Daliman's NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 1

[dudeimstoked]

I found the wongable line for jax at betjm but not at 5dimes.

[pokergrader]

Nice first week folks. Damn I love wong teasers.

[Jazzy3113]

Daliman wakes up and pisses excellence

[Daliman]

Nice to start the new season the same way the last one ended.


Week 1 results;
Teased games: 3-0 (100%)
2 team teases: 3-0 100%)
+1740

[lumpy19]

[ QUOTE ]
I was on Jax too but still turned out a profit for the week cos I decided to middle Bengals game.
I sat calculating the EV for my options and was a bit surprised to see the middle was best, (I might have used too rough numbers).

[/ QUOTE ]

this is my first season on the Wong teasers(read the book in the spring) and I sat there last night thinking I should middle this game(Cin -2.5 was at my book) and couldn't rememeber reading anything about it so I passed. After reading this I'm glad that I won but pissed I missed out on a really good night.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was on Jax too but still turned out a profit for the week cos I decided to middle Bengals game.
I sat calculating the EV for my options and was a bit surprised to see the middle was best, (I might have used too rough numbers).

[/ QUOTE ]

this is my first season on the Wong teasers(read the book in the spring) and I sat there last night thinking I should middle this game(Cin -2.5 was at my book) and couldn't rememeber reading anything about it so I passed. After reading this I'm glad that I won but pissed I missed out on a really good night.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't look at it like that. You didn't have a "middle" opportunity, you had a hedge opportunity, and Homer said something about those once, but I can't for the life of me remember what is what as he was very long-winded and vague about it.

Anyways, if Cin -2.5 looked like a good bet to you, you should have bet it on it's own merits, but the tease shouldn't factor at all.

[Limpfold]

I used the charts available from smartcapper linked in the FAQ to estimate the probability of Bengals winning with 3-9 pts then calculated Bengals win probability from Pinny's moneyline.
I'm sure more mathknowledgable people will find flaws in this method but I suspect the number you get aren't that far from a more exact analysis.
Then I compared EV using the Cin -3 +108, Cin -7.5 +215 and let it ride options and found the Cin -3 +108 to be the best (~7% better than letting it ride)
Basically I was just out to minimize my loss since betting Wong's roundrobin is huge variance.
Losing 1 leg is very acceptable while losing 2 legs or more cause a huge BR dent.

I spent some time today calculating possible outcomes when roundrobining Wong teasers so for those of you who are curious here's the result doing full roundrobins of 3,4 and 5 teamers.

I used 75% as the chance of a 6pt teased wongable game to win.

3 teamer: 0-1 games won = 15.62%
2 games won = 42.19%
3 games won = 42.19%


4 teamer 0-1 games won = 5.08%
2 games won = 21.09%
3 games won = 42.19%
4 games won = 31.64%

5 teamer 0-1 games won = 1.56%
2 games won = 8.79%
3 games won = 26.37%
4 games won = 39.55%
5 games won = 23.73%

Now what I'm really interested in is how to decide/adjust the unit size to keep the chance of going busto being to high.
I also question using 75% as winning probability overall, I think it should be more accurate to divide it into home dogs, home favs, away dogs and away favs.
Using 75% the bookies would be, um, poorer.

[ahmngrn30]

Anyone know if these are +ev in the long run without any handicapping (just doing them all every week).

[Limpfold]

Just when one thought it was all collected in FAQs, posts and what not...

[TomCowley]

I just posted a kelly-betting analysis in a new thread. If you can read through the formatting, it answers your questions.