Playing against a light 3 bettor

[kaby]

btw barrin6 your math is incorrect i think


Fold equity to make it neutral ev? Where x= fold equity%

0=x(89)+(1-x)(-$124)
0=89-124+124x
0=124x-35
35=124x
x=28%

second line should be 0=89x-124+124x
so for 88:
0=89x-124+124x
124=89x+124x
124=213x
x=124/213=.58 = we need him to fold 58% of his range which is close (i don't feel like counting combinations atm [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

and that's why 56s is a lot better, vs your callrange we have 22.8% equity

=>

EV if villain folds to shove=$89

If i shove, I have 22.8% to win

EV of shoving and being behind
EV=(22.8%)(416)+(71.2%)(-183)
EV=94.8-130.3
EV=-35.5$

=>

Fold equity to make it neutral ev? Where x= fold equity%

0=x(89)+(1-x)(-$35.5)
0=89x-35.5+35.5x
0=124.5x-35.5
35.5=124.5x
x=28.5% => we only need him to fold 30% of the time which he'll certainly will

[Barrin6]

[ QUOTE ]
btw barrin6 your math is incorrect i think


Fold equity to make it neutral ev? Where x= fold equity%

0=x(89)+(1-x)(-$124)
0=89-124+124x
0=124x-35
35=124x
x=28%

second line should be 0=89x-124+124x
so for 88:
0=89x-124+124x
124=89x+124x
124=213x
x=124/213=.58 = we need him to fold 58% of his range which is close (i don't feel like counting combinations atm [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

and that's why 56s is a lot better, vs your callrange we have 22.8% equity

=>

EV if villain folds to shove=$89

If i shove, I have 22.8% to win

EV of shoving and being behind
EV=(22.8%)(416)+(71.2%)(-183)
EV=94.8-130.3
EV=-35.5$

=>

Fold equity to make it neutral ev? Where x= fold equity%

0=x(89)+(1-x)(-$35.5)
0=89x-35.5+35.5x
0=124.5x-35.5
35.5=124.5x
x=28.5% => we only need him to fold 30% of the time which he'll certainly will

[/ QUOTE ]

[censored]

[Barrin6]

With 85hh you have 19% equity

[Speedlimits]

call this all day. shoving is pretty spewy.

[kaby]

[ QUOTE ]
call this all day. shoving is pretty spewy.

[/ QUOTE ]

pot is ~130$ with ~130 behind

what are we doing when checked to on a turn blank? what are we doing when checked to on a turn A/K/J/T/9? what are we doing when he shoves (or bets, doesn't matter) a turn blank, what are we doing when he shoves a turn 9/T/J? what are we doing when he shoves a turn A/K?

i don't see how you can do anything but shove or fold the flop without a very good read on his 2nd barrel frequencies (always, never, ...) tbh

[cheer]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd rather have 65s but i don't hate it

especially because without history he'll pbb fold TT-JJ

[/ QUOTE ]
88>65s [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[kaby]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd rather have 65s but i don't hate it

especially because without history he'll pbb fold TT-JJ

[/ QUOTE ]
88>65s [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

how is having way worse equity when called a good thing? it's not like he's calling our shove with 77 and 76s is not enough combinations to have a significant impact on the math presented above

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd rather have 65s but i don't hate it

especially because without history he'll pbb fold TT-JJ

[/ QUOTE ]
88>65s [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Board: 6c 4s Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.965% 23.96% 00.00% 10912 1.50 { 6s5s }
Hand 1: 76.035% 76.03% 00.00% 34625 1.50 { QQ+, 66, 44, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo }

(range taken from Barrin's post earlier in the thread when he figured out that 88 had 9% equity against this range.

[Fonkey123]

Who cares about his calling range when he's bluffing so often?

[yad]

[ QUOTE ]
Who cares about his calling range when he's bluffing so often?

[/ QUOTE ]

you should care. it dramatically affects your overall equity.

This is why I think it's much better to do this with AJ (not that calling pf with AJ would be good, but you get the point) rather than 88.