Ask mrbaseball about trading for a living - Page 5

pig4bill · #41 09-09-2007, 12:52 AM

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I usually read one or two new trading books a month as well as the magaizines "Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities" and "Futures" every month.

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What do you think of SFO magazine? It seems fairly hardcore to me, but I can't really tell since I don't dabble in derivatives much.

mrbaseball · #42 09-09-2007, 05:41 AM

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What do you think of SFO magazine?

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I'm not really familiar with it. I have seen a copy or two laying around the office from time to time but never really read it. I also get a free copy of Trader Monthly every month which in actuality has absolutely nothing to do with trading.

#43 09-09-2007, 08:07 AM

superadvisor · #44 09-09-2007, 09:14 AM

Do you think it's possible through some miracle of good fortune that over the years you have made better than average choices in your life and just beat variance? or is there some aspect of your particular existence that makes you special in that you won while thousands of others have failed? Can you explain why you have come out on top and others who have claimed to be just as smart as you have failed? is it luck or do you have the something special that nobody else has? and if you're special, what makes you special?

mrbaseball · #45 09-09-2007, 10:08 AM

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Why don't you trade on your own bankroll instead of working for a firm? Do you think you could make more money if you were to trade on your own (even if the variance where higher)?

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A lot of what I do is beyond the scope of an individual bankroll. Lots of very big cash, big margin calls and exchange relationships are the norm for a lot of the strategies I use and manage. It takes an organization to really swim in the deep end of the pool.

I have traded on my own (years ago) and the heat is very very hot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] At this point in my career and experience level I am confident I would do just fine with some of the smaller strategies and daytrading methods I use. I suspect I will never "really" retire. Even when I do (retire) I'm sure I'll have a trading room setup in my home (I do now by the way) and always be messing around with some idea or another. It is my passion.

superadvisor · #46 09-09-2007, 10:18 AM

mebaseball, do you think 20 years is a long time in the grand scheme of things? Do you think that if you were a trader in the 1920's that you would have survived and come out on top by the 1930's? Do you think it's possible that from 1987 to 2007 that the markets have been coincidentally stable (thanks to the federal reserve for bailing us out of the NASDAQ crash of 2001) and that you are just lucky to be in the situation you are in at the time you are in? Is it possible that a serious economic downswing could ruin you or are you hedged against such a tragedy?

mrbaseball · #47 09-09-2007, 10:24 AM

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Do you think it's possible through some miracle of good fortune that over the years you have made better than average choices in your life and just beat variance? or is there some aspect of your particular existence that makes you special in that you won while thousands of others have failed? Can you explain why you have come out on top and others who have claimed to be just as smart as you have failed? is it luck or do you have the something special that nobody else has? and if you're special, what makes you special?

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Good questions! I don't think I am special first off. But I have always taken a survivalist attitude and approach. My goal was to have a career. There will always be another trade so why go to the mat with any one trade in particular? I have seen many guys do phenominally well only to blow out in spectacular fashion. I have never gotten greedy and I have never gotten cocky. As a result I have carved out a very nice life for myself.

I have seen the "fooled by randomness" effect many times over both with others and myself. And early on in my career way before fooled by randomness was even written I had that notion in the back of my mind. That is, that my results were possibly fluky or lucky or random. Some of them were [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] But I always stayed grounded through the good times and bad and never got full of myself. The big ego traders are a dime a dozen. They shoot hard and heavy from the hip and get fooled into thinking they actually know everything. They don't and I have seen a million of bite the dust. I have also seen a very select few take the money and run. Then there are the really great traders who are truly magnificient. As Bobby Jones said about Jack Nicholas "they play a game I am unfamiliar with".

I have had my share of luck both the good and the bad. But the reason I am still doing what I love is that I never lost sight of my desire for a long and lucrative career and took a do or die shot at glory and riches. That is not to imply that I haven't been in do die situations [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

mrbaseball · #48 09-09-2007, 10:37 AM

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mebaseball, do you think 20 years is a long time in the grand scheme of things?

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I think it is in trading.

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Do you think that if you were a trader in the 1920's that you would have survived and come out on top by the 1930's?

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Not sure? I think I would have done fine since I would have employed the same attitude and principles I do now. A lot of what I do is arbtrage and trading based on and created for computers. Plus a lot of the technical tools I use weren't invented yet. Plus I am an options guy for the most part and they didn't have options then. Maybe I wouldn't have done so well afterall [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Do you think it's possible that from 1987 to 2007 that the markets have been coincidentally stable (thanks to the federal reserve for bailing us out of the NASDAQ crash of 2001) and that you are just lucky to be in the situation you are in at the time you are in?

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Lots of volatilty pockets in the last 20 years. And voltilty pockets (like now!) are way better for traders than stability. Economic stability is one of the things that drove me out of bond options. Things were just too damn stable!

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Is it possible that a serious economic downswing could ruin you or are you hedged against such a tragedy?

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Anything is possible. And that is something every trader needs to understand, ANYTHING is possible. My personal trading and strategies are pretty much impervious to that. Like I say I do lots of arbitrage, limited downside option strategies and inter day stuff. Risk management is job one for a trader. Thne good stuff will happen as long as you avoid or minimize the bad stuff.

APXG · #49 09-09-2007, 12:07 PM

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Then there are the really great traders who are truly magnificient. As Bobby Jones said about Jack Nicholas "they play a game I am unfamiliar with".

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What it is that separates "them" from you? What are your weaknesses / unfixable limitations that they don't have? Do they play "better" defense? Have they just worked harder / had more passion? Locate & correct their mistakes better? etc etc

Obviously there are no definite answers as the traits it takes to be best change with the times, but any thoughts on the topic are greatly appreciated.

mrbaseball · #50 09-09-2007, 01:19 PM

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What are your weaknesses / unfixable limitations that they don't have?

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My biggest weaknesses are my risk aversion (which can also be a strength) and my tendancy to overanalyze situations. I am careful which sometimes leads to being a bit too careful. The leverage in the options and commodities markets can be a double edged sword. It's so insanely easy to get in big trouble you have to stay on your toes. I am sometimes slow to react to new opportunites and this causes me to either miss or get in too late or become too frustrated to pull the trigger. I am constantly working on this. A lot of where I am is also due to the constraints of my responsibilties. But I am perfectly happy with where I am.

I am much more a strategist than tactian. My strength is in looking at things a bit differently and figuring ways to profit from it. The great floor and screen traders are the best tactians. This is why I analyze a lot of non-mainstream trading opportunites. I am always looking for a new way to reinvent the wheel and search out niche trades in areas others aren't looking. Some of my better arbs are in the gray area that are too big for individuals but too small for Goldman and the big boys to bother with.