PSA/Rant: Asking people what they think of your parlays (somewhat LC)

[ImStillBen]

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Since we're talking about parlays, I want to share my new robusto parlay strategy. I bet 4 team MLB moneyline parlays. Usually I pick slight favorites (but not too high) averaging around -150. These teams are likely to win but still provide for total payout of around +600. Risk something like $5 to win $30. Now I know so far this is all pretty standard basic strategy. My trick is that if I somehow LOSE the parlay, I then immediately DOUBLE MY BET for the next day's parlay. Since parlays allow a big payoff for a small bet, it will take a horribly long string of losses to go busto. Eventually you will hit and win back all your losses plus a profit!

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If this is satire, well done.

If it isn't, terminate this line of thinking immediately.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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ImNew,

Actually no one cares. Half the threads suck. There isn't a whole lot to be said that doesn't directly involve handing someone EV out of your own pocket.

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FYP

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this is why half the threads are parlay picks

very little real info gets shared

if the advice is mainly donkish, the resulting posts will be donkish as well.

[kaboshedx]

Seriously, why even participate in this forum if you're not willing to give any good advice?

[Thremp]

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Seriously, why even participate in this forum if you're not willing to give any good advice?

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Cause you're misled and confused?

[kaboshedx]

i'm mislead and confused to participate in this forum? btw i wasn't referring to you

[Thremp]

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i'm mislead and confused to participate in this forum? btw i wasn't referring to you

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Oh. I didn't mean that as a specific you, but a general you. Sorry for the confusion. People might contribute bad ideas because they don't know they are bad. Most people instead contribute both goot and bad ideas.

[ImNew]

[ QUOTE ]
Since we're talking about parlays, I want to share my new robusto parlay strategy. I bet 4 team MLB moneyline parlays. Usually I pick slight favorites (but not too high) averaging around -150. These teams are likely to win but still provide for total payout of around +600. Risk something like $5 to win $30. Now I know so far this is all pretty standard basic strategy. My trick is that if I somehow LOSE the parlay, I then immediately DOUBLE MY BET for the next day's parlay. Since parlays allow a big payoff for a small bet, it will take a horribly long string of losses to go busto. Eventually you will hit and win back all your losses plus a profit!

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Welcome to the famous Martingale Betting System

[NajdorfDefense]

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[ QUOTE ]
Since we're talking about parlays, I want to share my new robusto parlay strategy. I bet 4 team MLB moneyline parlays. Usually I pick slight favorites (but not too high) averaging around -150. These teams are likely to win but still provide for total payout of around +600. Risk something like $5 to win $30. Now I know so far this is all pretty standard basic strategy. My trick is that if I somehow LOSE the parlay, I then immediately DOUBLE MY BET for the next day's parlay. Since parlays allow a big payoff for a small bet, it will take a horribly long string of losses to go busto. Eventually you will hit and win back all your losses plus a profit!

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Welcome to the famous Martingale Betting System

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Nah, this is worse, real Martingale you never go broke.

[CrushinFelt]

I know the consensus is that parlays are on average -EV. But I have yet to read a definitive article as to why. Can someone point me in the right direction?

Also, I know a lot of the talk has to do with the correlation of the two plays. But if you feel you have an edge on two unrelated games (ie. WhiteSox vs Oakland and Royals vs. Toronto), then what is it about parlaying them that makes it -EV?

[Performify]

Couple comments:

1) I generally agree with what you're saying, homer

2) I think having one good "donk parlay" thread for everyone to post and sweat parlays was a good idea. I wouldn't mind seeing that come back, although I figured if there was demand for it someone would start it up again. Maybe I'll force that with a policy change for the forum and start an official each week and lock threads otherwise.

3) the "taking EV out of your own pocket" comment is highly exaggerated. I've yet to hear a compelling case for someone losing EV by posting a game they've handicapped after they've placed as much action as they want on the game.

You can actually create EV if you're actually good, by people piling on and later shifting the line. I was able to watch this in action on numerous weeks of MMA picks when pinnacle was around (now that its not, there's not enough volatility to move the lines as much imo). If one wanted to do so, an established capper with a winning record and a big enough following could create their own arbitrage opportunities simply by posting their picks. I would postulate that this artificial EV created by the following well outweighs any theoretical -EV which would occur from someone 'reverse engineering' your betting scheme.

I can agree with very limited scenarios where the betting scheme doesn't need your capping involvement. I.e. the over-publicizing of the value of wong teasers makes the market harder to beat and forces the books to evolve, which definitely takes +EV out of the pockets of those involved. Same deal with other very simple winning subsets which are easy for anyone to identify on their own. But other than those specific cases, someone who actually handicaps games / matches / whatever has zero to lose by posting picks (after they've locked in their action) and I'd really enjoy a debate with anyone who thinks otherwise...