advice pls

[Spota]

A buddy of mine and I each pick 5 games per week. We can pretty much make any bet that can be made with a sportsbook (parlays, over\unders, spreads, teasers, moneylines, props, etc…)

I am terrible at picking games and I usually end up picking with my favorite teams or teams I “feel” should cover. I use almost zero trend history or in depth analysis (nor am I looking to) other than tid bits I pick up on sports talk radio or ESPN.

For example, I am thinking about these picks this week and my "analysis" of why I am considering them

VA Tech -17 vs UNC
UNC is just plain awful

Bama +2 vs FSU
Bama lost a nailbiter this week and should come back strong.

Louisville -8 vs. NCSU
NCSU is awful.

tOSU -22 vs Minn
Not sure why, but I think they cover.

Houston Texans -3 vs Atlanta Falcons
Houston is strong to very strong and ATL lost to a bad Carolina team yesterday.

Chi Bears -3 vs Det Lions
Again, not sure why but I think Chi wins this easily.

NY Jets -2 vs Buf Bills
Jets are average to below average, but the Bills are awful.

Indy Colts -9.5 vs Den Broncos
Denver won the first two games with last second FGs and got smoked by a bad Jax team who got run over by Tenn two weeks ago.

I rarely will parlay any games and usually end up taking favorites and giving the points. He will parlay his football picks nearly 100% of the time and usually makes 3 2 team parlays (which pays 2.6:1) and 2 3 team parlays (which pays 6:1). Sometimes using the same games on different parlays.

I am 77-104-4 (-23.91 units) and he is 81-97-7 (-11.35 units). I lost most of mine during MLB picking over\unders and money lines (thanks Braves).

I’m not looking for input on the games I listed above (although it’s okay). I’m more looking for everyone’s input on my optimal strategy going forward with making exactly 5 picks per week.

[New001]

That's a lot of road favorites...

If you don't have any really strong reasoning for why to take one team versus another, avoid teams that are favored on the road. In fact, you might do good to just stop picking them altogether.

If you're picking blindly (which, let's face it, you might as well be), look to make plays against teams that a lot of other people might be taking. If your sports radio talk shows or ESPN is touting a certain team as being a "sure thing," pick the opposite.

[SunOfBeach]

I honestly have what I think is some VERY reasonable advice here, and you can do it all just by reading this forum:

1. At least for the next ~8 weeks or so, make 1 of your 5 picks every week MT2R's NCAAf pick of the week. He's posted recently that he's like 23-11 or something like that posting them here over the last 2+ years, and I can verify that somewhat as I played them myself last year and thus far this year (and am happy that I did). This lost this past weekend (Indy+3), but won the previous 3 weeks (he's 3-1 thus far this year).

2. Follow trixtrix on MMA bets, which happen about twice/month or so. He's the best MMA capper on the internet, and I've been (profitably) following him for over a year (both here, and before that on another sportsbetting forum). This worked great this past weekend (as bets on Fitch-120 and Griffin+340 cashed for me nicely).

Hope it helps.

[Crusher19]

way too many road favorites, dont be afraid to take some home dogs or home teams in general