NL100 AK TPTK against donk

[spector]

Villian here is 72/32/3 over a smallish sample
of under 100 hands but hes playing like he is used to those stats but is running hot and has been showing down a lot of (really lucky) winners. Against any other player at the table this is pretty much an insta fold but villian could easily be overplaying TP but just as easily could have a set or a [censored] two pair.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $95
UTG+1: $123.35
MP1: $83.50
Hero: $139.90
CO: $37.50
Button: $123.80
SB: $100.70
BB: $137.55

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $5</font>, 3 folds, BB calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($12.5, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $10</font>, BB calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($32.5, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $30</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises all-in $122.55</font>, Hero...

[Stonewalled]

Insta-call against this guy. TPTK is fine to get your stack in against a maniac on this board.

[CazicT]

My best guess is a pair + a draw here. If he made a cheap two pair or something oh well, you still have some outs anyway.

If he had alot more money I could see contemplating a fold, but for this price against this player calling is easy.

[smw1992]

I don't think this is an easy call. I think he has 2 pair but I ran into this same situation recently at this level and called and villain showed 97o. When playing against a donk with those numbers you never know but you have shown strength and he doesn't care. I would probably fold, especially since he is running hot, and wait to get all-in at a better time.

[CazicT]

To fold, you would have to know that he would barely ever semi-bluff here.

I happen think the villian would frequently semi-bluff here.

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is an easy call. I think he has 2 pair but I ran into this same situation recently at this level and called and villain showed 97o. When playing against a donk with those numbers you never know but you have shown strength and he doesn't care. I would probably fold, especially since he is running hot, and wait to get all-in at a better time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's an easy call either. The fact that he is playing so loose puts him on ATC which could have connected with this board in just about anyway. He on the other hand puts you on at least AK with your betting.

I'm not convinced he doesn't have a big hand here often enough to make a fold right since you have bet strong on both flop and turn.

[Stonewalled]

Hero's getting ~ 2:1 to call. I think he's good at least 33% of the time b/c a guy like this is going to show up with air, a worse kicker, mid-pair that often.

[raistlinx]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero's getting ~ 2:1 to call. I think he's good at least 33% of the time b/c a guy like this is going to show up with air, a worse kicker, mid-pair that often.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know, but I'm not convinced it is enough since he has bet hard both streets. If he bet 1/2 the pot or something on the turn I would be more inclined to call. Hero has shown considerable strength in the hand.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero's getting ~ 2:1 to call. I think he's good at least 33% of the time b/c a guy like this is going to show up with air, a worse kicker, mid-pair that often.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know, but I'm not convinced it is enough since he has bet hard both streets. If he bet 1/2 the pot or something on the turn I would be more inclined to call. Hero has shown considerable strength in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it's just that I see guys like this -- he's 72 vpip, a true maniac -- bet scare cards and push marginal hands so often.

[DuDot]

I would base my decision on how agg and how intelligent the guy has been postflop. There's a difference between being loose, being aggressive, and being dumb. He check raised the turn after you fired two big shots - that's usually a strong hand.