Playing Too Tight??

[Magisastar]

Maybe raise is better, but limping is fine. I would still call for 2 more bets in a large pot. You have good strategic advantage post flop. And if you hit your set, you will make plenty. Or make a quick fold if you don't.

[zipppy]

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I think that folding this preflop is horrible IMO.

Its ~ 5:1 presently on your call. Its very reasonable that you can expect to collect at least 4 BB after the flop if you hit your set, making it a +EV situation.

Your opponents are not going to fold an overpair on the flop in a 4-8 game. Its also likely that they'll get a least 1 raise in there, especially if the flop is non-threatening ( ie.Q92, or K94).

This is a hand where you could collect a big pot if you hit, as you put your opponents on big hands and they're likely to get to the river on alot of boards.

There is more than enough implied odds to call here. The chance that it will be capped behind you, it reduces your odds to almost 4:1, which is still +EV.

for this not to be +EV, both your opponents would have to fold on the turn, and if that is the case, you should be happy to call and bluff them off their overpair.

mark

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one issue I take with this analysis is that you are ignoring the times you hit a set and still lose. while this happens very infrequently, when it does happen you lose a lot of chips.

in your last paragraph you justify playing this hand in a situation where it is -EV. this is a sign that you are trying too hard to justify playing this hand. I'm not saying it's -EV to play this hand, i'm just saying you don't always have implied odds just because you have a pocket pair.

zip

[Grease]

First off, I raise when it gets to me. If a solid player didn't raise a loose limper to iso, then he must have pretty crappy cards and should be punished for limping (figuratively speaking). He most likely has a smaller PP, small suited connectors, or a suited ace. You dominate all of these holdings.

If she's "solid" she could be 3-betting here with AK or AQs, but if she's solid in the sense she's a rock, then meh, it's ok. I would still probably call since our implied odds are huge to flop a set. Also, if you call, the guy behind you might as well, which further increases your odds.

Also, her husband sucks. If he's going to raise and then fold for one more preflop, he is probably terrible or a rock or both.

[Hamlet]

This is an important point. I don't think the fold is bad. I think it is pretty close. Your pot odds may get reduced if the original raiser caps. You can flop a set and still lose.

I think its a close decision that can be played either way. I like to call, because I prefer to play the close decisions (and some of the non-close ones [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), because playing is more interesting than folding.

I don't think you're leaving anything significant on the table folding in this situation, though.


[ QUOTE ]
one issue I take with this analysis is that you are ignoring the times you hit a set and still lose. while this happens very infrequently, when it does happen you lose a lot of chips.

in your last paragraph you justify playing this hand in a situation where it is -EV. this is a sign that you are trying too hard to justify playing this hand. I'm not saying it's -EV to play this hand, i'm just saying you don't always have implied odds just because you have a pocket pair.


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[Hamlet]

You misread the hand. The husband limped and then folded to 2 more bets.

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Also, her husband sucks. If he's going to raise and then fold for one more preflop, he is probably terrible or a rock or both.

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[fesedu]

Her husband was on my right and he was one of 2 limpers ahead of me. He and the other limper both folded to the three bet. As I did.

I am grateful for the advice. It's making me re-hit the books (SSHE).

[SNOWBALL]

it's not a great idea to tell people what you folded.

[SNOWBALL]

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Raise preflop. You should have seen the flop. The only way that you shouldn't see the flop with 99 is if it's three cold to you

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I muck 99 all the time vs solid openraisers.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

513,691,200 games 0.031 secs 16,570,683,870 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.910% 32.71% 00.20% 168005508 1049562.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 67.090% 66.89% 00.20% 343586568 1049562.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }


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[marrek]

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for this not to be +EV, both your opponents would have to fold on the turn, and if that is the case, you should be happy to call and bluff them off their overpair.

mark

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in your last paragraph you justify playing this hand in a situation where it is -EV. this is a sign that you are trying too hard to justify playing this hand. I'm not saying it's -EV to play this hand, i'm just saying you don't always have implied odds just because you have a pocket pair.

zip

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you don't always HAVE to play a pocket pair. but you're missing my point here. What i'm saying is that in order for this not to be +EV, your oppoents would have to be good enough to fold and overpair when you flop a set, which will never happen at 4-8.

If you ever run into a NIT who folds an overpair in this situation, it agian becomes +EV because you can bluff them out.

marrek

[TheCount212]

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Raise preflop. You should have seen the flop. The only way that you shouldn't see the flop with 99 is if it's three cold to you

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I muck 99 all the time vs solid openraisers.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

513,691,200 games 0.031 secs 16,570,683,870 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.910% 32.71% 00.20% 168005508 1049562.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 67.090% 66.89% 00.20% 343586568 1049562.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }


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[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for posting this. I have read a LOT lately on this board about capping 99. It's really not a great hand. I think the OP made a good fold.

Value is a concept that, IMHO, should be balanced with hand-reading and opponent-reading skills, and basic poker skills like knowing when you're beat. Many posts on here lately have advocated throwing away chips in situations where folding is more prudent.

Value is nice in theory, but sometimes in practice we have to just fold.. lest we turn ourselves into donkeys.

I limp 99 PF all the time so I can see a flop cheaply and reassess on the flop. Since I play 3/6 live I'm not usually folding out anyone by raising anyway. Nines are just way, way too susceptible to overcards.. if we were playing NLHE then sure, by all means raise those 99s PF.