Fold this AK PF?

[RichC.]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t4996)
Hero (t13424)
MP1 (t13458)
MP2 (t5454)
MP3 (t6765)
CO (t13135)
Button (t5367)
SB (t12195)
BB (t9279)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1850</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t5450</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero ???

Reads: I had been a bit more active but had solid to premium hands each time since villian was moved to the table.

Villian had also shown down strong hands. Looked afterward to see he was in top 30 on TLB for year, still early i know.

Not quite near the money either. Stars $20, 10k gtd.

[beenben]

You're most likely against a pair. Your M was about 11 when you started the hand. If you fold, it's down to 9 and you're going to be in push-fold mode and you might not pick up a hand better than AK before you need to push. there is always the chance that this could be a re-steal with air or a weaker ace or a suited connector.

so I would call. 2nd choice fold. all-in re-raise is bad b/c only better hands are going to call you. call and go is bad b/c you're pot committed by the call.

contradicted myself there - said to call and go and that call and go was bad. all in.

[J.A.K.]

All in and its not close; you are precisely behind 2 hands. You have beeen active. End of discussion

[Lloyd]

You're both among the big stacks and unless you've been nuts and/or he's been re-stealing you're behind his range, right. I guess he could have AQ but that's the only hand you should be ahead of. Getting 2.3 to 1 odds. You're 2 to 1 to make a pair. If he has AA/KK and you make a pair, you're obviously getting stacked. If he has a smaller pair I don't think you get paid off. Without spending time cranking out the math this feels like an -EV call.

You have folding equity pre-flop but I'm pretty sure you're a slight dog - maybe 40/60. Does he fold JJ/TT here? If so then a push is likely +EV but not hugely.

So, I do think this is a time where AK can be folded.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
Your M was about 11 when you started the hand. If you fold, it's down to 9 and you're going to be in push-fold mode

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been seeing this too much recently. Why all of a sudden are you in push-fold mode with an M of 9? People seem to confuse the "guideline" of pushing with 10 BBs or less with an M of 10 or less. You still have lots of play with an M of 10. You can certainly do more than just push or fold.

[J.A.K.]

[ QUOTE ]
You're both among the big stacks and unless you've been nuts and/or he's been re-stealing you're behind his range, right. I guess he could have AQ but that's the only hand you should be ahead of. Getting 2.3 to 1 odds. You're 2 to 1 to make a pair. If he has AA/KK and you make a pair, you're obviously getting stacked. If he has a smaller pair I don't think you get paid off. Without spending time cranking out the math this feels like an -EV call. You have folding equity pre-flop but I'm pretty sure you're a slight dog - maybe 40/60. Does he fold JJ/TT here? If so then a push is likely +EV but not hugely.

So, I do think this is a time where AK can be folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Loyd,
hero has been active and his hand is now disguised against a thinking player.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
All in and its not close; you are precisely behind 2 hands. You have beeen active. End of discussion

[/ QUOTE ]
He is precisely behind every single pair.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
Reads: I had been a bit more active but had solid to premium hands each time since villian was moved to the table.

Villian had also shown down strong hands. Looked afterward to see he was in top 30 on TLB for year, still early i know.

[/ QUOTE ]

[J.A.K.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All in and its not close; you are precisely behind 2 hands. You have beeen active. End of discussion

[/ QUOTE ]
He is precisely behind every single pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

At this point are you worrying about 22?

[Lloyd]

No. But you said he's precisely behind 2 hands and that's not accurate. He's behind every single pair. And while there's overlay because of the dead money the stacks seem deep enough that the odds he's getting if he pushes certainly don't make it a clearly +EV decision. It wouldn't be horrible, but it's not clear cut.