AA on paired board, let it go?

[Bill Smith]

Villian is 50/10/3 through 85 hands. Most of what he's shown down has been decent though.

Absolute Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($13.25)</font>
<font color="#C00000">SB ($18.40)</font>
BB ($4.85)
UTG ($21.45)
MP ($10.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.5</font>, SB calls $0.45, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.60) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $3.65</font>, UTG folds, Hero...

[homeslice]

Yeah, I let it go...

[castigar]

Book says to fold. But since you're in position, I call and decide on the turn.

[postoakpoker]

The only holding im scared of here is 55. I can't see him having a 9 in his hand, and if he did, why would he raise you on such an innocuous flop? Why not smooth call and keep giving you rope? I should note that I don't use PT (yet) and therefore am not familiar with what 50/10/3 indicates.

[Bill Smith]

[ QUOTE ]
I should note that I don't use PT and therefore am not familiar with what 50/10/3 indicates.

[/ QUOTE ]

First number: Voluntary Put Money In Pot % (VP$IP)
Second number: Preflop Raise % (PFR)
Third number: Aggression Factor (AF)

[postoakpoker]

Okay, thanks; as for the hand, I smooth call the flop raise and check to villain on the turn. I would expect him to bet $4-5 and then I would probably push. If he open-pushes turn I would snap-call and expect him to table 55-JJ. As I said before, I can't see any hands that contain a 9 that he cold-calls a PF raise OOP with. 55 is possible, but along the same lines of him having a 9 in his hand, there's no reason to raise you on the flop after the deck just hit him square in the face. Thoughts/comments?

[catoandtonic]

This guy plays 50% of hands and has a aggression factor of 3 which means he doesnt call much. More than likely he doesnt give up on many pots just because someone cbet. I dont see any reason to give him credit for a 9 or 55.

I just call flop because raising gives him a chance to fold many hands we beat and continue the rare times we are behind. I check behind on turn to induce river bluffs if he checks. If he bets turn, we push. On river, we push if he bets or value bet if he checks.

[Lego05]

I call and then take it from there.

[jasonfish11]

[ QUOTE ]
This guy plays 50% of hands and has a aggression factor of 3 which means he doesnt call much. More than likely he doesnt give up on many pots just because someone cbet. I dont see any reason to give him credit for a 9 or 55.

I just call flop because raising gives him a chance to fold many hands we beat and continue the rare times we are behind. I check behind on turn to induce river bluffs if he checks. If he bets turn, we push. On river, we push if he bets or value bet if he checks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this 100%.

I have noticed a lot of people with higher AF(3+) like this guy seem to be anything but aggressive when they flop a monster. I would bet this guys thinks you are Cbeting and he maybe even be making this play with as little as KQ or AJ. This is the perfect board for him to CR a cbet and he knows it. I would follow the advice I quoted.

[Kingz22]

I've been bluffed out of Aces like that. Personally it's even difficult to say if the bluff is the exception rather, not the rule, or the other way around. I've even seen gutshot draws play like that.

I would have gone all in at that raise.