Chasing the Nuts with the Nuts (PLO8 $200

[Omaha8sPoker]

I'll try to remember this as best as I can...I decided to play the $200s last nite and this hand came up...From the BB I get dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...Flop comes...

7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Pot size is roughly $12...I have the villian covered who has about $120-140 in front of him...

I check it to the villian who bets pot...I think and usually I go for a check-raise here, but I've been noticing that this is a RIDICULOUSLY HUGE leak in my game so I just call...

POT: $36

Turn: Blank

I check, villian again pots it and I call

POT: $108

River: Blank

Villian goes all-in and I call...

He shows down A47x or something like that...

I knew the whole way that I was up against A4 and with the huge bet on the turn I knew he had a piece of that board with his A4...The question is, do you call all the way down in this situation or is this just a recipe for handing over a fist full of money??? If this is a laydown, this is still one I have a tough time making becuase the villian has to have exactly A456 for me to be screwed and I am still drawing fairly live if he doesn't...

[bbartlog]

Villain-dependent. Against many players I feel I have to call here, since folding too easily is kind of exploitable. But there are players (mustafa comes to mind) who are serious nut peddlers and if this is one of those types then I think you can fold on either the turn or the river.

[Omaha8sPoker]

Yeah I definitely didn't have enough of a read to even think about folding this hand on any street as I had the nut naked low and he could have had the naked 56 with those bets (it was either the 56 or the A4 with a piece)...

[Mendacious]

Wow, I miss Ribbo.

This is complicated a lot because of the fact that your low can be counterfitted. But putting that aside, this would CLEARLY bea situation where you want to get the money in on the flop.

A few things to consider, 1) Unless you are 100% sure your opponent has A4 and a piece of the flop, you have some fold equity. 2) You can reasonably expect that you have as many as 13 outs (x2) and that the three of the 5's are neutral, so you can take them out of the deck. To my way of thinking there are 42 cards that will decide the high, and your opponent needs to avoid 13 of these cards TWICE. So, in most situations you are WELL ahead, (like 62/38).

Even allowing for some really problematic holdings by your opponent, such as A477, A224 or A334, or A45b (where b is a card on the board), the flush outs are still good so you could never be far behind, and obviously this is the minority of holdings for Villian.

This does not even take into account your pot equity, or how -EV it is to play weak/tight.

[Omaha8sPoker]

The weak-tight thing usually isn't my game at all...But I have found in playing that if somebody bets pot like that most of the time the fold equity is hovering around -5%, 0% if you are lucky...

I guess the thing I was worried about was the counterfeited low if my opponent held A45x...I probably shouldn't have been because in all reality that would give him 2 outs to scoop me...

I really almost potted it on the flop, but I thought it might be out of line to do that so I elected just to call...I guess if I was thinking about going all the way with this hand, which I did, there really isn't any reason not to pot it on the flop...I can't see any situation unless one of the last 2 4s in the deck came out that I would ever fold this hand because my draw to the nut flush is still out there and I would have to be up against a very specific hand to be really screwed...

[Mendacious]

The other reason for getting the money in here is that if the club falls on the turn, players can get away from the hand.

This a hand with an edge you have to push. You are leaving money on the table if you do not. Part of the point of having an aggressive image is to get people to shove with you on hands like this.

[Omaha8sPoker]

Yeah I effed this up...If this was one of the other sites that I usually play at I would have pushed, but here I froze like an effing moron and just went into the passive calling mode...

I think it stems from a hand I played 2 days ago where I raised with A4xx (can't remember what the xs were) on the button, nut clubs and the flop came 753, 2 clubs...I bet almost pot and was check raised and I moved the guy all in, caught the 2c on the turn and the river bricked...My opponent slowplayed AA23 and I got lucky to scoop...

But this is an absolutely different situation than that, in that I have the nut low to go along with my nut flush draw...

Even after all the hands I've played I still have effing brainfarts like this which is really piss poor IMO...I should be pretty much on autopilot, but there are still a few situations where hands get me on 2 left feet and I screw up playing them, this is a perfect example...

[rando]

In retrospect, if one of the blanks (especially the turn) was higher than the 7, or coordinated for a straight, what do you think he would estimate as your chance of having drawn out on him for the high? I've been having more luck recently exploiting high scare cards in neck and neck hands like this, if villain reads you on a draw, especially if you're sure of it, look for all the draws he could have you on... like you said it was all going in, so look for the scariest spot to spring to life in these situations.

[TomG]

You are heads-up holding an irregular nut-low (an A4 nut-low will generally be shared less often than more standard A2 and A3 low draws) with a draw to the nut-flush. And you are considering a fold? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Seriously, folding at any point in this hand is terrible. You could check/call down the whole way inducing bluffs. Maybe he won't give you credit for a flush if it hits and you'll get paid that way. Or you could just check/raise the flop and either be happy to get it all-in or be happy to gain some fold equity. Getting quartered happens sometimes. It's a much bigger leak to go out of your way to avoid being quartered than it is to get quartered occasionally.

[Omaha8sPoker]

Tom, I never was considering a fold during the hand although my original post possibly made it sound like that...On the flop I really didn't know where I was at (ie...Didn't know if he had 65, A4 with a pair, A4 with nothing)...On the turn I had narrowed it down to A4 with a pair or 65...

There would be absolutely no way that I was thinking of folding the nut low with the nut draw and overcards if he had what he ended up having (if he did have A456 then so be it)...When the river blanked and he bet all in I was like "^#*$&^&*#", I gotta call...

I guess the point of my post was to see if I was spewing by calling, which I think I was...In that I mean that there is an optimal way to play this hand and I think I missed out on it with a check-raise...

I think the leak in my game is that sometimes I play some hands a little TOO aggressively and I'm trying to get away from doing that, but it sounds like here that I should have been the one being aggressive...