200NL cash inside straight flush draw turn - bet or check?

[abcjnich]

I hate being a teacher for the donks out there, but here goes.

On the turn, if you check, you have 38% equity in a 28 pot= 10.64

If you bet 18, your equity becomes .38*(28+18+18)-18= 6.32 for a resulting pot of 64 going to the river.

So basically your AVERAGE profit of a river vbet has to gain you only ~4$ more if you bet 18 on the turn than if you check the turn. This is easily done, as naturally the bets are bigger in a 64 pot than a 28 pot.

There are other factors. These are basically: 1.getting raised on the turn and 2.folding a better hand on the turn (usually a 9). It would obviously take a long time to figure out exactly how villain would react to each line w/ every hand in his range, but I think the basis here is that betting the turn is more profitable.