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#11
09-02-2007, 04:26 AM
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Re: $200 Caesar\'s 12 pm JJ hand vs. tourist
[ QUOTE ]
So then it becomes a question of; Am I such a good player that I can lay down what is probably the best hand because I will have a better opportunites later? [/ QUOTE ] No one in this forum, or in high-stakes is even close to being "good enough" to pass any edge, IMO. 
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#12
09-02-2007, 04:37 AM
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Re: $200 Caesar\'s 12 pm JJ hand vs. tourist
First of all, I did assign a range. Any Q, any 10, any flush draw, any straight draw. Villain will obviously call with any 10. He has a huge stack, is fully committed to the pot, and doesn't know how to fold "two pair" here. Thinking that he will fold a 10 is borderline retarded. Maybe he folds underpairs but probably not. If he is check raising with an underpair he thinks it is strong.
Now I really don't understand the next part of your argument. Assuming that he has a draw, a shove is bad (we will be paying him off when it hits)?? Certainly any hand that is beating us will call. But many hands that we are beating are also coming along. You are missing the point - a draw is a hand that we are beating!
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#13
09-02-2007, 05:12 AM
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Re: $200 Caesar\'s 12 pm JJ hand vs. tourist
[ QUOTE ]
First of all, I did assign a range. Any Q, any 10, any flush draw, any straight draw. Villain will obviously call with any 10. He has a huge stack, is fully committed to the pot, and doesn't know how to fold "two pair" here. Thinking that he will fold a 10 is borderline retarded. Maybe he folds underpairs but probably not. If he is check raising with an underpair he thinks it is strong. Now I really don't understand the next part of your argument. Assuming that he has a draw, a shove is bad (we will be paying him off when it hits)?? Certainly any hand that is beating us will call. But many hands that we are beating are also coming along. You are missing the point - a draw is a hand that we are beating! [/ QUOTE ] He's committed 3400 chips (from a "big stack")...so he's pot committed here? Another thing about your shove, is you're laying him 3 to 1...so shoving doesn't charge draws here...it gives them sick odds to call. Obv, if he's calling with all his 10's then shoving is prob good...all i'm saying is calling the raise puts him in a tough spot on the turn when he's behind (while shoving lets him play perfectly), cause most tourists won't shove their draws on the turn. FWIW, i'm not folding many turns, after i call his raise. You still haven't addressed my question regarding your flop lead...if you're plan was to lead weak to 3-bet allin....then say so.
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#16
09-02-2007, 05:29 AM
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Re: $200 Caesar\'s 12 pm JJ hand vs. tourist
[ QUOTE ]
i would check to him and let him try to bet. Then CR his a$$ all in and watch him muck. If he checks behind 3/4 pot on any turn card other than K T [/ QUOTE ] You've got the action backwards...hero is MP (last to act); villain is SB (1st to act.)
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#17
09-02-2007, 10:35 PM
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Re: $200 Caesar\'s 12 pm JJ hand vs. tourist
He can't have Ac10c. The only drawing hands that are beating us are Jc9c and KcJc and it is very, very close. I will admit, my flop bet was a little small. I guess this is just a result of playing mostly online and having the pot size right in front of me. Is this really that important though? If we bet 500 more chips I don't think the discussion here is much different.
I think it's laughable to suggest that any player, even a inexperienced tourist, is going to fold a 10 here after the check raise. There is 5,000 in the pot, I have 6,000 left. He only has to call 4,000 more to win 11,000 and he is sitting on around 20,000 chips. No way he is folding - ever. This hand is really about the structure of tournament's like this more than anything. If this is the main event, and I'm sitting with 200 bb's, of course I can get away from the hand.
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