|
|
#1
06-05-2007, 03:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
NL400 Poker Stars
6 handed Effective stacks are 350 Villain seems kinda donkish... over-values hands, makes strange bluff, etc. MP limps. Hero raises button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to $18. Villain calls from the SB. BB fold. MP folds. <font color="blue">Note villain called from the SB. Not that it means much. Villain was runnign somewhere around vpip 27. </font> FLOP ($46) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Villain donks flop to $35. Hero raise to $110 <font color="blue"> !? </font> Villain calls. <font color="blue"> Does anyone like the flop raise? I still don't know how I feel about it, but I think calling is probably best. </font> TURN ($266): K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Villain checks. Hero pushes all-in... $222. <font color="blue"> Who likes taking the free card on the turn? </font> 
|
|
#2
06-05-2007, 03:56 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
I like calling the flop, unless he's shown he'll donk/fold an awful lot. His read that he overvalues hands also makes me wanna call, because our implied odds are bigger and he's never folding any king to a flop raise. I'd like a flop raise with the NFD, since it usually gives us 3 more outs and he could also 3bai w/ a worse draw.
As played, I think with the extra gutshot outs we picked up, I like a push. We're about a 3:1 dog against his calling range, so he only needs to fold the turn ~15% to make a shove profitable.
|
|
#3
06-05-2007, 04:08 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
[ QUOTE ]
I like calling the flop, unless he's shown he'll donk/fold an awful lot. His read that he overvalues hands also makes me wanna call, because our implied odds are bigger and he's never folding any king to a flop raise. I'd like a flop raise with the NFD, since it usually gives us 3 more outs and he could also 3bai w/ a worse draw. As played, I think with the extra gutshot outs we picked up, I like a push. We're about a 3:1 dog against his calling range, so he only needs to fold the turn ~15% to make a shove profitable. [/ QUOTE ] yeah, we have the same thoughts on the flop. At the same time, he played such weird lines like donking the flop alot that I thought there was a decent chance that it was an underpair that would fold. However, I'm still like > 50% against an underpair so why should I even try and push it. If he calls my raise, I'm surely less than 50%. And the worst part of the raise is that I should probably call a push from him because I'll be getting 2-1. So I stuck alot of money in the pot when I'm almost surely way behind...raising sucks. Do you mind showing your math for how if he folds 15% of the time that it's profitable?
|
|
#4
06-05-2007, 04:25 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
Assuming we are 3:1 dog (you can mess around with what you think is calling range is):
.85(488*.25)+.85(-222*.75) = -$37.50 .15*266 = $40 $40 - $37.50 = $2.50 It's slightly +EV if he folds 15% of the time. 20% is closer to a +5BB decision.
|
|
#5
06-05-2007, 09:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
bump
|
|
#8
06-05-2007, 09:53 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
Profitable doesn't mean most profitable. We win roughly .25 * 260 = 65, and sometimes win .25 * 500 = 125. Say that he pays off on spade river 1/2 the time, then we make about $63 in the long run. So FE has to be much higher than 20% for betting to be better.
|
|
#10
06-05-2007, 09:58 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
[ QUOTE ]
Profitable doesn't mean most profitable. We win roughly .25 * 260 = 65, and sometimes win .25 * 500 = 125. Say that he pays off on spade river 1/2 the time, then we make about $63 in the long run. So FE has to be much higher than 20% for betting to be better. [/ QUOTE ] yeah, this was my point. assuming that all 12 of our outs are clean and we don't have any implied odds, we still need Villain to fold close to 33% for pushing to be more profitable THAN checking. The question is will he fold KQ 33% of the time? edited for math.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
