NL10 - JJ facing all in overbet

[Jw513]

Just got to the table so no reads.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($10.10)
UTG ($12)
MP ($8.80)
Hero ($9.85)
SB ($19.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J.
2 folds</font>, Hero raises to $0.35</font>, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($0.80) A, 3, A (2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets $0.6</font>, SB raises to $19.45 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

I really thought villain had a flush draw, but I couldn't pull the trigger.

[huhwhatyousay?]

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Just got to the table so no reads.

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I really thought villain had a flush draw.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Villain has to have an inordinately large ratio of flush draws to {Ax,33} to make it even close. Don't forget. Flush draws are still drawing live against you where you are practically drawing dead against Ax. I can't imagine this ever being a call w/ no reads. You played it well.

[Student Caine]

That's a pretty hefty bet. So we had no re-raise preflop, I honestly don't think that 33 or A3 plays this hand like this. But we could be looking at a horribly played weak Ace.

I don't think you can call it, but you definitely have to note the hand and see the aggression that this guy shows later on.

Man, but part of me thinks maybe a weak pocket pair too. So if we give this guy an absolutely huge range of all pp and any ace I wonder what our equity becomes.

[Student Caine]

Hmmm, even then our equity isn't that great:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.467% 66.08% 00.38% 95518 553.50 { 44+, A2s+, A2o+ }
Hand 1: 33.533% 33.15% 00.38% 47915 553.50 { JcJh }


And I think that realistically Ax and 44+ is our best case scenario here.

If we want to get really optimistic and eliminate the Aces, we get:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.369% 27.37% 01.00% 15174 553.50 { 44+ }
Hand 1: 71.631% 70.63% 01.00% 39159 553.50 { JcJh }

And we are way ahead of his range. I dunno' man it is so hard to say at 10NL wtf someone like this is doing here...

[cb4mvp]

Slightly ahead/drawing almost dead=easy fold. Well played.

[Esmerelda]

I wouldn't call this big an overbet unless villain was doing this with BS all the time. Probably he had AK, AQ or some such (and I would even wince calling with 33 since A3 is probably well within his range for the preflop call at 10NL)