Can you cash in 11 out of 13 SnG's without any skill?

[bocablkr]

Do you think someone can cash in 11 out 13 SnG's solely due to variance, luck, or getting hit in the face by the deck? In other words, without any real skill?

[Prodigy54321]

yes..let anyone play enough games and you'll see strings much longer than that scattered throughout their many games

[Wolfram]

Yes

[Absolution]

I hope so, because I know you can stay out of the money for strings much longer than that even when you're playing well.

:/

[FoxVR6]

Given a big enough sample, anything is possible.

[Absolution]

But how probable is the question. Technically a string of 1000 games in the money is possible, but not probable, whereas a string of 11 out of 13 in the money is possible and fairly probable.

[Prodigy54321]

this post makes me think of when during a basketball game the announcers say something about a 10 to 2 run or someone has made 4 or their last 5 shots...these types of stats are really meaningless.

it's like putting 50 red balls and 50 blue balls in a bucket..taking one ball out at a time and putting them all in a row...when you're done, you'll see strings of the same colored balls...you could separate a string where 11 out of 13 ballsa are blue...but it means nothing about the 50/50 chance that the balls represent

[gumpzilla]

Let's say you have an ITM of 25%; in other words, you're a losing player, though not utterly atrocious. Given any particular run of 13 games, the chancce that you'll cash in 11 of 13 is 78*(.25)^11*(.75)^2, which works out to about .001%. Pretty unlikely. For comparison, if we bump your ITM up to 40%, then there is a .12% that you cash in 11 of 13. Still quite unlikely, but a 40% ITM makes it 100 times more likely.

EDIT: Fixed the numbers I put up before, at least approximately. For even further comparison, let's say you want to win 7 games of 13 instead of 11 of 13. Then for 25% ITM man it's about .5% that he'll cash in 7 of 13, and for 40% ITM man it's about 3.3%. Substantially more likely, and the discrepancy between the good player and the weak player is markedly less, neither of which should be surprising.

[jhfrudd]

Can anyone tell me where the 78 figure comes from in the above equation? I figure it must be something to do with the fact that you can win the 11 games in any order, but its been a long time since math A level.....(I'm from England).

Thanks

James

[jhfrudd]

OK, I just figured it out : 13!/11!*(13-11)! = 78

Thanks anyways, interesting thread OP!

James