Insanity rating pls: 2/4 AA fold

ChrisV · #1 08-29-2007, 05:30 AM

Villain is 24/14/3 over 300 hands and is a good, thinking player. He probably perceives me as a tightish TAG. He tanked a bit before checking flop and also a little bit before checking turn.

Hero: $355 in chips
Villain: $425.30 in chips

Dealt to Hero [ A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]

UTG: Fold
Hero: Raise ($16.00)
CO: Fold
Btn: Fold
Villain (SB): Raise ($52.00)
BB: Fold
Hero: Call ($38.00)

Flop [ K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ] ($108)

Villain: Check
Hero: Check

Turn [ 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ] ($108)

Villain: Check
Hero: Bet ($70)
Villain: Call

River [ 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ] ($248)

Villain: Bet ($168)

Now I know what you're thinking.... oh no he din't.
But yes. Yes I did.

Hero: Fold.

My thinking is as follows: the threebet here, from a relatively tight player from the SB, reraising a guy he knows is tight, should probably be JJ+, AK. (Include TT if you like).

In the event that he has decided to threebet me with a bad hand, which I think is unlikely, then there's the question of why he doesnt continue betting on a Kxx flop, surely an ideal flop to fold out a lot of hands that call a threebet in position. If he doesn't bet because he's scared I called with a premium hand, then there's no reason for him later to change his assessment and call the turn.

The main argument against him holding JJ or QQ is the bet on the river. If he suspects me of bluffing, normal would be to check and let me hang myself with a further bluff. The river bet out is guaranteed to fold all worse hands and get calls from all better hands. This guy is definitely good enough to realise this.

AA and AK are more likely candidates, but there are still a few strange things about his line. Checking the flop and turn is reasonable, but many players would choose the straightforward line of betting the flop. The main argument against these hands, though, is the flat call on the turn. Calling the turn and betting the river has zero advantages compared to checkraising the turn. It's very unlikely I am calling further bets with a pair lower than kings (maybe QQ/JJ, but probably not), so all it achieves is giving me a free card to spike a set if I have a small-mid pair.

KK is the only hand that makes perfect sense. The flop is way too clean for me to have a hand, unless I have AA or AK in which case I'm probably getting stacked no matter what. So he checks to let me hit my hand. On the turn, giving me a free card to spike something is a plus rather than a minus. On the river, he figures I'm checking behind most of my hands and fires trying to get a call from JJ or QQ. The slightly less than allin amount ($168, while my stack is $233) looks like some kind of misguided psychological thing.

Obviously this isn't going to be KK every time. I need it to be KK more than 70% of the time to make money on the fold. If you accept my range of JJ+, AK for the threebet, then his hand will be KK 3 in 20 times given this flop. Given the peculiarities of his line, I felt he has KK an awful lot here. My estimate would be about 85%.

Please choose from the following:

- OP is completely sane, I fold aces here all the time
- OP is making a twisted kind of sense
- I have no opinion on OP's sanity
- OP will be fine as long as he remembers to take his medication
- OP should be committed to an asylum

Big_Jim · #2 08-29-2007, 05:43 AM

ChrisV · #3 08-29-2007, 05:45 AM

Gotcha.

What hands do you expect to see filling up the > 30% of his range that isn't KK?

Big_Jim · #4 08-29-2007, 05:47 AM

AK alone makes this a call. Who knows what other random crap he might have.

Big_Jim · #5 08-29-2007, 05:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Gotcha.

What hands do you expect to see filling up the < 30% of his range that isn't KK?

[/ QUOTE ]
[/nit]

jj12 · #6 08-29-2007, 05:52 AM

instacall. LOL

Allinlife · #7 08-29-2007, 05:53 AM

this is a pretty sick fold I think it's very close. I think it makes sense that he can play AK that way, but just KK much more likely. most TAG's wouldn't bother checking that flop with AK they'd just cbet it majority of the time unless they know the other guy is just a bad bluffing type which is not the way I'd expect him to perceive you as.

soah · #8 08-29-2007, 05:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Gotcha.

What hands do you expect to see filling up the > 30% of his range that isn't KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

ace king

like 70% of the time or more

FlyingStart · #9 08-29-2007, 06:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

qft

this post just got me off tilt

Allinlife · #10 08-29-2007, 06:00 AM

I think it's a mistake to automatically look at board and go ZOMG DONT FOLD. look at that turn-river line that's nearly never a bluff or bluff catchers trying to bluff a better hand.
so it looks like he has KK or AK, less AK combinations due to hero having AA, makes this a very close decision.

I do this kind of "omg can't fold tptk in 3 bet pots" "can't fold QQ pf to 50bb" sorta justifications very often and I think it's costing me sklansky$. I also think this is the kind of spots that people allude to when describing one of the traits of a sick player, which is "being able to call with near nut low, and folding near nuts". not saying this particular fold is a candidate, but pretty close to that category imo.