Day Trader - money potential vs prep time compared to poker

[whyherro]

BTW - for those referencing day trading coaches and websites, etc. Chances are these guys are a crock. Good ideas in the market don't last for long, anyone smart enough to come up with enough of them and capitalize to a significant extent sure as hell isn't going to create a website teaching people how to trade.

[pig4bill]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW - for those referencing day trading coaches and websites, etc. Chances are these guys are a crock. Good ideas in the market don't last for long, anyone smart enough to come up with enough of them and capitalize to a significant extent sure as hell isn't going to create a website teaching people how to trade.

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And this opinion is based on what? You've tried all of them and nobody you've talked to received any value from them? Or are you just guessing?

There are many reasons someone may run a pay site. For one thing, it's very profitable. It's not unusual to find a site with 500 members paying $200 each. That's grossing $100k a month with no market risk. There are also people that are good stockpickers but have trouble pulling the trigger on a stock when they should. A psychological block when trading is common. One gal in our group used to make picks and send them to us every morning. Her track record was very good, but she couldn't make the trades. She also had health problems that made watching the market all day difficult. I encouraged her to start a pay newsletter, because she was a good writer as well, even though she had trouble dealing with people in person. A pay newsletter is a perfect vehicle for someone like that but she never followed through.

As for whether $200k a year daytrading is possible, it certainly is, although it would be easier to accomplish if you were a winning swing trader. Swing trading is more difficult though. For example, one guy in our group had a stated goal of making 5 points a day. He often got up to 10 points and then forced himself to quit for the day in order not to donk it back. 4 points a day times a thousand shares is $1 million a year.

It's funny how so many people on this site who have never done a certain thing are experts on it.

[whyherro]

Based on knowing many traders and working in the industry.

Don't underestimate biases in reporting. Saying you know someone who made good stock picks really means absolutely nothing to me.

[whyherro]

BTW - I don't think its stupid at all for someone to start one of these pay subscription programs assuming they get that many members. I just, frankly, don't think the information is worth very much and that the people starting them probably aren't profitable traders themselves.

[Borknagar]

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It's funny how so many people on this site who have never done a certain thing are experts on it.

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This is true. It's also very weird because poker players have to defend themselves all the time from other people who say that poker is rigged, impossible to beat, can't learn anything from pokerbooks etc. etc. etc.

[pig4bill]

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Based on knowing many traders and working in the industry.

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There's your problem. The "industry" wants you to think that nobody but them can make good stock picks. Otherwise people would just open ETrade accounts and make their own trades and Golden Sack and Merrill Leech would take big earnings hits.

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Don't underestimate biases in reporting.

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Reporting? I know these courses and services because I've subscribed to them and met trading buddies through them that benefitted immensely from them.

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Saying you know someone who made good stock picks really means absolutely nothing to me.

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I couldn't care less what it means to YOU. The OP asked about them and I responded. Besides, you missed the point completely. The point is that there are many reasons someone might sell stock picks when they can trade them themselves.

[ QUOTE ]
BTW - I don't think its stupid at all for someone to start one of these pay subscription programs assuming they get that many members. I just, frankly, don't think the information is worth very much and that the people starting them probably aren't profitable traders themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, based on what? All the trading services you've subscribed to? I've subscribed to a few, and you are WRONG.

[WiltOnTilt]

Guys, thanks for everyones opinions on this stuff. I appreciate it a lot.

whyhero - The reason I brought up the 200k figure is that's where I'm at with poker right now. I feel pretty successful at poker but certainly i'm no sbrugby or other big name. I was/am trying to get some sort of feel as to how hard/time consuming it would be for me to do the same with trading. Mostly I'd like to have more options in my life for an income stream besides poker and working for the man in a cubicle (ie going back to my programmer background). Mostly my goal is to never work for someone else again, but I realize that poker may not always interest me and the variance at say 5/10nl short handed can be pretty sick. (i know, probably 6 of one half dozen of another switching poker variance for swing trading variance)

All-
Let's say I'm interested in seriously pursuing swing trading. What should be my first steps to start moving in the right direction? I have the personality that when I want to get something accomplished I go out and do it. That's how I was with poker, programming, and most other things in my life.

I know enough to know that I don't know anything, if that makes sense. I have time to commit to this but I don't want to waste the time I have in the wrong areas. Is there a particular book/website/coaching avenue you suggest? Is there another method?

If I got to the point where I had a more fundamental knowledge of swing trading I'd be willing to swap coaching services with one of you experts at swing trading (if anyone would be interested in NLHE coaching)... right now I have 3 consistent NLHE students through 3-bet.net where I'm one of the coaches.

KoW

[JJay1231]

you may want to check out these swing trading resources;

"Tools and tactics for the master day trader" by Oliver Velez (yes its a swing trading book)

"Swing Trading" by Dave Landry

and an excellent free site http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/ to get started

also you may want to check out http://www.mrswing.com/

personally I use my own swing trading method (and you will need to come up with your own in time)

[mrbaseball]

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Let's say I'm interested in seriously pursuing swing trading. What should be my first steps to start moving in the right direction?

[/ QUOTE ]

Read. Trading ideas are easy but actually implementing them are the hard part. With your poker background you know all about variance and that's a great place to start from. I would suggest the books of Mark Douglass and another great one is The Way of the Turtle by Curtis Faith. Trading is more mental than anything else. There is no "holy grail", there is no magic system. Experience is very important. It's one thing to look at a chart and say you shoulda done this and that and this. But when it's actually happening and you are over there with the far righthand side bar ticking it makes a world of difference. This is where experience and the right mindset really seperate the winners from the losers.

[missmisery]

UrmaBlume:

Would you mind starting a thread where you wou'd answer questions regarding your automatic trading software?? (or can I ask some questions via PM?)

I find it quite interesting.. I've got a master degree in AI and I have pretty good knowledge of different learning methods. I also have a few years of programming experience even though it is not my strength.. Furthermore, I absolutely LOVE trading & learning about the market so building my own trading application might be an interesting option.

I'm particularly interested to know the efforts you have put into it? Did you start from scratch or integrated AI components in an existing trading platform? And if it is not too indiscreet, is it possible to have a rough idea of how well your software performs?