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  #1481  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:30 PM
kidcolin kidcolin is offline
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Default Re: Official NBA Season Thread

I think your thought process is OK, it's just you need to think about how the change in rebound opportunities vs. the effect pace has.

Take the current game, with ~80 FGs per game. With a FG% of 45%, that leaves 44 opportunities for a rebound. (I'm guessing the reason there are only 41 RPG is blocks and balls out of bounds). If they shot 48% instead, that's only 2.5 less rebound opportunities. Not enough to swing your top rebound guy from 12 per game to 14 or 15.

But if you're chucking 100 shots instead, then blammo. You've got a ton of opportunities, regardless of whether you shoot 40% or 50%.

Probably more importantly, I've thus far ignored that the big reason FG% is down is the love affair with the 3pter, so looking just at FG% with respect to scoring is flawed.
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  #1482  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:00 PM
ThaSaltCracka ThaSaltCracka is offline
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Default Re: Official NBA Season Thread

I don't think # of shots is the best way to gauge pace. Wouldn't change of possesions be better?

Also, the game was different in the 60's and 70's then it is now. The three point was added, lowering FG%.

Not sure how to prove this, but I think players are probably better at shooting now then in the past.
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  #1483  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:05 PM
ThaSaltCracka ThaSaltCracka is offline
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Default Re: Official NBA Season Thread

btw, wouldn't you know it, right after I get down hating on God, a piece shows up on MSN saving he is now one.
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  #1484  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:25 PM
squashington squashington is offline
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Default Re: Official NBA Season Thread

[ QUOTE ]
tuq,

you're sorta making crap up. While FG% is a factor, generally scoring is a factor of pace. The lower the pace, the lower # of shots, thus lower scoring and lower rebound possibilities.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...gue_stats.html

I mean.. look at the 60s. They were scoring like 115 and grabbing 55 boards a game.

[/ QUOTE ]


But NBA pace has been up in recent years? (comparable to the 90's/early 00's) As a whole, the trend points towards the faster pace continuing; more athletic players, smaller lineups, hybrid forwards, etc. There's also been rule changes that permit for higher scoring. It's not secret Stern wants to see the game open up more.



[ QUOTE ]
While offenses immediately responded to the rules re-interpretation, with league-wide efficiency jumping from 104.2 points per 100 possessions in 2003-04 to 107.4 in 2004-05, the impact on pace has been more gradual. In fact, after the league's average number of possessions per team per 48 minutes went up from 89.0 to 89.8 in 2004-05, it slipped back to 89.3 the following season. It was last year that the NBA really began running again. Average possessions per team per game reached 90.6, just the second time in 11 years they topped the 90 mark. The caveat again applies that it is very early this season, but pace has taken another dramatic leap league-wide to 92.8 possessions per team per 48 minutes trough Monday. If that held up, it would be the fastest the league has played since 1993-94.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...rticleid=44<br />
[/ QUOTE ]



More possessions = more shot attempts ===&gt; more rebounds and scoring

Yeah it's unlikely someone could avg. 30/15, but talented big men are so rare now it's not inconceivable. Howard is definitely dominate, and IMO if he stays healthy he'll go down as one of the best ever at both ends of the floor.
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  #1485  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:28 PM
kidcolin kidcolin is offline
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Default Re: Official NBA Season Thread

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think # of shots is the best way to gauge pace. Wouldn't change of possesions be better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe, but not necessarily. I think 15-20 more shots per game being completed at a higher clip is a pretty good indicator of a faster pace.
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  #1486  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:30 PM
squashington squashington is offline
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Default Re: Official NBA Season Thread

[ QUOTE ]


Not sure how to prove this, but I think players are probably better at shooting now then in the past.

[/ QUOTE ]

Teams have access to a much larger pool of players now, so yeah.
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  #1487  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:51 PM
FlyWf FlyWf is offline
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Default Re: Official NBA Season Thread

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think # of shots is the best way to gauge pace. Wouldn't change of possesions be better?

Also, the game was different in the 60's and 70's then it is now. The three point was added, lowering FG%.

Not sure how to prove this, but I think players are probably better at shooting now then in the past.

[/ QUOTE ]

FT% percentage has climbed over time, FWIW.
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  #1488  
Old 11-29-2007, 06:04 PM
Spellmen Spellmen is offline
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Default Re: Official NBA Season Thread

[ QUOTE ]
Man, Dwight Howard is a beast and most fans don't even realize it yet. He's only 21 years old and is averaging 24/15 with ~3 blks.

What's this kid's ceiling? Can't remember the last time I saw someone his size with such remarkable agility. Once his offensive game is more refined it's very possible he'll have some 30/15 seasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, he really doesn't seem to be talked about a whole lot. I don't really see why his ceiling can't be Shaq-high
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  #1489  
Old 11-29-2007, 07:57 PM
Jack of Arcades Jack of Arcades is offline
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Default Re: Official NBA Season Thread

Most elite players peak early.

Shaq put up 29.3 ppg at 21 and 22
Lebron already hit 30 ppg at 21
MJ had 37 PPG at 23 (28 at 21)
Wilt had 50 at 25
Barry had 35 at 22
Kobe peaked "late" - 35 at 27 - but he still had 30 at 24.
Kareem had 31 at 23.
Duncan's pretty much been the same player since he entered the league.

Dwight turns 22 in a week, it's possible this is the best we're gonna see out of him.
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  #1490  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:35 PM
kidcolin kidcolin is offline
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Default Re: Official NBA Season Thread

you're just looking at points. MJ dropped 37 at 23, but he "peaked" (by his insane standards), ages 24-27 (PER=31). His points dropped, but he started passing the ball and rebounding like crazy.

Same goes for Duncan, Shaq, KG, etc. Scoring didn't increase like crazy, but they got so much better at the other things. Shaq became a great passer ~26 or 27. Duncan improved his rebounding.

Now, let's talk about Dwight. He's shooting 61% this year. He's posting a 27 PER. He's already a better rebounder than Shaq ever was. If he can sustain this production, a Shaq-esque ceiling is pretty fair. Now, I don't exactly expect that. The reason his shooting % is so nuts is because he basically dunks. Which is fine, but that's also why he doesn't shoot a lot of shots. If he ever wants to drop 27-30 a game, he needs to get the ball a lot more and take more shots. Which means he'll have to develop a better offensive game. His %'s will likely drop. I don't know if he can ever match Shaq's combination of offensive prowess while shooting such a high percentage. Shaq was pretty insane in that regard.

I guess that's my long-winded way of saying he'll be insanely good, but I doubt he'll match Shaq's peak.
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