whiffed draw or nuts?

chrismystero · #1 10-04-2007, 10:25 PM

$3 Triple Shootout turbo on 'Stars. 729 runners, 705 remain, final 2 tables (81) paid.

This is only the second hand so readless. I understand for sure that this is marginally between raising and folding preflop. Anyways, I decide to raise... As well, the flop may or may not be a cbet. However, given the action, what is to be done on the river?? Thoughts on all streets, (but especially River) appreciated.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t1500)
Button (t1460)
SB (t1620)
BB (t1480)
UTG (t1480)
Hero (t1480)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1480)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t60, 2 folds, MP3 calls t60, 3 folds, BB calls t40.

Flop: (t190) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t120, MP3 calls t120, BB folds.

Turn: (t430) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t250, MP3 calls t250.

River: (t930) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t1050 (All-In), Hero ?

jjyykk · #2 10-04-2007, 10:58 PM

Readless this is a really tough situation.

My inclination would have been to check/call the turn, based on bet size. I think once you actually hit the hand, you want to hit a cheap showdown.

MP cold calls after an UTG raiser indicate more strength than button/co calls, and could signify anything from a strong ace to a pocket pair. Since you didn't post any reads, I think I'd reluctantly fold the river.

Checking the turn should avoid this situation, and gives you information on what type of hand he's playing. Made hands vulnerable to the flush draw such as AK or 68 would probably have raised the turn, so his range seems to be polarized between pure air and hands that have you crushed.

kenny7 · #3 10-04-2007, 11:06 PM

I fold here. You bet twice and he called,that shows at least some strenght and you really aren't beating much. Even if he was on a draw and missed,good chance he has the Ac.

chrismystero · #4 10-04-2007, 11:07 PM

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Readless this is a really tough situation.

My inclination would have been to check/call the turn, based on bet size. I think once you actually hit the hand, you want to hit a cheap showdown.

MP cold calls after an UTG raiser indicate more strength than button/co calls, and could signify anything from a strong ace to a pocket pair. Since you didn't post any reads, I think I'd reluctantly fold the river.

Checking the turn should avoid this situation, and gives you information on what type of hand he's playing. Made hands vulnerable to the flush draw such as AK or 68 would probably have raised the turn, so his range seems to be polarized between pure air and hands that have you crushed.

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Your response is all over the place. On one hand you tell me his preflop cold call signifies strength (I disagree. Although it could, it's a $3 Triple Shootout, he calls with soo much preflop) And on the other hand you mention hands like 68. Also, I'm not a big fan of checking Turn at all.

chrismystero · #5 10-04-2007, 11:09 PM

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I fold here. You bet twice and he called,that shows at least some strenght and you really aren't beating much. Even if he was on a draw and missed,good chance he has the Ac.

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If he had a draw (say, flush draw as your implying) WITH the Ac, even a bad player raises this turn, don't ya think? I'm also beating any one pair on the flop, as well as pretty much all draws that missed. And, again, keep in mind, $3 buy in.

kenny7 · #6 10-04-2007, 11:34 PM

LOL,as you said,$3 buy-in,who knows what he does?? I will give you that he probably raises turn w Ac,altho not always....

I still say that there are a lot more hands he can have that has you beat than you actually beat,which is why I fold.

chrismystero · #7 10-04-2007, 11:51 PM

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I still say that there are a lot more hands he can have that has you beat than you actually beat,which is why I fold.

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hands such as?

kenny7 · #8 10-05-2007, 01:49 AM

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I still say that there are a lot more hands he can have that has you beat than you actually beat,which is why I fold.

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hands such as?

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OK,let me ask you this,other than 2 clubs,what hand do you think he's got? Taking into account the way the hand has been played so far?

I'm disregarding clubs for arguments sake bc if that is the only holding you think he's got,then obv you call. However,since you posted,I assume you think there are a few other possibilities.and I'm curious to which ones you think you can beat.

omg im l337 · #9 10-05-2007, 03:50 AM

preflop I raise more to around 80-100 since the 3 mtts have lots of bad players. Please don't cbet into a board like that. Tons of draws or made hands that he could have. Check the turn for pot control, and I would fold the river with no reads.

JammyDodga · #10 10-05-2007, 06:57 AM

I think checking the turn works well for the hand. We can then put in a blocking/value bet on the river and fold to a shove. With the pot size on the river as it was played out, bet folding sucks.

I think as played you need to find a fold.

I think that we might actually see a 5 here sometimes.

Something about that river has changed his play dramatically - either he missid his flush draw and has no chance of winning at showdown, or he just hit his hand. You cant really tell whcih i swhich though.

Oh, and folding this pre-flop is not marginal... seriously.

Fold this, fold AJ, fold KQ...