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#1
10-23-2007, 09:33 AM
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crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
the title of the thread means that i'll post plays when i have no further use in keeping them secret; i.e. i've hit my wagering limits at the books offering good lines, or ran out of cash to place bets at B&M books.
first one is a freebie: take colorado +195 for game 1 and boston -230 to win the Series. each is +EV on its own IMO, and the combination reduces risk considerably. as i said a few weeks ago about another combo bet, this is a great way to start your gambling hedge fund. i'll be on a plane to vegas in a few hours and hopefully hitting the books shortly after landing, so expect a report tonight on what's out there. 
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#2
10-23-2007, 11:27 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
Sox -227 at SIA, $550 max. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#4
10-23-2007, 12:50 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
SIA is the only poorly-rated [formerly B-rated] book I have money left at. You should avoid SB like the plague.
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#5
10-23-2007, 01:19 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
FWIW, you can get +195 at 5Dimes and -230 at Bodog. I'm sure there are other places with similar/better prices, but for anyone too lazy to look...
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#6
10-23-2007, 01:21 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
Does anyone have a recommendation for how to allocate a given portion of their bankroll over these two bets? (i.e., you want to bet $X total, put Z%*X on Colorado to win game 1 and (100%-Z%)*X on Boston winning the series).
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#9
10-23-2007, 02:18 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
crockpot,
What are your estimated game lines for this series? King Yao has given his guesstimates as Game 1 66.0%, Game 2 63.0%, Game 3 54.0%, Game 4 50.0%, Game 5 58.0%, Game 6 63.0%, and Game 7 62.0%. These equate to a 70% series win for BOS, which is close to the observed market price. Your odds seem to be giving BOS a lower probability of winning Game 1 but a higher probability of winning Game 4. I'm curious where else you differ to get a higher series win percentage for BOS.
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#10
10-23-2007, 02:20 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
[ QUOTE ]
Colorado +200 on Matchbook. Comes out to +196 after the fee. [/ QUOTE ] It's actually better than that because Matchbook has reduced all commissions to 1% for baseball this post-season.
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