Live AK TPTK raised multi-way pot

[iStackBooks]

1/2 at Green Valley Resort Casino. I've been playing all night, and probably have the best image at the table. Earlier in the night I had started at another table, dominated it, and built my stack up to around $500 before it got broken up. I moved to a new table with about half of the players, all of which were participating in the following hand.

I have around $330 behind, the game is 6-handed, there is 1 limper, and I pick up AK in the cutoff. I raise to $12, the button calls, sb calls, bb calls, and limper calls. I have playing with these players all night and have pretty good reads on them:

limper: solid regular

button: tourist who is on one of the sickest runs I have seen in a while. He overvalues top pair, calling big bets/betting big himself with TP on 3 flush, straight coordinated, paired boards... and somehow winning. He often bets his draws. Called a guy down to the river with AK, no pair, and seriously considered calling his $130 all in until the guy told him to save his money and showed QQ. Ran a really awkward bluff against me and got me to lay down the winner.

Small blind: loose asian guy who overvalues TP and is happy got stack off with a draw

Big blind: solid player but not terribly tricky and probably not capable of making too many good plays. Overvalues pp's preflop... I saw him reraise to $50 in MP with 33 to an EP raiser.

Anyway, back to the hand. The flop comes K98 with 2 hearts. Sb checks, the bb bets $15 into around $60, limper folds, and action is to me. Against a skilled player, I might be worried that he was trying to bait me into raising with a huge hand (88 or 99). With this guy I was nearly positive that he was either trying to buy a cheap card with a draw or probing with a decent hand (TP weak kicker, maybe middle pair). A lot of this has to do with the fact that I would expect him to repop me with either 88 or 99 (and definately KK).

Before we go any further, is a raise here 100% standard? There is $75 in the pot, I have around $320, and I have the button and sb left to act behind me. Every stack is $200+ with the button having me well covered. Assuming that we are raising.. .how much?

[warrantofice]

Hmmm... I think a raise here of $70-90 would be good. I think with your hand you really want to find out were you are in this hand. Because its the bb you will have position on him for the rest of the hand. If he pushes than you can most likely fold, if he calls, than i would likely check the turn, trying to get to a cheap show down. There will be many scare cards though, so you could possibly just flat call his raise here. You'll will likely be worried about any heart, any Q, 8, 9, 7.

So, I would say, put a big bet in, try to take down the pot there. If you get reraised you can probably fold. If called check the turn and re-evalute on the river.

What if the SB reraises, depends on how much money he's got, but you'll probably be getting pretty good odds to go with the hand all the way. Not my favorite to run off my whole stack with AK but against a loose player, its not a terrible spot.

[iStackBooks]

Okay...

I raised to exactly $90. So now there is like $165 in the pot, and I have $230 behind. Here's where it gets sick. The button goes all in (has me covered), the sb folds, the bb (who led for $15) folds, and the action is to me.

The math is something like this - $230 to win $485. Refer to my comments on the button. We are getting a little over 2-1. Thoughts?

[justscott]

Do you atleast have the Ace of hearts?

[iStackBooks]

No.

Was I right in thinking that this is very, very borderline? I had a really hard time figuring out his range. I think this is one of the hardest things to figure in a live game - is a tourist/casual player capable of making this play with draws and combo draws? Does he love TP enough to make this play with KQ, KJ, or maybe even K10? Do we have to take this bet at face value and put him on 88, 99, K9, or 89?

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]
Does he love TP enough to make this play with KQ, KJ, or maybe even K10? Do we have to take this bet at face value and put him on 88, 99, K9, or 89?

[/ QUOTE ]

KQ was my first thought but the bad players normaly call it down ("bad players´ own standard" mode).
Your "best image" at the table - what is it like? Did he see you fold a lot? If so, he might be in "bad player after Holdem on TV" mode. This includes crazy bluffs. Oh yes, he ran a bluff before, right?

Tough spot indeed.

[WantToLearn]

But after all, there was a bet AND a raise before he acted, so if you want to give him any respect at all, this may be the time to do it.

[iStackBooks]

Basically he got me to make a really bad fold (AQ on A66 board... he showed 77). We played at a previous table together. I played very aggressive, with few show downs, and raked in a lot of big pots. The few times I did show a hand down it was pretty strong. At the new table, I hadn't been very active but he probably considered me the best player because of the history at the previous table.

I played a few hands with him where he got me to fold. I usually had nothing but he had no way of knowing this. A few hands before this, i flopped TP from the sb on a Kxx flop. I bet 15, he raised to 40, and I folded. After the hand I asked him if a King was good he said "No, nice lay down... I had AQ" when I pointed out to him that the board was Kxx he goes "Oh I mean I had AK"... so I was about 99.9% sure that he was bluffing there as well.

Also worth noting is that the overwhelming majority of his raises all night were min raises. The 15-40 hand and this all in are really the only times that I could recall him raising more than the minimum. I wasn't really sure what to apply that to my decision making process in this hand, however.

One more thing - he lost close to $200 a few hands before this. It was the hand I described where he called down with A hi and almost called a big all in on the river until his opponent showed QQ. So maybe he is tilting? Who knows. In previous hands he was raising with top pair weak kicker on very scary boards, and refusing to give up even when scare cards hit.

How much do the pot odds influence our decision here? What is the breaking point above 2-1 that makes this an insta-call?

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]

How much do the pot odds influence our decision here? What is the breaking point above 2-1 that makes this an insta-call?

[/ QUOTE ]

We are never going to know for sure before we see a result.
To keep it simple, let´s assume he either has us beat now and will win the hand, or we have him beat now and we will win the hand.
Now estimate how many % of the time he is bluffing. Then estimate how many % of the time he is betting a weaker made hand like that. Now add the numbers - this is how often we win. Now compare to pot odds.

We have hints that make us lean us towards assuming a bluff as well as hints that make us lean towards a real hand.

I daresay it will remain a close tie whatever we figure out. That means, neither way can be that wrong, regardless of the actual result. Don´t forget to post it later though! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[warrantofice]

I bet he looses to 2 pair