NL50: OMG what a hand! Can I fold to the AI on the Flop? - Page 2

diebitter · #11 05-17-2007, 05:40 AM

There are 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn, so about 34pc to hit a boat or quads.

Just remember as a rule a flopped set has a third of a chance to hit a boat+ by the end.

Also your reasoning really didn't properly take into account draws, undersets etc, so... this is clearly a hand that is +EV to all-in on on the flop.

Think of it this way: given the bets and action and the hand ranges that others could have given their betting to that point, playing this hand a million times over and doing the AI each time will make you money.

Larude · #12 05-17-2007, 05:52 AM

Okey you are right Carter I have to start better reading and thinking before I go on writing [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. He has to win this 1 out of 6 times, so he needs to get there at least 16,5% of the time. Therefore he needs 4 clean outs, he has them allright. I hope we though agree on the fact that doesn't has as much outs you say he has, because of the action. On average I think about 7 total. I mean other persons could have sets, two pair toppair al that sort of things.

diebitter · #13 05-17-2007, 06:18 AM

huh? you're suggesting one has the straight, and the other takes some of your outs?

That's scared thinking. even so, worst case means you lose 2 outs a round, so 13 outs in all...26pc to hit something better.

are we disagreeing on the AI still?

Larude · #14 05-17-2007, 06:58 AM

No definitely not on the all-in, I made a fault by assuming there was only one street to go. And I also agree with your 26% to the river in the Worst Case Scenario, so it is an easy call, as said you only need about 16,5% equity.

Ampelmann · #15 05-17-2007, 07:23 AM

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Gotta go AI here. BB OTOH, probably should fold after the reraise.

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Can anyone really fold a set at this level? I'd have a very hard time to do so.

Ampelmann · #16 05-17-2007, 07:32 AM

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Maybe it is a fold with this action. We are getting about 1:5 which means you should have about 8 outs.

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We're getting two cards for this price, so we only need only 5 outs to make that call. We have may more than that. Even if we knew for sure someone else had a set on the flop (not unlikely, given the action), we have 4 outs on the flop and 7 on the turn, giving us more than enough equity to make the call.

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BB says well i can beat a set, so he has to have a big set like JJ or a straight more leaning towards a straight.

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It's pretty unlikey that BB has JJ, and if he has a straight that's pretty cool, too, since we already suspect straights form other people. Straights don't take away our outs.

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So if you had folded in this spot i think that wouldn't be bad either, it's a marginal situation. If we look at the results these 2 guys with QQ and 99 played it awfully with the information they got, but yeah we can't assume that they are so bad can we?

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Well, this is NL50. "I have teh overpair and an OESD! I go all-in!" I'd fold 99 here, but I'd have a hard time doing so.