 dog , you would wish you had not been in this situation ; however , indirectly , calling actually assures you of covering the rake expenses needed to make the call .

[xSCWx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call here and end up racing pretty much every time. It kind of sucks because coin flips don't beat the rake, but I guess the donks that show up with 44 make up for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually you do cover the rake , just not directly .

Even as a 45/55 dog , you will wish you had not been in this situation ; however , indirectly , calling actually assures you of covering the rake expenses needed to make the call .

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I never realized the gap was that significant. I always thought AK vs 99 was like 48/52.

[zacd]

[ QUOTE ]

Wow, I never realized the gap was that significant. I always thought AK vs 99 was like 48/52.

[/ QUOTE ]

45/55 is w/ the range I gave above which included a few overpairs. AK vs 99 is closer.