Dr. Bob's writeups for 10/18-10/21

[kdog]

Blatently copied and pasted from The Rx as usual.

4 Star Selection
****OHIO ST. (-17.5) 37 Michigan St. 9
12:30 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Ohio State is the new #1 team in the land and it won’t be tough for coach Tressel to keep them motivated each week given the rash of upsets in the top 5 this season. The Buckeyes are very unlikely to get upset at home and they’re likely to win big given their 17-5-1 ATS record in conference home games as a favorite under Tressel – including 12-1 ATS when they have a good defense (enter game allowing 15 or less points per game for the season). Ohio State also applies to a very strong 47-10 ATS subset of a 118-60-4 ATS momentum situation and my math model is strongly in favor of the Buckeyes covering this game too. Michigan State has a good offense (6.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) but the Spartans have been worse than average in two games against better than average defensive teams – gaining just 4.5 yppl against Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, who would combine to allow 4.7 yppl to an average team. Ohio State is the best defensive team in the nation, allowing only 3.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit, and the Buckeyes have held good offensive teams Washington, Minnesota, and Purdue to a combined 4.1 yppl and 9.3 points per game. Ohio State’s offense started the season slowly running a conservative game plan, but quarterback Todd Boeckman has found his comfort zone and the Buckeyes are now better than average offensively. Scoring points shouldn’t be a problem against a Michigan State defense that is worse than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average team). Michigan State did well early in the season containing bad offensive teams, but they’ve allowed 6.6 yppl and 37 points per game in 3 conference games against Wisconsin, Northwestern and Indiana – who would combine to average only 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Ohio State’s defense and great special teams will supply them with very good field position all day long and I expect the Buckeyes to score more than enough points to cove the number in this game. Ohio State has only allowed more than 7 points once all season (they gave up 14 points at Washington), so they may need to only score 28 points or so to cover, which should be no problem. My math model favors the Buckeyes by 27 ½ points and the situation is favorable, so I’ll take Ohio State in a 4-Star Best Bet at -18 points or less, for 3-Stars from - 18 ½ to -20 points and for 2-Stars at -20 ½ to -21 points.
3 Star Selection
***Memphis 36 RICE (-2.0) 27
12:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Rice has beaten me two weeks in a row despite playing as poorly as I thought they would. The Owls beat Southern Miss two weeks ago when injured Southern Miss backup Stephen Reaves was forced into the game and couldn’t throw the ball effectively. Southern Miss still out-gained Rice 5.2 yards per play to 4.0 yppl and nearly won despite Reaves’ injury leading to 7 turnovers. The Owls had luck on their side again last week as Houston fumbled two kickoff returns in the first half and turned the ball over at the 5 yard line, leading to 3 short TD drives for Rice. The Cougars also blew a 1st and goal at the 1 yard line opportunity at the end of the half when they fumbled at the 1 yard line. Rice’s pathetic defense gave up 8 Houston TD drives of 65 yards or more, as the Cougars scored nearly every time that they didn’t turn the ball over. Rice, meanwhile, had just 3 TD drives of more than 17 yards and were out-gained by 307 total yards – which would normally result in a losing margin of about 31 points if it weren’t for turnovers (Rice lost by only 8 points). Turnovers, especially fumbles, are mostly random and Rice is not likely to continue to be so fortunate as they’ve been the last two weeks. Fortunately for us, those turnovers have led to solid line value against the Owls this week. Memphis is certainly not a good team, but the Tigers are much better than Rice. Memphis has been 0.6 yppl worse than average on offense this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and they’re a little better with starting quarterback Martin Hankins back at the helm after missing the last two games. Rice’s defense, meanwhile, has surrendered a horrendous 7.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so the Memphis attack has a significant 1.0 yppl advantage. The Tigers have defensive problems too, as they rate at 0.7 yppl worse than average on the stop side of the ball (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl), but Rice is 0.8 yppl worse than average on offense (4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), so the Tigers’ defense is actually a little better than Rice’s offense. Both teams are horrible in special teams and projected turnovers are even (even though Memphis is +8 in turnover margin while Rice is +3). Overall my math model favors Memphis by 4 ½ points in this game and the Tigers apply to a very good 86-28-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Rice applies to a negative 19-51-1 ATS scheduling angle. I’ll take Rice in a 3-Star Best Bet at pick or as an underdog and for 2-Stars from -1 to -2 ½ points.
3 Star Selection
***ILLINOIS 31 Michigan (-2.5) 23
05:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Illinois lost at Iowa last week, but I’ll come right back with them today against a Michigan team that is still overrated. Michigan has bounced back from losses to Appalachian State and Oregon to climb back into the top 25 and to sit atop the Big 10 standings. However, Michigan hasn’t suddenly become a great team just because they’ve won 5 straight games, just as Illinois hasn’t suddenly become a mediocre team because of last week’s loss. That loss actually sets up the Illini in a positive 53-22 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs after losing as a road favorite of 3 points or more the previous week and Ron Zook has always had his teams prepared to play their best against good teams. Going back to his days at Florida Zook’s teams are 12-4-1 ATS as an underdog in conference play against a team with a win percentage of greater than .667, including 5-0 ATS since last season. Michigan, meanwhile, is just 5-15 ATS as a road favorite the week after winning and covering the spread under coach Carr so they’re not likely to play well again this week after beating up on an overrated Purdue team last week. The Illini are also the better team even if I dismiss Michigan’s horrible defensive performance in their first two games. Michigan is only 0.2 yards per play better than average defensively for the season (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), but the Wolverines have been 0.6 yppl better than average since Big 10 play began 4 weeks ago and that’s the level I’ll use for them. Michigan’s pass defense has really tightened up, but they are still just mediocre in recent games defending the run and they won’t be able to stop Illinois from running the ball against them this week. The Illini have averaged 6.1 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) and RB Rashard Mendenhall (839 yards at 6.5 ypr) and mobile quarterbacks Juice Williams and Edde McGee will have good success in this game (Michigan has had trouble with mobile quarterbacks this season). Overall, the Illini attack is 0.5 yppl better than average, which is about the same as Michigan’s recent defensive rating. Michigan’s offense is vastly overrated, as the Wolverines have averaged only 5.4 yppl this season to teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. The Wolverines are better when both quarterback Chad Henne and star receiver Mario Manningham are both in the game, but I they still rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average in that scenario. Illinois is 0.5 yppl better than average defensively and they are especially good defending the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), so Michigan’s mediocre rushing attack (4.9 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp) isn’t likely to be effective in this game. Not only is Illinois better from the line of scrimmage than Michigan (even after discarding Michigan’s first few defensive games) but the Illini are also significantly better on special teams and my math model favors Illinois by 8 ½ points. Illinois beat Penn State on this field a few weeks ago and they should beat Michigan too. I’ll take Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog of +1 or more and I’d make Illinois a 2-Star Best Bet at pick or -1 point.
2 Star Selection
**TROY STATE (-19.5) 49 North Texas 21
12:30 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Troy is the class of the Sun Belt Conference and they should beat the Mean Green easily if they are properly focused. Troy is just average offensively (5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but that’s very good for a Sun Belt team and the Trojans should score at will against a horrendous North Texas defense that’s allowed 7.3 yppl to teams that would average only 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. Troy’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse than average, but that is also good my SBC standards and the Trojans are actually very good defending the pass (5.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defense), which is what counts against a North Texas attack that averages 52 pass plays per game. The Eagles are 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and they’re even worse since freshman Giovanni Vizza was given the starting quarterback job. The Mean Green have averaged 30 points in two games with Vizza at quarterback, but they’ve averaged only 5.4 yppl against two teams (ULL and ULM) that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl and 39 points to an average division 1A team. North Texas also has horrendous special teams and Troy should dominate this game if they are focused. My only problem with taking Troy is that they are 0-6 ATS against conference opponents after a bye week, but that trend is not as significant as the negative 43-100-2 ATS road letdown situation that applies to North Texas, who is off an upset win. I’ll take Troy in a 2-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**FRESNO ST. (-12.5) 38 San Jose St. 17
02:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
San Jose State is coming off a heart-breaking overtime loss to Hawaii and teams that narrowly miss pulling off a big upset usually struggle the next week. In fact, the Spartans apply to a negative 62-142-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. San Jose State also applies to a negative 28-73-1 ATS situation and a 61-139-1 ATS situation that are all independent of one another. This is a letdown game for the Spartans and Fresno State is capable of taking advantage. The Bulldogs have been hurt by defensive injuries, so a defense that has been 0.1 yards per play better than average for the season is now a bit worse than average. San Jose State quarterback Adam Tafralis has heated up thanks to a schedule loaded with bad defensive teams lately (after facing good pass defenses early on), but a good pass attack is balanced out by a dreadful rushing game that has averaged a national worst 2.9 yards per rushing play. Overall, the Spartans have been 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively this season and they averaged just 4.9 yppl last week against a Hawaii team that would allow 5.6 yppl on the road to an average team. San Jose State’s defense is average from the line of scrimmage but they’re better than average thanks to their ball-hawking secondary that has picked off 15 passes in 7 games. Fresno State quarterback Tom Brandstater has only thrown 3 interceptions all season, so he’s not likely to toss more than 1 in this game and Fresno’s better than average attack (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) should move the ball at a decent clip while the Bulldogs’ great special teams sets that unit up with good field position. My math model favors Fresno State by 13 ½ points, so the line is more than fair, and the situation is strongly against San Jose State. I’ll take Fresno State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 3-Stars at -11 or less.
Strong Opinion
INDIANA 24 Penn St. (-7.5) 26
09:00 AM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Indiana has been beaten by the only two good teams that they have faced this season, losing 14-27 at home to Illinois (although they were only out-gained 4.6 yppl to 4.9 yppl) and 27-52 last week at Michigan State. That loss sets up the Hoosiers in a very good 99-43-2 ATS blowout bounce-back situation and they are capable of competing with Penn State in this game. My math model favors Penn State by 7 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll consider Indiana a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more based on the good situation.
Strong Opinion
SOUTH CAROLINA (-13.5) 32 Vanderbilt 13
09:30 AM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Vanderbilt is coming off a competitive 17-20 loss to Georgia, but that game sets the Commodores up in a negative 62-142-1 ATS situation. Vanderbilt will have decent success running the football against a South Carolina defensive front that is just mediocre defending the run, but both Chris Nickson and Mackenzie Adams have been below average passing the football this year and the Gamecocks have one of the nation’s best pass defenses (4.0 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average team). While Vanderbilt struggles to score point without the ability to throw successfully the Gamecocks’ mediocre attack should score enough points to cover the number against a mediocre Vandy stop unit (5.1 yards per play against teams that would average 5.2 yppl to an average team). My math model favors South Carolina by 17 ½ points and the general situation favors the Gamecocks too, but Vandy is 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or more the last 4 seasons and that’s enough to keep me off this game as a Best Bet unless the line drops. I’ll consider South Carolina a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less and I’d take the Gamecocks in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Buffalo 27 SYRACUSE (-3.5) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Buffalo continues to be an underrated team, as the Bulls are decent on offense (5.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and decent on defense (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) this season after years of being horrible. They are certainly better than a Syracuse squad that is 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl). Syracuse is 1-6 straight up and the Orange have covered the spread only once all season (their upset win as a 38 point dog over Louisville) and I’ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
EAST CAROLINA (-5.0) 32 No Carolina St. 21
01:30 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
NC State is a bad team that got worse when quarterback Harrison Beck was lost for the season a few weeks ago. Beck was bad, but backup Daniel Evans is worse and the Wolfpack are now 0.9 yards per play worse than average offensively for the season (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). East Carolina has had some defensive injuries that have hurt them on that side of the ball, but the Pirates are only 0.4 yppl worse than average and have an advantage over NC State’s attack. The Pirates have an edge when they have the ball too, as Robert Kass, who has started the last two games at quarterback, is an upgrade over former starter Pinkney. Kass has averaged 6.8 yards per pass play on 75 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average QB) and the Pirates’ offense is 0.2 yppl better than average with Kass behind center. NC State, meanwhile, is just average defensively for the season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense). East Carolina is better from the line of scrimmage, they have a 2.8 points advantage in projected turnovers (Evans is interceptions prone) and they’re at home. My math model favors ECU by 11 points and the Pirates are a perfect 9-0 ATS under coach Skip Holtz when facing a team with a losing record, including last year’s upset win at NC State. I’ll consider East Carolina a Strong Opinion at -6 or less.
Strong Opinion
COLORADO 30 Kansas (-4.0) 29
02:30 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Kansas is unbeaten and probably better than most people think, but the Jayhawks are in a negative situation today and Colorado is better than they are perceived to be. It’s common knowledge that the Buffaloes have a solid defense (5.1 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl to an average team) but Colorado has gone from bad to very good offensively since star running back Hugh Charles became healthy enough to become the featured back in week 4. Charles has averaged 132 yards per game at 6.3 ypr in 4 games as the main ball-carrier (he carried just 4 times in the first 3 games and Colorado’s other backs struggled) and the Buffaloes’ pass attack has been much better with the threat of a running attack keeping them honest. Overall, Colorado has averaged 6.0 yppl in 4 games with Charles at running back (against teams that would allow just 5.0 yppl to an average team). Kansas is 1.0 yppl better than average defensively, but the Buffaloes are at that same level on offense with Charles in the lineup. Kansas does have an advantage when they’re on offense, as they rate at 0.7 yppl better than average on the attack side of the ball while Colorado is 0.4 yppl better than average on defense, but these teams are pretty closely matched from the line of scrimmage. The Jayhawks have an edge in special teams and in projected turnovers (Colorado’s Cody Hawkins has thrown 12 interceptions in 7 games) and my math model favors Kansas by 5 points. The line is about where it should be and I’m siding with the Buffs on the basis of the situation. Kansas applies to a negative 21-62-1 ATS unbeaten road favorite situation while Colorado applies to a 99-43-2 ATS blowout bounce-back situation this week. I’ll consider Colorado a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more and I’d take Colorado in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Kansas St. 34 OKLAHOMA ST. (-3.0) 32
04:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Oklahoma State is a good team, but the Cowboys have a weakness and Kansas State is likely to take advantage of that weakness – unlike Nebraska last week. Oklahoma State has an outstanding offense that is 1.5 yards per play better than average with Zac Robinson behind center (after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses) and the Cowboys are very good at defending the run (3.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp against an average team), but their pass defense is horrible. The Cowboys have allowed 7.3 yards per pass play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppp against an average defensive team and I still can’t figure out why Nebraska coach Bill Callahan continually tried to run the ball against that stout run defense last week (48 running plays) instead of using their good pass attack to take advantage of Oklahoma State’s defensive weakness (the Huskers threw just 20 times and most of that was when it was too late). Callahan is obviously an idiot but Kansas State coach Ron Prince will not be so stupid. Prince likes to throw the football (the Wildcats average 42.5 pass plays per game) and they should do so very well in this game. Kansas State also has a stingy defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and the nation’s best special teams and my math model favors Kansas State by 5 points. Oklahoma State does apply to a 188-100-6 ATS situation, but the best part of that situation does not apply and there is still enough overall value on the Wildcats. I will consider Kansas State as a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
ARIZONA (-11.5) 38 Stanford 20
04:00 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Stanford has covered the spread in two consecutive games, a huge upset over USC and a 36- 38 home loss to TCU as a 6 point dog. However, the Cardinal are not really any better than they were earlier in the season and new quarterback Tavita Pritchard is not the savior. Pritchard has started both of those games but the 60 points Stanford has scored the last two weeks is a mirage. Pritchard has completed only 41% of his passes and has averaged only 4.2 yards per pass play in his two starts – against teams that would allow 4.7 yppp to an average quarterback – and his compensated numbers are worse than former starter T.C. Ostrander. Stanford was out-gained 3.5 yppl to 5.9 yppl by USC and 4.6 yppl to 6.7 yppl by TCU, so the scores have not been indicative of how poorly the Cardinal are still playing. For the season Stanford has been average offensively (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team) but they’ve been 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense, allowing 6.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Arizona’s pass heavy offense is 0.3 yppl better than average and Wildcats’ quarterback Willie Tuitama will feast on a Stanford defense that can’t defend the pass (7.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.2 yppp). Arizona’s offense has struggled on the road, but they’ve thrived at home with an average of 6.8 yppl and 40 points per game against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl on the road to an average team. Arizona’s offense should score plenty of points and the Wildcats’ stingy stop unit (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) will contain the mediocre Cardinal attack. I’ll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 or less (strong opinion from -11 1/2 to -13).
Strong Opinion
Oregon (-11.5) 41 WASHINGTON 24
04:30 PM Pacific, 20-Oct-07
Oregon should certainly be in the conversation when talking about the best team in the nation, as the Ducks’ tight loss to Cal was the product of a -4 in turnover margin (they out-gained Cal 6.1 yards per play to 5.4 yppl). Oregon has one of the nation’s most potent attacks, averaging 6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Ducks are solid on defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team). Oregon’s offense took a couple of hits last week with the losses of running back Jeremiah Johnson and WR Cameron Colvin, both for the rest of the season. Johnson’s 344 rushing yards at 6.4 ypr will be missed, but he Ducks still have Jonathan Stewart, who has 689 yards at 7.0 ypr. Colvin’s injury could be more damaging, as he is the second starting receiver to go down for the season (Brian Paysinger was lost in game 3). Top receiver Jaison Williams is still healthy, but the corps is getting a bit thin. Oregon may not need any receivers with Stewart running against a Washington defense that has allowed 5.6 yards per rushing play this season. The Huskies are better on offense than their 5.0 yppl would indicate, as they’ve faced the toughest schedule of defensive units in the nation (their opponents would allow just 4.5 yppl to an average team), but Oregon’s defense has a slight advantage in that match-up and my math model favors the Ducks by 9 ½ points after factoring in the losses of Johnson and Colvin. The reason for siding with Oregon is a very strong 112-45-1 ATS momentum situation that favors the Ducks. I’ll consider Oregon a Strong Opinion at -12 points or less and I’d make Oregon a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.



And his NFL


3 Star Selection
***Tampa Bay 28 DETROIT (-2.5) 17
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
Detroit may be 3-2, but the Lions are being out-scored by an average of 7.6 points per game and out-gained by an average of 5.4 yards per play to 5.6 yppl. The Lions have only faced one team that currently has a winning record and they lost that game to the 3-2 Redskins by a count of 3-34. Tampa Bay is 4-2 and they’ve out-scored their opponents by 3.5 points per game while out-gaining them 5.8 yppl to 4.7 yppl. After compensating for strength of opponent and only using offensive plays in which the starting quarterback was in the game, the Buccaneers rate at 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.6 yppl better than average on defense while the Lions are 0.4 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense. Not only is Tampa Bay a bit better offensively and much, much better defensively, but they are also better on special teams and are much less likely to turn the ball over – Tampa’s Garcia has not thrown an interception this year and has a career interception rate of 2.3% while Detroit’s Kitna has thrown 6 picks this year and has a career rate of 3.7%. My math model favors the Bucs by 11 points and I’ll take Tampa Bay in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 4-Stars at +3 points or more (-115 odds or better).

3 Star Selection
***MIAMI 19 New England (-16.5) 26
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
More than a few clients were quick to tell me that I shouldn’t be betting against a “special” team like the Patriots after I suffered my only loss of the week with Dallas +5 ½ points. The fact that everyone now thinks that New England is even more special will make it tough for the oddsmakers to get anyone to bet against the Pats. They certainly tried to create some action on Miami in this game by opening the line at New England -13 ½ and -14 points but the line quickly moved to Patriots by 16 ½ points. More interesting is that almost 75% of the bets pouring in at a line of 16 ½ points are on New England. The fact that masses don’t want to bet against the Patriots makes them an overrated team because the oddsmakers are forced to make the line higher than it should be in hopes of splitting the action. That is certainly the case here as my math model favors the Patriots by 14 ½ points, which is pretty close to where the game opened. Some people looking for an excuse to bet on New England used the trade of Dolphins’ WR Chris Chambers to San Diego as the trigger, but Miami may actually be better without Chambers considering that their quarterbacks have combined to average 6.7 yards per pass attempt this year while they’ve averaged only 6.3 ypa on the 66 balls they’ve thrown to Chambers, which is much lower than the 7.7 ypa that an average starting wide receiver averages. The other 3 Dolphins’ wide receivers combine to average 6.9 ypa, so losing Chambers does not make Miami a worse team. Having Cleo Lemon at quarterback does make the Dolphins worse, but I factored that in and only project Miami to average 4.2 yards per pass play in this game (yet I still show value on Miami). The reason for this play is not all about the line value, but rather the strong situations favoring Miami. If everyone thinks that New England is going to crush winless Miami don’t you think the Patriots feel that way too? It’s very hard for good teams to get up for games against really bad teams, especially after playing such an emotionally charged game the previous week. Teams with winning records are just 62-103-3 ATS as road favorites of 5 points or more against a team with a win percentage of less than .250 that is on a losing streak of 2 games or more, and New England applies to a 9-48-1 ATS subset of that situation. Road favorites of 10 points or more are only 17-39-2 ATS if they have a winning percentage greater than .750 and are coming off a win (surely you remember Dallas barely beating Buffalo as a 10 ½ point road favorite a couple of Monday nights ago). Winless teams are 39-19-2 ATS as home underdogs or more than 7 points and Miami applies to another 50-14-1 ATS big home underdog situation. What about great teams like New England that continue to cover the spread week after week? Teams with a win percentage of .800 or higher that have covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games are only 21-41-1 ATS since 1980, so the fact that the Patriots have covered the spread in all 6 of their games is actually a reason to bet against them. That obviously didn’t work last week, but the 21 teams that were in that situation and covered the spread were just 5-15 ATS trying to cover in their next game – so I’m going to go against the Patriots again because everyone else is afraid to and that has created good value. By the way, there have been 8 teams since 1980 that covered the spread in each of their first 6 games. Not only are those teams 0-8 ATS in game 7, but they are also 0-8 straight up! That includes the “special” 1984 49ers and the “special” 1999 Rams, who went on to win Super Bowl titles, and two other teams that made it to the Super Bowl (Cincy in ’88 and San Diego in ’94). I don’t think the Patriots are going to lose this game, but they probably won’t be at their best and my math model still has Miami covering even if both teams play at their normal level. I’ll take Miami in a 3- Star Best Bet at +16 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +14 points.

2 Star Selection
**Atlanta 20 NEW ORLEANS (-8.5) 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
New Orleans wins a game against a mediocre Seattle team and now everyone thinks they’re back to being the team they were last year? How ridiculous. The Saints certainly have potential to be better offensively but their defense is simply horrible and will probably not get better. New Orleans has allowed 6.2 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl to an average team and they were 0.6 yppl worse than average in last week’s win (Seattle gained 6.2 yppl and would average 5.6 yppl at home against an average defensive team). Atlanta has had their problems offensively at times this season and they rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), but the offense should get better with Byron Leftwich taking over for Joey Harrington at quarterback and the Falcons have proven that they can move the ball against bad defensive teams – averaging 6.0 yppl and 23 points against Carolina and Houston – who aren’t nearly as bad defensively as the Saints. New Orleans has been 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl) while the Falcons are 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively this year, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense. Atlanta actually has an advantage on both sides of the ball over the Saints and they’re better on special teams too. My math model favors Atlanta by 1 ½ points, but I’ll give Drew Brees the benefit of the doubt and assume that he’ll start playing at his Pro Bowl level instead of being 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average that he’s been so far this year. Since his breakout season in 2004 Brees has averaged 6.8 yards per pass play, but my math model still only favors the Saints by 4 ½ points if I plug those numbers in for the Saints’ pass attack – so there is still enough value to favoring Atlanta to make them a profitable play. Brees is unlikely to play at his former level because he’s always had a very good rushing attack to keep teams from focusing on stopping the pass (he has LaDainian Tomlinson at San Diego and Deuce McAllister last year), but the loss of McAllister has left the Saints without a rushing threat as Reggie Bush averaged only 3.6 ypr last year and just 3.5 ypr so far this year. The Saints are 1-5 straight up and 1-5 ATS but they remain vastly overrated and I’ll take Atlanta in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.

2 Star Selection
**NY Jets 28 CINCINNATI (-6.5) 26
01:05 PM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
Cincinnati is 1-4 and their only win, a 27-20 opening day victory over Baltimore, was the product of 6 Baltimore turnovers (4 fumbles). The Bengals are actually a little better than their record, but teams with bad defenses usually make for poor favorites and Cincy is already 0-2 ATS this season laying 3 points or more – losing straight up to Cleveland the Kansas City. The Jets have also won only 1 game and I’m certainly not going to sign their praises, but New York applies to a very strong 46-8-1 ATS subset of a 124-47-3 ATS situation while the Bengals apply to a negative 31-89-1 ATS angle that is based on their bad defense. My math model favors Cincinnati by 6 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take the New York Jets in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 or more (-115 odds or better).

2 Star Selection
**St. Louis 19 SEATTLE (-8.5) 20
01:15 PM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
I’m not going to waste time breaking down these teams, as this game is not about match- ups. This Best Bet is about a very negative 0-31 ATS subset of a 3-55-1 ATS situation that applies to Seattle. I discovered this situation in 2000 when the record was 36-2-1 playing against the home favorite and it is 19-1 ATS for me since then. That is the strongest NFL situation that I have and I made the mistake of passing on it in week 5 when it applied against Denver in their game with San Diego. The Chargers had been playing horribly in their first 4 games but beat up on Denver 41-3 as a small dog with that situation favoring them. I passed that game because my math model strongly favored the Broncos. That is not the case here, as my math favors Seattle by 9 ½ points, which is pretty close to the line. The Rams get a healthy Marc Bulger back at quarterback this week, which could help their offense a bit given that he was playing hurt early in the season and Seattle’s pass attack isn’t as good without Deion Branch, who will miss his second straight week. The Seahawks averaged 6.9 yards per pass play without Branch last week, but they were facing a horrible Saints’ secondary that would allow 8.0 yppp on the road to an average team. Don’t be afraid to take the winless Rams, as winless teams (0-3 or worse) are 48-16-3 ATS as road underdogs of more than 6 points against teams with a win percentage of less than .666. I’ll take St. Louis in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 points or more.

2 Star Selection
**PHILADELPHIA (-5.0) 31 Chicago 18
01:15 PM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
People appear to still be clinging to the belief that the Bears are a good team and my math model continues to pick against them. The Bears are now 2-4 straight up and 1-5 ATS and they weren’t even impressive in their two wins, as they were out-gained 3.8 yppl to 4.7 yppl by Kansas City and 4.9 yppl to 7.2 yppl by Green Bay (the Packers gave that game to them with 5 turnovers). The Bears’ offense is certainly better with Brian Griese at quarterback, but Griese has still been below average this season (6.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback) and the rushing attack is bad too (3.3 ypr against teams that would allow 3.8 ypr). Problems exist with the normally stout Bears’ defense too, as injuries to Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher has decimated the secondary. In 4 games without Brown and Vasher the Bears have allowed 7.4 yppp (to teams that would average 6.6 yppp against an average team) and a horrendous 6.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. The only thing keeping Chicago close to respectable is return specialist Devon Hester. Philadelphia without a couple of star defensive backs too, as CB Sheppard has missed 4 games and FS Dawkins has missed the last 3 (both are questionable for this game). However, Philly has been average defensively in 4 games since Sheppard went down, allowing 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The Eagles haven’t played their best offensively this year, but they are still 0.3 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and should thrive against a now bad Bears’ defense. After making the adjustments for Griese, and the losses on defense for both teams, my math favors Philly by 13 points in a high scoring game. I’ll take Philadelphia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 or less and I’ll also consider the OVER a Strong Opinion at 43 points or less.

Strong Opinion
BUFFALO 19 Baltimore (-3.0) 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
Baltimore may be 4-2 but the Ravens are not a good team. Baltimore has played the easiest schedule in the NFL, as not one of their 6 opponents is a better than average team. Cleveland is actually the best team that the Ravens have faced and they lost that game 13- 27. Baltimore has averaged only 4.8 yards per play on offense despite facing teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team and they’ve been 1.2 yppl worse than average with Kyle Boller at quarterback, including averaging just 3.9 yppl last week against a bad Rams’ defense. The Ravens’ defense is not as good as most people think, as that unit has allowed 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The defense was worse than average in 3 games with starting CB Samari Rolle out and it will probably be worse than average for the next 3 weeks with the other starting CB Chris McAlister sidelined. Buffalo is not a good team either, but they’re good enough to win this game at home. The Bills have been 0.7 yards per play worse than average offensively in 3 games with rookie Trent Edwards at quarterback and Buffalo is 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively for the season. Overall, these teams are pretty close from the line of scrimmage with Boller at quarterback and McAlister out for Baltimore and my math model favors the Bills by 1 ½ points in this game. There are situations going against both teams, but there are stronger situations going against the Ravens and I’ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.

Strong Opinion
JACKSONVILLE 26 Indianapolis (-3.0) 24
05:30 PM Pacific, 22-Oct-07
I used the Jaguars as a 4-Star Best Bet at home against the Colts last season (a 44-17 win as a 1 point dog) and the Jags are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Indy. Coach Jack Del Rio and his defensive staff have apparently figured out how to contain the Peyton manning and the Colts’ explosive offense, as they’ve held Indy to an average of just 18.5 points in 4 games the last 2 seasons. My math model favors the Colts by 4 ½ points in this game, but Jacksonville applies to a 102-45-4 ATS Monday night situation in addition to a 61-19-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 211-114-6 ATS indicator. I also find it interesting that underdogs are 27-5-1 ATS since 1980 when two teams on 4 games or more winning streaks meet each other, including 11-0-1 ATS in divisional games and 9-1 ATS for home dogs (only loss was Dallas last week). The technical analysis is certainly strong enough to make the Jaguars a decent play despite the slightly negative line value. I’ll consider Jacksonville a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and I’d take the Jaguars in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.

[POlka]

[ QUOTE ]
***Memphis 36 RICE (-2.0) 27
I’ll take Rice in a 3-Star Best Bet at pick or as an underdog and for 2-Stars from -1 to -2 ½ points.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is an error in the writeup, Memphis obviously is the Pick.

[CardSharpCook]

This is probably some sort of copy-write infringement. Probably not supposed to copy paste this thing, dude. (I could be wrong)

however,

[ QUOTE ]
my math model favors the Ducks by 9 ½ points after factoring in the losses of Johnson and Colvin. The reason for siding with Oregon is a very strong 112-45-1 ATS momentum situation that favors the Ducks. I’ll consider Oregon a Strong Opinion at -12 points or less and I’d make Oregon a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.

[/ QUOTE ]


Is he serious???? The numbers he crunches says that you should bet on washington (I think the line opened at 11, but again, I could be wrong), but because Oregon "does so well ATS" Oregon becomes a "2star best bet"???

[MicroBob]

The Memphis/Rice write-up is particularly confusing.
He highlights Rice at the top of the write-up and then again reiterates Rice at the bottom. But the entire write-up is pro-Memphis and he obviously is on that side.

Is he high when he writes these?

Also, I have only read a couple of them but he seems to be using language about "ATS scheduling angle" and what-not.
Before he used to go into details about the specific scheduling-angle that caught his attention so that I could at least determine whether I thought it had any validity or not.

Is this a new thing for him....to not go into any details about his silly ATS trend stuff?

I'm believing more and more that this guy isn't that amazing.

[CrushinFelt]

Has he moved the NE line back down at all? I'd love to get that thing at 14.

[Jazzy3113]

thanks for this KDOG

[Austiger]

Dang. I thought he was on Rice, not Memphis. Sadly, I agree with him. Rice has been luckier than USF this year. Remember, Rice was a 21 point dog to Southern Miss.

Memphis PK -110

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
Has he moved the NE line back down at all? I'd love to get that thing at 14.

[/ QUOTE ]
bob doesn't move the NFL lines as much. sometimes you'll get 1/2 to one point moving off a weak number or a few bits of juice, but that's it.

this is probably because of a combination of a) NFL betting pool is larger, b) bob not followed and/or feared as much in pros vs. college.

[NajdorfDefense]

He's on Memphis.

[NajdorfDefense]

Ohio ST 4 star LOSS
Memphis 3 star win
Illini 3 star LOSS
Troy 2 star win
Fresno 2 star win
looks like 7-7 or so to me.

pix of Buffalo and SoCarolina and ECarolina and Colorado and Arizona, all lost as well, Zona lost outright, as did Illni and Pirates and SoCar as favorites.