Getting bad pot odds w/AKs

Sherman · #1 09-23-2006, 01:54 PM

I haven't done a lot at this table and villain just got here 11 hands ago. He has only played a couple of hands, but hasn't shown anything down yet.

I made my standard 3xBB+1 for the limper raise w/AKs. The villain thinks for a bit, not quite going into the timer, and pushes A/I.
His re-raise gave me terrible pot odds on a call. However, I still figured his range (while using my time bank) to be 88+, AQs+ (although I can't say why).

Afterwards, I thought about some other possible ranges for the villain. (QQ+,AQs+ and QQ+,AK+). I ran them all though PokerStove and got these results:

88+,AQs+ = 45.24% (equity)
QQ+,AQs+ = 43.27% (equity)
QQ+,AK+ = 41.10% (equity)

So against all of these ranges I am getting terrible pot odds. It costs me 6953 to win 10103. So is this an easy fold? Is there something I am missing here?

Party $11 - About 120 left out of 440 runners. ITM at 60.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t11570)
MP3 (t2502)
CO (t8153)
Button (t41871)
SB (t5915)
BB (t3125)
UTG (t4710)
UTG+1 (t12498)
MP1 (t10848)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls t300, Hero raises to t1200, 1 fold, CO calls [t8153] , 3 folds, MP1 folds, Hero...

roo400 · #2 09-23-2006, 01:57 PM

gambool time

woodguy · #3 09-23-2006, 02:10 PM

So are are getting 1.45-1 pot odds (10103/6953).

If you have 45% equity then you are 1.22-1 to win.

(I get 50% equity on stove w/ AKs vs. 88+, AQ+, but I'll use 45 here because that's what you used)

Because you are getting better pot odds than your odds to win, you call because the difference is your overlay or edge.

1.45 > 1.22 = woohoo get it in there.

You compare the price you are getting, vs. your odds to win. When you are getting a better price than odds then get it in there.

For example, a coin flip is always 50% if someone offers you better than 1:1 you have an edge and should bet as much as you comfortably can.

I noticed a post in another thread that said someone was only 2-1 to win getting even money and it wasn't enough of an edge......that's a HUGE edge and should never be refused.

Your edge here is a little thinner, but I still take this one all day long.

Regards,
Woodguy

Sherman · #4 09-23-2006, 02:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So are are getting 1.45-1 pot odds (10103/6953).

If you have 45% equity then you are 1.22-1 to win.

(I get 50% equity on stove w/ AKs vs. 88+, AQ+, but I'll use 45 here because that's what you used)

Because you are getting better pot odds than your odds to win, you call because the difference is your overlay or edge.

1.45 > 1.22 = woohoo get it in there.

You compare the price you are getting, vs. your odds to win. When you are getting a better price than odds then get it in there.

For example, a coin flip is always 50% if someone offers you better than 1:1 you have an edge and should bet as much as you comfortably can.

I noticed a post in another thread that said someone was only 2-1 to win getting even money and it wasn't enough of an edge......that's a HUGE edge and should never be refused.

Your edge here is a little thinner, but I still take this one all day long.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay whew! I thought I made a terrible play in post hand analysis after I called here (of course I lost to 88 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). So I must be doing my analysis wrong.

I figured if I lost, I lost 6953. If I won, I won 10103. Should it actually be figured, if I lost I lost 6953 and if I won, I gained (6953+10103) 17056. If I put this number into my program I get a clear call. Is this analysis right.

BTW - I used AQs in my analysis and not AQo b/c I wanted to discount AQ a little bit.

oyvindgee · #5 09-23-2006, 03:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So are are getting 1.45-1 pot odds (10103/6953).

If you have 45% equity then you are 1.22-1 to win.

(I get 50% equity on stove w/ AKs vs. 88+, AQ+, but I'll use 45 here because that's what you used)

Because you are getting better pot odds than your odds to win, you call because the difference is your overlay or edge.

1.45 > 1.22 = woohoo get it in there.

You compare the price you are getting, vs. your odds to win. When you are getting a better price than odds then get it in there.

For example, a coin flip is always 50% if someone offers you better than 1:1 you have an edge and should bet as much as you comfortably can.

I noticed a post in another thread that said someone was only 2-1 to win getting even money and it wasn't enough of an edge......that's a HUGE edge and should never be refused.

Your edge here is a little thinner, but I still take this one all day long.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay whew! I thought I made a terrible play in post hand analysis after I called here (of course I lost to 88 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). So I must be doing my analysis wrong.

I figured if I lost, I lost 6953. If I won, I won 10103. Should it actually be figured, if I lost I lost 6953 and if I won, I gained (6953+10103) 17056. If I put this number into my program I get a clear call. Is this analysis right.

BTW - I used AQs in my analysis and not AQo b/c I wanted to discount AQ a little bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

No the maths are: pot before call/amount to call(10103/6953). If this is a larger number than your opponents equity/your equity(55/45 or whatever) then you have a call. The last part involves some guessing of course.

Sherman · #6 09-23-2006, 03:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So are are getting 1.45-1 pot odds (10103/6953).

If you have 45% equity then you are 1.22-1 to win.

(I get 50% equity on stove w/ AKs vs. 88+, AQ+, but I'll use 45 here because that's what you used)

Because you are getting better pot odds than your odds to win, you call because the difference is your overlay or edge.

1.45 > 1.22 = woohoo get it in there.

You compare the price you are getting, vs. your odds to win. When you are getting a better price than odds then get it in there.

For example, a coin flip is always 50% if someone offers you better than 1:1 you have an edge and should bet as much as you comfortably can.

I noticed a post in another thread that said someone was only 2-1 to win getting even money and it wasn't enough of an edge......that's a HUGE edge and should never be refused.

Your edge here is a little thinner, but I still take this one all day long.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay whew! I thought I made a terrible play in post hand analysis after I called here (of course I lost to 88 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). So I must be doing my analysis wrong.

I figured if I lost, I lost 6953. If I won, I won 10103. Should it actually be figured, if I lost I lost 6953 and if I won, I gained (6953+10103) 17056. If I put this number into my program I get a clear call. Is this analysis right.

BTW - I used AQs in my analysis and not AQo b/c I wanted to discount AQ a little bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

No the maths are: pot before call/amount to call(10103/6953). If this is a larger number than your opponents equity/your equity(55/45 or whatever) then you have a call. The last part involves some guessing of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, what if I want to compute my total equity against his range? What is the equity in terms of cEV of a call here?