Jermain Taylor vs. Kell Pavlik 9-29

[Tuds75]

Taylor - 126
Pavlik + 116

Rounds 11.5
OVER +111
UNDER -121

What a great fight that the boxing fans are finally going to be rewarded and will not have to pay out $49.95 for this fight (I guess we can be thankful neither of these guys are Mexican, because if they were Arum would have put this on PPV so fast your head would spin).

This is really a great match-up in so many ways. Both fighters are the obvious top 2 fighters at one of the glamor divisions in boxing (heavy and welter being the other). Each fighter is undefeated so "Somebodies' 'O' has got to go". Each is young and fresh and are entering the primes in their fighting career. And minus Taylor's last few performances each fighters fights a very entertaining style.

So on to the fight break down. I see Jermain Taylor as 2 separate boxers. The first was a rising prospect, the best young prospect in boxing and this was only a few years ago. He was using his jab and straight accurate punches to punish opponents. Taylor would then fight one of the best middleweights in boxing history(Bernard Hopkins) and ended his run of 20 straight title defense. He gave Hopkins his immediate rematch and in turn beat Hopkins again. Then after those 2 tough fights he goes out and fights Winky Wright a top 3 P4P fighter and a guy no one wanted to face and Taylor fought Winky to a hard fought draw. But that was the Jermain Taylor of a few years ago. The new Jermain has been fighting guys who are coming up in weight, so Jermain has a huge size difference over all of them and what does Jermain to in these fights with guys who shouldn't even be in the same ring with Taylor? Well Jermain doesn't finish either fighter, but also comes off looking like a totally different fighter from his championship fights with Hopkins and Taylor. Taylor looks sloppy and confused in the ring with the smaller guys. He abandoned his fierce jab and pinpoint straights and opted for large/long looping KO punches and more clinching then a middleweight should ever do. So the real question is which Jermain Taylor will show up.

I remember watching Taylor/Kassim Ouma and thinking if Taylor fought Edison Miranda, Miranda would no doubt finish Taylor. Well at that time Miranda was the young big hitting prospect in the Middleweight division and Kelly Pavlik was an after thought. Kelly and Miranda would meet last year and Kelly Pavlik schooled Miranda before finally KOing him. Pavlik showing everyone that HE was the big stronger puncher not Miranda and the HE Pavlik is the future of the division not Miranada. So to sum it all up, if Taylor fights like he did againt Ouma or Spinks, Pavlik will beat him and most there is a good chance of finishing him off...But that is big "if".

I think Jermain Taylor is a the better of the 2 fighters. That is to take nothing away from Pavlik who is great fighter, but Taylor is just a really special fighter. A similar example would be Mayweather/Hatton. Mayweather is a supernatural talent when it comes to boxing and Hatton is a one of the best right now, but Mayweather could go down as one of the best ever. So if Taylor can revert to the form that he used to get to the title and win I see him being able to go back to using his jab to control the fight and his opponent. Taylor will keep the big punching Pavlik on his heels and keep him unsteady with his jab and play of the jab to be able to land good scoring 1-2 combos. Pavlik is the type of fighter who "never takes a step backwards" and will be in Taylor's face all day, which could be a good thing or a bad thing. If Taylor is his old self he will jab and frustrate and pick apart Taylor. If Taylor fights like he have seen him fight recently, having Pavlik continue to stand in front of him and trade will frustrate Taylor and he will end up abandoning the jab looking to trade with the bigger puncher Pavlik, which I would guess is what Pavlik is looking/hoping for Jermain to do. If Jermain Taylor gets uncomfortable with Pavlik continuing coming foward throwing big strong punches, I think Taylor will be in for a long night.

So I will leave it up to you. For the people who think the the Jermain Taylor we have seen the last few fights is the Jermain Taylor that will show up on Saturday then I pick Pavlik, but if you think Jermain Taylor will go back to his fighting form that brought him championships/fame/money then I would go with Jarmain Taylor in this one.

I think the line should be a little more towards -165 to -175 Taylor, just on the fact he has fought such a higher caliber of fighter then Pavlik, but that alone doesn't mean Taylor is the obvious choice. There is a reason Pavlik's odds have been close to EVEN for a few months now.

I think this fight will go to the score cards more often then not, but I can definately see a KO by either fighter, but more likely by Pavlik.

Personal, If I was going to bet on this fight I would bet Taylor at -121 and then taking betting half of whatever I bet on Taylor straight-up, on Taylor by DEC at +256. I feel Taylor wins this fight be DEC 7/10 times (when he wins that is). But I will be rooting for Pavlik. I really like this guy and think he is a really down to earth guy who seems like a classy guy and it seems like he brings and makes every fight entertaining by trying to finish every opponent in every fight and which we know Jermain Taylor doesn't always show up and is happy just to survive then to win with flair.

Enjoy the Fight,
Tuds