LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)

[Stephen H]

Okay, I'm basically caught up with this thread now.

I don't think Chuckles was peeked. I think currently our two seer-cleareds are fcbl and fortfun.

Nez and chuck are my villager reads right now - I'd be shocked if either one of them was a wolf. Nez has been villagery all game, and now that I've really thought about the day dmk drove a TFG lynch, it doesn't make sense that the other wagon there was a wolf - clown voted for chuck, and herbie/nich both voted for chuck, so the wolves we know were all on chuck over TFG. Plus, chuck's weekend posts were pretty fantastic (except for the part where he thinks I'm a wolf - but at least he's actively trying to find wolves). No one else jumps out at me as being particularly villagery right off the bat.

We need to find two wolfs before we decide between nich and herbie. So my next step is to read over Bram, fmxda, jeremy, jack, and mark and see which two make the most sense as wolves. Sadly, several of those will be pretty quick reads.

[Nez477]

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My initial read was the chuckles was a wolf, that hasnt changed.
And I dont see how we can ignore posts like this from the seer

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About all I can get from Skoobs posts is that they peeked Dustin and Luckay as wolves ah good times. Actually, maybe dmk was peeked as villager.

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and..... chuckles is a wolf

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If chuckles is a villager, then lolseer for these posts.
If chuckles chuckles is a wolf and we dont lynch him, then LOLVILLAGE for ignoring seer statements like this.

(notice that caps means it's a bigger mistake to clear a wolf than to lynch a villager)

chuckles for now

also, I'm still undecided on how to resolve the nich/herbie situation, but I do have one that I believe more over the other.

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You picked one of 421 posts in which Eskimo said we should never ever lynch Chuckles. You can't weigh that one above the others.

[Nez477]

Stephen,

Jack is the only one that is not a wolf for sure out of the list you mentioned. Otherwise we're on the same page. Great find with the bandwagons against TFG/Chuckles

[HerbieGRD]

So then we come to the night 2 nightkill. Who do the evils choose to kill? Aaron - the claimed Gandalf. The important question here is why do they kill Aaron over Skoob? Aragorn can't protect Frodo/Sam so they could have easily killed Skoob and roleblocked Aaron. Killing an outed Frodo or Sam is better for the wolves than killing an outed Aragorn because it puts pressure on whoever is the other (Frodo or Sam) to start leaving hints which they don't have to do until one of them is dead. Also Gandalf can be roleblocked indefinitely allowing a wolf to fake-claim Gandalf if they need to which they can't do with Frodo/Sam because of the masonry aspect - if a wolf fake claimed Sam he could be proved wrong, if he fake-claimed Gandalf he couldn't until Aaron was dead.

By killing Aaron instead of Skoob the wolves confirmed Aaron and lent a very powerful piece of mathematical evidence to bolster Nich's Aragorn claim (which was generally viewed with extreme skepticism at the time) that gave the wolves no additional benefit and in fact was otherwise detrimental to them winning the game (because of what I said earlier).

[Thebram]

[ QUOTE ]
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My initial read was the chuckles was a wolf, that hasnt changed.
And I dont see how we can ignore posts like this from the seer

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
About all I can get from Skoobs posts is that they peeked Dustin and Luckay as wolves ah good times. Actually, maybe dmk was peeked as villager.

[/ QUOTE ]

and..... chuckles is a wolf

[/ QUOTE ]

If chuckles is a villager, then lolseer for these posts.
If chuckles chuckles is a wolf and we dont lynch him, then LOLVILLAGE for ignoring seer statements like this.

(notice that caps means it's a bigger mistake to clear a wolf than to lynch a villager)

chuckles for now

also, I'm still undecided on how to resolve the nich/herbie situation, but I do have one that I believe more over the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

You picked one of 421 posts in which Eskimo said we should never ever lynch Chuckles. You can't weigh that one above the others.

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the problem is, in most of those "CHUCKLES SHOULD NEVER BE LYNCHED" posts, there was also a "chuckles is a wolf" comment

ignoring one half of that is more dangerous than the other

also, were some of them just "chuckles is a wolf, but I WILL NEVER EVER VOTE FOR HIM"
meaning he figured he'd die before we lynched him?

[Nez477]

Just keeping track..

CONFIRMED or near confirmed villagers:

FortFun (seer)
FCBL (seer)
Jack Bando (my best read)
Nez (me, rly)
One of Herbie/Nich (Nich looked good till this morning, Herbie making sensible posts)
Chuck (95% villager)

[HerbieGRD]

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why do u think they failed at hitting gandalf n1 when they didn't know me but then happened to get him n2 once they could roleblock me?

yes, could be coincidence, but only 50% likely

so if u believe me/herbie equally, then lynch herbie

if u believe him >2x more than me, then lynch me today and herbie tomorrow

[/ QUOTE ]
And of course Nich is the person to make this argument - that if Nich wasn't Aragorn then the wolves took a 50% shot at killing Gandalf over a 100% shot at killing Frodo or Sam. And while true this is not nearly the "proof" that Nich would like you to believe.

No kills have been blocked since Nich came out as Aragorn - Gollum was guaranteed to leave the game at some point since he had come out the day before so he wasn't going to get lynched or nightkilled. We are currently at 9-4 (an odd number of players). If the wolves kill had been blocked that night we would be at 10-4 right now (or some other configuration that involves 14 remaining players). When villages have an even number of players remaining they almost always choose no-lynch at some point to delay must lynch a day especially when there are not likely to be any confirmed villagers at must-lynch (which - given the events of the first few days definitely seemed like it would be the case here).

So it wasn't like the wolves were taking a 50% shot at MISSING a nightkill - they were taking a 50% shot at DELAYING a nightkill until later in the game. Getting their kill blocked that night would not have resulted in wolves needing an additional mislynch to win - it would have only resulted in the wolves passing on seer hunting for one night (which is much more plausible given that two of the three were already outed).

The only remaining issue is that if the kill had failed Nich would have been under even more pressure than he was the day before. The point against this is that there are many people here (myself included) who do not generally believe in lynching claimed power roles until there is a counterclaim. So basically when the wolves decided to kill Aaron that night they were weighing two scenarios

Scenario 1 - The kill is blocked, Nich gets lynched the next day and the real Aragorn likely counterclaims or strongly hints at his identity through his actions in getting Nich lynched

Scenario 2 - the kill goes through and Nich has a powerful mathematical argument to bolster an otherwise very weak roleclaim probably giving them an extra lynch at some point when the real Aragorn counterclaims (assuming they don't kill him at night first)

Anyone who knows Nich's wolf game knows that his entire goal is to do one thing that "clears" him. In this case he chose the Aaron kill because he felt that the potential downside was minimal and the upside was likely an extra mislynch when the real Aragorn counterclaimed him. It is the exact same idea behind him voting for IY the last day of Lunar Legend after FCBL voted for him - he would NEVER do that as a wolf because it would be so stupid that he HAS to be a villager.

[Nicholasp27]

herbie,


so your argument is that wolves knew skoob was one of frodo/sam on n2 but chose not to kill him or roleblock him? so they'd have 50% shot at making me look better? knowing i can't last until endgame since eventually real aragorn would be discovered?


that's ur argument?


my analysis of the situation is that they didn't realize skoob was frodo/sam that night, so they roleblocked me and killed gandalf...if they realized that skoob was frodo/sam by n2, then they woulda roleblocked aaron and killed skoob that night...obv wolves didn't realize it until after...either way, to claim that they didn't kill frodo/sam in order to have a 50% shot at making me look better is horrible

[Nicholasp27]

el oh el

u think i wanted us to go 50/50 on a blocked aaron in order to have a 50% shot at making myself look better? KNOWING that i could NOT survive until endgame because real aragorn would eventually die exposing me?


AND, u think that i was even around at night to tell my wolves to do this...

AND, u think that my wolves went along with this plan? instead of killing the known frodo/sam skoob?


give me a break

[Nicholasp27]

fact: aaron dying n2 makes me 2x more likely to be aragorn than herbie

very strong probability: if wolves realized skoob was sam/frodo n2, they would have killed skoob that night, thus it is VERY likely that they didn't realize skoob was frodo/sam n2


herbie wants u to get past the 2x test from the fact AND believe in the VERY UNLIKELY (must less than 50% from first one) chance that wolves knew skoob was frodo/sam AND didn't kill skoob...yeah right