How do I avoid the overbet shove here?

[HelixTrix]

Villain has a wide raising range, and I was seriously considering cring the flop with my overcards and 2 backdoor draws. The turn card gives me a real problem though after he checks behind.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Blinds 100/200/10 (9 handed)

CO (t2900)
Button (t3670)
SB (t5115)
Hero (t6664)
UTG (t5150)
UTG+1 (t5269)
MP1 (t3520)
MP2 (Villain) (t3213)
MP3 (t7290)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">(Villain) raises to t550</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls t350.

Flop: (t980) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Villain checks.

Turn: (t980) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ?</font> (Villain has 2xpot left)

[registrar]

I'd shove pre.

On the turn, it depends on how he bet sizes and how often I think he will bet here. If he's betting anything as pfr checked to twice, then it's obv check-shove. If I think he may check this down, then lead half pot.

[HelixTrix]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd shove pre

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I said he raised quite light, at the time I thought he was a good player whose range in the orange zone from 3 off the button would be heavily skewed towards high cards, so I wasn't in love with my fold equity or my equity against his range which would be marginal. Additionally, I had him down as very aggressive so I thought I would pick up a lot of value from cring his c-bets when I flopped a pair or draw. As it turned out I was wrong in both those assumptions but that was my read at that point.

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, it depends on how he bet sizes and how often I think he will bet here. If he's betting anything as pfr checked to twice, then it's obv check-shove. If I think he may check this down, then lead half pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I had him down as an auto-c-bettor, now I'm confused. Check-shove is obv best if he'll bet but now I don't know. If I bet, the amount is tricky. 3/4 pot is an 'effective shove' because I'm obviously calling a raise and he should expect me to with most of my range. On the flipside, if he just calls I can't bet a very big percentage of the pot when I bluff the river. If I bet smaller, he's more likely to call or raise with hands less than top pair. If I shove, he also makes more hero calls. When I saw the hand he called me with, I realised there had to be a better play because I'm sure he could have folded had I not said 'I'm semibluffing!'

[WarDekar]

I haven't read everything posted, but shove pre

[betgo]

On the turn, I would check. If you bet small, you have to fold to a raise. The alternative is to overbet push or pot it. If you check, you have the option to checkraise with your draw. You can also bluff the river if it is checked through and you miss.

I know everyone says push preflop. That is what I would do, but I don't think the flat call is that bad.

[HelixTrix]

The hand he showed up with after I shoved - 87o. Yeuch. Next time I'll shove pre against that guy. Anyway, having analysed it I think I can show that check-raising is more profitable than shoving.

Fairly optimal raising range from 3 off btn with M = 6:

AT+, KJ+, KTs, QJ, QTs, JTs, 77+

This entire range flops a made hand or a draw so it's probably reasonable not to attempt to refine it based on his check as he presumably mixes in some checks with both types of hand.

Assuming he folds (AQ, AT, KQ, KTs, QTs) to a shove

and allowing for hero calls with (AK, 77, 99, TT) as well as (AJ, KJ, QJ, JTs, AA-JJ, 88)

that's 43 folds and 85 calls, giving me ev of:

43/128 + 85/128(0.28*3) – 85/128(0.72*2) = -0.06 pots

Now let’s assume if I check he bets AK half the time, bets all the other hands he would have called a shove with, and bets QTs as a bluff. We’ll assume his bet size is 2/3 pot. He folds (AK, 77, 99, TT, QTs) to a check-raise, and calls the rest. The rest of his range he checks back with the intention of showing down and often calling a river bet.

So he bets 82 hands, of which 27 fold to a cr and 45 call. My ev is:

46/128(0.4) + 82/128*27/82*5/3 + 82/128*45/82(0.26*3) - 82/128*45/82 (0.74*2) = 0.25 pots