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#21
02-04-2007, 04:43 PM
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Re: More SB Props
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I still see it for +115. Why is this an amazing bet? [/ QUOTE ] Cause you can arb it for 25c right now at sharper books. [/ QUOTE ] Good enough for me. I was just wondering if anyone had the relevant statistics on total FGs (or total FGs in a super bowl.) I guess that's what I get for being lazy. 
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#22
02-04-2007, 04:59 PM
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Re: More SB Props
[ QUOTE ]
If, according to Yao, the 'real odds' are -311, you should be taking this up to -300, shouldn't you? [/ QUOTE ] no, I think value is roughly -270. I'd take it less than that, plus I need some margin for profit as well as margin for error. So -240 was the level I was willing to bet it. I was lucky as I was able to find -200 earlier this week.
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#23
02-04-2007, 05:06 PM
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Re: More SB Props
Can you explain your adjustment from -311 to -270, or is that the Yao 'secret sauce?' [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I'm curious about how you arrive at that adjustment.
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#24
02-04-2007, 05:14 PM
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Re: More SB Props
no secret sauce, sorry [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-270 is for games with totals of 44 or higher (actually, I should have written -267). It's a nice sample size of 796 games I have in regular season & playoffs. instead of reposting, please see this: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1 Clearly, you and I think differently. I used the 37 small sample sized games for IND & CHI this year as a 'check' against the bigger sample size data (almost 800 games). If the number was very far different for the IND & CHI games this year, then I'd have to think twice. But it's about the same as the bigger population set, thus I'm comfortable making the wager.
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#25
02-04-2007, 05:28 PM
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Re: More SB Props
I'm hoping to get -210 at Bodog by kickoff.
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#26
02-04-2007, 05:28 PM
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Re: More SB Props
thoughts on this prop?
longest kickoff return in game, colts +170 (bears at -210) at the greek. the (1) colts return guy and (2) bears return guys all average 23-24 yards per return, outside of devin hester's two touchdown returns. seems off. actually i can only get +160 on this at bodog since i'm allin at olympic. still considering playing it though.
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#27
02-04-2007, 05:32 PM
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Re: More SB Props
I love Wilkins at that number.
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#28
02-04-2007, 06:00 PM
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Re: More SB Props
[ QUOTE ]
I still see it for +115. Why is this an amazing bet? [/ QUOTE ] Also, UNDER 3.5 FG +115 is a break even bet if you set the mean at 3.83. I figured it to be much lower and didn't arb, just bet. also: UNDER 3 1/2 sacks +115 UNDER 4 Anthony McFarland Tackle+Sack+Int -145 OVER 2 1/2 INT +120 NO TD Harrison +110 NO TD Clark -165
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#29
02-04-2007, 06:28 PM
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Re: More SB Props
No TD Clark -165
Yes TD Clark +180 vip
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#30
02-04-2007, 06:29 PM
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Re: More SB Props
dallas clark's 1st catch OVER 9.5 yards...
looks good.. also, i just wanted to say how much fun it is betting a million props on this game...bodog recently moved it's minimum bet from 5 down to 1, and i think i have about 10 one-dollar bets, along with a couple others... freeney o/3.5 tackles, sacks, int's harrison o/80.5 receiving yards urlacher o/9.5 tackles, sacks, int's etc, etc.. good times..
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