1/2: QK makes trips

[Ryanj37]

<font color="blue">Villian is unknown </font>

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $45
Hero (SB): $195
BB: $66.85
UTG: $782.90
UTG+1: $332.65
MP1: $198
MP2: $192
CO: $258.70

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls $3, BB calls $2

Flop: ($12) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls $12

Turn: ($36) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $28</font>, MP1 calls $28

River: ($92) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $48</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $154 and is All-In</font>, Hero folds

Results: $188 Pot ($3 Rake)
MP1 mucked and WON $185 (+$93 NET)


Thoughts on river b/f. Surely he never raises a hand that we beat and we want value from AA KK QT. Hows my thinking here?

[Split Suit]

im an idiot, and didnt see it was a minraise.

line looks fine up to river...i think i c/c instead. our hand seems like a 2streets of betting value (our own), and we already did 2. i think enough bluff/bets the river for us to b +EV c/c

[Ryanj37]

Preflop is only a minraise so i think the call is fine.

My reasoning for the flop donk is twofold: I charge draws and can possibly rep a draw and get raised.

[Split Suit]

fixxed my post. my dumbass thought it was 100NL

[AllTheCheese]

I'm pretty sure lead lead lead is correct here. Gives you a chance to three-street AA. On the river, I know this assh*le made Jacks full but idk if I can fold with half my stack in the middle.

[nation]

c/c river

[AllTheCheese]

Why are we c/cing river? We totally miss value from all AA/KK/TT combos and gain no extra value from weaker Queens. I don't think he shows up with missed spades here unless he's bad. He did call two PSBs on a paired board afterall. He never has air here either. So where is the value in c/cing other than that it makes our decision process easier?

[Smart Money]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we c/cing river? We totally miss value from all AA/KK/TT combos and gain no extra value from weaker Queens. I don't think he shows up with missed spades here unless he's bad. He did call two PSBs on a paired board afterall. He never has air here either. So where is the value in c/cing other than that it makes our decision process easier?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the weighted extra value (i.e. taking into account the likelihood of each holding) we would gain Vs AA/KK/TT is less than the expense we incur Vs a better hand [that will most likely raise us] + the value from an induced missed fush bluff.

Also, there are no weaker queens. Virtually all other queens beat us.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why are we c/cing river? We totally miss value from all AA/KK/TT combos and gain no extra value from weaker Queens. I don't think he shows up with missed spades here unless he's bad. He did call two PSBs on a paired board afterall. He never has air here either. So where is the value in c/cing other than that it makes our decision process easier?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the weighted extra value (i.e. taking into account the likelihood of each holding) we would gain Vs AA/KK/TT is less than the expense we incur Vs a better hand [that will most likely raise us] + the value from an induced missed fush bluff.

Also, there are no weaker queens. Virtually all other queens beat us.

[/ QUOTE ]

its a preflop minraise, it could be QT, Q9

it looks like the guy hit JJ honestly

[Smart Money]

It could be 72 offsuit too, but I doubt it.

I think AQ/QJ are significantly more likely here than QT and less.