A really cool hand I played

[craigthedeac]

Easy call.

When he calls your 3b preflop, he leaves 2 other people behind him to act. No way he invites them to come along as well by calling when he has a big pocket pair.

That eliminates QQ+. 99-JJ never make this shove on the flop. In a big pot between 2 very aggro players, he will have air or draws a huge % of the time here making it a pretty +EV call IMO.

[plan9]

He's probably putting you on a squeeze/AK, and called with the intention with restealing on the flop with whatever he called with. From what you're saying he's probably 4bet/pushing preflop with premiums a lot given your image/dead money. IDK about 99-JJ, though. Not sure that's right but if it is an accurate read...

In his mind, you most likely have some high-card hand so if he had any strength at all he'd call you down instead of bluffing you out.

[orange]

Hey greg,

I think this flop is a call. UTG can be calling with a fairly wide range of hands PF, and I think that 70% of these hands have the intention of shoving a flop like this.

I'm not sure if he would play AA/KK pf like this because of it maybe rolling into a huge multiway pot. Though I think he might shove AK PF here as well.

I think his shoving range on the flop is wide enough to warrent a call. 88 is very close to the bottom of my calling range here though.

[Luckyz]

he knows u sqeeze there, so he calls preflop with any2 and c/r flop with any2, which is +ev i think.
AA/KK is an easy call preflop and a c/r on flop

[Jay Riall]

Yup, I think your squeeze is large enough that calling with AA/KK would be fine, the other people still aren't really getting great odds to hit a set or w/e, and a lot of the time they fold and he gets your cbet monies, or he gets another caller who misses the flop a big % of the time.

[Logun]

I agree with Orange's reasoning however I am still very afraid of the 2 overs +FD which has a lot of different possibilites from a "wild" opponent.

What could his range be:
well most of us would agree that AA/KK are out so that leaves 22- JJ, AQ and lower however AQ might be 5 bet PF reasoning by way of read that he is 2nd most aggres player at the table. And Multiple SCs - say 9Ts- KQs

I personally don't mind the call, but I'm not a fan. I think it is super thin.

[Don Key E37]

Good hand and some good discussion. Although I'm not sure I agree that he can't have AQ here. A lot of people rarely 4 bet AQ and given your wide 3 betting range I think it's possible that he did call it playing for a pair. 55 and 66 are also possibilities I think given that he has position on you and he might have other callers behind him to give him better odds to play for a set. That said I think a hand like J 10 hearts is very likely here for villian, mabye even Q J hearts which would be real ugly for you, although he probably doesn't shove this hand. Problem is J 10 hearts is still a race and with the other possible hands calling here is very very thin. That said with all the money already in the pot and you have to call less than 400 to win 1200 I don't think calling is bad at all, just not sure I'd do it.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call.

When he calls your 3b preflop, he leaves 2 other people behind him to act. No way he invites them to come along as well by calling when he has a big pocket pair.

That eliminates QQ+. 99-JJ never make this shove on the flop. In a big pot between 2 very aggro players, he will have air or draws a huge % of the time here making it a pretty +EV call IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly enough, this means he SHOULD shove 99-JJ and any Q here...

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

OK guys. Let me make some comments. I think we got some good discussion and I'm glad, as that was my purpose.

Bilbo - really quickly addressing your post since it was the last thing I read, yes he SHOULD shove 99-qq here according to your logic, but can he actually have those hands?

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Moss - I like a lot of your thoughts, but make sure they conincide with each other. He cannot be shoving AK on the flop if he cannot have AA/KK, because AK is shoving preflop as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. Given that he is competent and knows you're 3betting a fairly wide range here preflop, I completely agree that he doesn't have AK here.

Greg, a question for you: with 2 possible overcalls behind, what kind of range do you think preposterous can call your 3bet with (correctly)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mossberg - I love your thought process in this thread. It's really spot on a lot.

This is the crux of the whole problem. Once you guys figure out what he can profitably call preflop with, then you will get the answer. Hint: This may be a trick question.

One more thing about his 99+, AQ+ range preflop. Against my squeeze, combined with all the dead money in the pot, and also combined with the issue of a possibility of 2 callers behind, an aggressive player will shove those in his spot. I'm providing this information because the aggressiveness of this particular MSNL hand was probably a lot more aggressive than SSNL games generally are, and I feel like that fact is making some of you guys overlook the big point. So, call it a read or a fact or whatever, but he can't have TT+ or AK. I add 99 and AQ to his range because I have been playing especially aggro, and also his range there is wider than most others in this situation.

So, the next step is to analyze his resulting preflop range. Mossberg hit it perfectly, what can he profitably call preflop with? Can he call preflop with:

1) TT+/AK (99+/AQ+ for our purposes)
2) Some Qx hand
3) Suited Connector
4) Pocket Pair

Given that:
1) There are two people behind him (assume on average one person calls I guess)
2) I have been 3betting a lot

I guess there is some math to be done here, which I have. Feel free to work some out, but I'm not sure it's necessary.

I have to go to a meeting at 7, but I will be back afterwards.