some may hate this?

[jstill]

not sure if a few people will flame me for this river play

villain is a pretty good player postflop but isnt very trusting and makes some thin/loose calls against players i think he views as aggressive or bluffers. Plays more tag preflop than myself and is a 2p2 lurker/ occasional poster who probably doesnt know who I am (which is why i was a bit hesitant to post this).

I wont comment much more on his play, I have some notes on him of things hes done in the past but dont have them in front of me. Hes not a bluffy or hugely aggressive player, his play postflop is mostly fairly straightforward by wpex standards.

preflop folds to Button who raises, hero 3bets 77 in sb, bb folds, Button caps

flop A 7h 3h
hero checks, button bets, hero raises, button 3bets, hero caps, button calls

turn 6h
hero bets, button calls

river Th
hero bets, button raises, hero folds (13:1)

[mvoss]

Hate is a strong word, I'll say that I think this will be a bluff more often than 1 in 14. If he´s a 2p2 lurker he may know the Clarkmeister line which sways me more towards a call.

[gehrig]

ya thats how i play it

[Nick C]

I would check-call the river, primarily because I really dislike folding sets HU, and I don't want to pay two bets to show down.

Anyway, though, it appears that Villain flopped top pair with a big ace of hearts. Either that, or he has a hand like AxKh. Or possibly he actually turned a flush with AhQh or something and decided to wait until the river to raise.

But we don't know that prior to the raise. So I don't hate the river play or anything, but as I said at the start, it's not one that I would make since I hate folding sets in HU pots.

I guess I should add too that, prior to any river action, if we give Villain a range of a big ace, and I think basically we can, then he'll have rivered a flush a little over 6/15 or 2/5 of the time (I'm discounting the AhXh possibility because of the lack of a turn raise). So there's not really a hell of a lot of actual value in a bet, and making the bet relies strongly on our ability to fold to a raise and also on the idea that Villain will check behind with his non-flush hands (which he probably will).

Basically you have no good options, and what your river play attempts to do is make the most of what has become an unprofitable street for you.

[scottfred]

on wpx I think i'd never fold a set HU

Preflop is fine, flop is fine, turn I think is fine and I'd probably go for a C/C on the river to try and induce him but I think even after betting i'd still call his raise

[27offsooot]

I think this is fine especially since the ace is not a heart.
I would guess u're good somewhere between 5 and 10%, so it seems close. Of course the equity difference between 5 and 10% is pretty big in a pot this big.

[TheHip41]

i like everything except the river. i just check call.

[Stef]

[ QUOTE ]




I guess I should add too that, prior to any river action, if we give Villain a range of a big ace, and I think basically we can, then he'll have rivered a flush a little over 6/15 or 2/5 of the time (I'm discounting the AhXh possibility because of the lack of a turn raise). So there's not really a hell of a lot of actual value in a bet, and making the bet relies strongly on our ability to fold to a raise and also on the idea that Villain will check behind with his non-flush hands (which he probably will).



[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, Nick or anyone else. I'm not very good with math so can you explain what your 6/15 numbers represent. I would think if we put villian on a rivered flush holding an Ace he makes that flush 1/3 times

[jstill]

basically stef we're assuming hands he would have played this way preflop and on the flop are AJ+. It's debatable about how often he caps AJo here preflop (or 3bets it on the flop) but this is pretty much his range, AQ+ seems very likely. Using hand reading going into the river we are assuming he has a big ace and thus assign this range.

out of those hands, there are 12 combos of each AK AQ and AJ. Out of those 12 combos 5 contain 1 heart, and one contains 2 (this we can discount somewhat since he didnt raise the turn). I think nick just messed up the numbers he came up with doing the combinatorial analysis. Either that or I have, which i dont think i did. I think nick just accidentally said there were 16 combos of each (true if the A isnt down), then discounted the one Ahxh combo from the total but then not from the number of hands that have a flush.

These numbers aren't the odds he makes a flush if he had a heart; they are the numbers that represent how many of his likely holdings will have a flush on the river.

hope this helps stef let me know if it didnt

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
basically stef we're assuming hands he would have played this way preflop and on the flop are AJ+. It's debatable about how often he caps AJo here preflop (or 3bets it on the flop) but this is pretty much his range, AQ+ seems very likely. Using hand reading going into the river we are assuming he has a big ace and thus assign this range.

out of those hands, there are 12 combos of each AK AQ and AJ. Out of those 12 combos 5 contain 1 heart, and one contains 2 (this we can discount somewhat since he didnt raise the turn). I think nick just messed up the numbers he came up with doing the combinatorial analysis. Either that or I have, which i dont think i did. I think nick just accidentally said there were 16 combos of each (true if the A isnt down), then discounted the one Ahxh combo from the total but then not from the number of hands that have a flush.

These numbers aren't the odds he makes a flush if he had a heart; they are the numbers that represent how many of his likely holdings will have a flush on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is right. (And you figured out what I did wrong, too.)